7011 Towne Lake Rd · Progress Village, FL 33578

$238,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Townhouse public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2017 1,940 sqft lot $331/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 7011 Towne Lake Rd, a recently updated residence featuring fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout the home. The kitchen is equipped with all stainless steel appliances and includes a functional kitchen island. A primary bedroom contains a practical walk in closet. This property is a perfect blend of comfort and style, making it a must-see. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Double sinks
• New flooring
• Kitchen island

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE SINKS
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#298 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ippolito Elementary School (math 35% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 553 students, 70% FRL); Giunta Middle School (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 857 students, 74% FRL); Spoto High School (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #434 of 667 statewide, top 66%, 1,823 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,580 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.99%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-52,334
• Equity at exit: $35,487

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-80,550
• Equity at exit: $20,578

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33578

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,374 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,700/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$331
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,515

Max offer price $218,431

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-43	+0% $-111	+5% $-178	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-298	-5% $-205	+0% $-111	+5% $-17	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $9	-0.5pp $-50	base $-111	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7007 Towne Lake Rd Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,800	$2.71	26d	1	0.01mi
6959 Towne Lake Rd Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,050	$1.46	0d	1	0.04mi
6824 Holly Heath Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,095	$1.50	1d	1	0.10mi
6705 Holly Heath Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1420	$2,150	$1.51	17d	1	0.14mi
7012 Holly Heath Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,000	$1.43	26d	1	0.16mi
6978 Holly Heath Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,100	$1.50	26d	1	0.16mi
6614 Holly Heath Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	3.0	1540	$2,350	$1.53	26d	1	0.22mi
7514 Forest Mere Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1716	$4,000	$2.33	26d	1	0.29mi
8220 Midnight Sun Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,900	$1.49	26d	1	0.32mi
6925 Towering Spruce Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1176	$1,795	$1.53	17d	1	0.40mi
6925 Towering Spruce Dr Unit 1 Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1176	$1,895	$1.61	26d	1	0.40mi
8317 Moccasin Trail Dr Unit 1227829P Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$4,525	$2.88	18d	1	0.46mi
8530 Quarter Horse Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,000	$1.56	13d	1	0.49mi
8530 Quarter Horse Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,000	$1.56	26d	1	0.49mi
8969 Indigo Trail Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1707	$2,200	$1.29	26d	1	0.51mi
8959 Indigo Trail Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1785	$2,200	$1.23	26d	1	0.52mi
7046 Grand Elm Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,000	$1.43	19d	1	0.53mi
6768 Breezy Palm Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	1298	$1,800	$1.39	22d	1	0.54mi
7014 Grand Elm Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1374	$2,090	$1.52	26d	1	0.54mi
8933 Indigo Trail Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1785	$2,295	$1.29	18d	1	0.54mi
7113 Grand Elm Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,900	$1.36	13d	1	0.55mi
7102 Summer Holly Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1576	$2,100	$1.33	26d	1	0.58mi
6714 Breezy Palm Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1609	$2,200	$1.37	7d	1	0.58mi
8868 Indigo Trail Loop Unit 8868 Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1707	$2,300	$1.35	5d	1	0.59mi
8549 Deer Chase Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,300	$1.44	18d	1	0.63mi
9092 Moonlit Meadows Loop Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,850	$1.82	15d	1	0.63mi
9120 Moonlit Meadows Loop Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1260	$1,850	$1.47	26d	1	0.64mi
9122 Moonlit Meadows Loop Unit 1 Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,800	$1.77	0d	1	0.64mi
8683 Holly Grove Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1525	$2,514	$1.65	1d	5	0.72mi
8828 Kanawha Rd Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	26d	1	1.03mi
9515 Grovedale Cir #101 Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,800	$1.56	26d	1	1.14mi
9520 Amberdale Ct #101 Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1151	$2,150	$1.87	7d	1	1.14mi
6118 Magnolia Park Blvd Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,600	$1.68	26d	1	1.17mi
6101 Innovation Way Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1089	$2,250	$2.07	6d	12	1.23mi
6425 Cypressdale Dr #101 Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,950	$1.69	26d	1	1.24mi
5940 Sweet Birch Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$2,300	$1.48	1d	1	1.26mi
9736 Carlsdale Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1575	$1,850	$1.17	17d	1	1.32mi
9519 Newdale Way #201 Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,650	$1.43	26d	1	1.35mi
9538 Newdale Way #101 Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,895	$1.65	26d	1	1.36mi
9520 Newdale Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,700	$1.48	3d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $331 · $3,972/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $238,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $238,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $238,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,000 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $238,000 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Welcome to 7011 Towne Lake Rd, a recently updated residence featuring fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout the home. The kitchen is equipped with all stainless steel appliances and includes a functional kitchen island. A primary bedroom contains a practical walk in closet. This property is a perfect blend of comfort and style, making it a must-see. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

17. 2026-04-16
    price $248,000 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Welcome to 7011 Towne Lake Rd, a recently updated residence featuring fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout the home. The kitchen is equipped with all stainless steel appliances and includes a functional kitchen island. A primary bedroom contains a practical walk in closet. This property is a perfect blend of comfort and style, making it a must-see. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

18. 2026-04-02
    price $256,000 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Welcome to 7011 Towne Lake Rd, a recently updated residence featuring fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout the home. The kitchen is equipped with all stainless steel appliances and includes a functional kitchen island. A primary bedroom contains a practical walk in closet. This property is a perfect blend of comfort and style, making it a must-see. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

19. 2026-03-17
    listed $260,000 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Welcome to 7011 Towne Lake Rd, a recently updated residence featuring fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout the home. The kitchen is equipped with all stainless steel appliances and includes a functional kitchen island. A primary bedroom contains a practical walk in closet. This property is a perfect blend of comfort and style, making it a must-see. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

20. 2026-03-05
    soldstatus $225,200
21. 2020-03-04
    soldstatus $175,000
22. 2020-02-14
    soldstatus $175,000 Sold 941-char remark

    Show marketing remark (941 chars)

    Gorgeous Taylor Morrison 3 bed, 2.5 bath townhome in the Oak Creek neighborhood in Riverview. Open the door to the foyer which flows into the open floorplan kitchen/living room combo. The kitchen has all stainless steel appliances, lots of cabinet space, recessed lighting, a walk-in pantry, and a breakfast bar. Triple sliding glass doors open to a rear patio and grassy open yard. Upstairs is the Master Suite with a walk-in closet and a private ensuite bath. There are two more bedrooms with lots of closet space. The washer/dryer is conveniently located upstairs. The single car garage has beautiful epoxy floors complete with garage door opener. The monthly HOA fees include Basic cable and Internet, water/sewer, trash, lawn maintenance, community pool, and playground. Plenty of guest parking. Close to shopping, restaurants, excellent schools and hospitals, I-75, I-4, the Crosstown Expressway, and everything Tampa Bay has to offer.

23. 2020-01-01
    status Pending 941-char remark

    Show marketing remark (941 chars)

    Gorgeous Taylor Morrison 3 bed, 2.5 bath townhome in the Oak Creek neighborhood in Riverview. Open the door to the foyer which flows into the open floorplan kitchen/living room combo. The kitchen has all stainless steel appliances, lots of cabinet space, recessed lighting, a walk-in pantry, and a breakfast bar. Triple sliding glass doors open to a rear patio and grassy open yard. Upstairs is the Master Suite with a walk-in closet and a private ensuite bath. There are two more bedrooms with lots of closet space. The washer/dryer is conveniently located upstairs. The single car garage has beautiful epoxy floors complete with garage door opener. The monthly HOA fees include Basic cable and Internet, water/sewer, trash, lawn maintenance, community pool, and playground. Plenty of guest parking. Close to shopping, restaurants, excellent schools and hospitals, I-75, I-4, the Crosstown Expressway, and everything Tampa Bay has to offer.

24. 2019-12-12
    listed $169,900 Active 941-char remark

    Show marketing remark (941 chars)

    Gorgeous Taylor Morrison 3 bed, 2.5 bath townhome in the Oak Creek neighborhood in Riverview. Open the door to the foyer which flows into the open floorplan kitchen/living room combo. The kitchen has all stainless steel appliances, lots of cabinet space, recessed lighting, a walk-in pantry, and a breakfast bar. Triple sliding glass doors open to a rear patio and grassy open yard. Upstairs is the Master Suite with a walk-in closet and a private ensuite bath. There are two more bedrooms with lots of closet space. The washer/dryer is conveniently located upstairs. The single car garage has beautiful epoxy floors complete with garage door opener. The monthly HOA fees include Basic cable and Internet, water/sewer, trash, lawn maintenance, community pool, and playground. Plenty of guest parking. Close to shopping, restaurants, excellent schools and hospitals, I-75, I-4, the Crosstown Expressway, and everything Tampa Bay has to offer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,700 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,700 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$3,700
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − HOA: −$3,972
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$5,183
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,244
• After-tax cash flow: $-85/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Progress Village

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #298
• US rank: #5091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Progress Village, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 60,651
• Household income: $85,921
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 23% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.42%
• Current HPI: 326.0368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+40.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $238,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $248,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $256,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $225,200 Public Records
• 2020-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-14 Sold (MLS) $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-12 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+17.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,700 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.