Addison Plan · Fort Worth, TX 76052

$439,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,860 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this brand new Addison floorplan. This layout delivers all of the must-haves you're looking for in a spacious 2 story home design such as tall ceilings, exceptional natural light, plenty of storage space, a large upstairs game room, and dozens of options to personalize your new home. Continue inside to explore everything this Addison plan has to offer.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 79 days

🏗️ New construction. The $439,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $627,352.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $313k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1083 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $312,992 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.73%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $627,352
• List price: $439,990
• Delta: -29.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 Lonesome Star Trl	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,812 (-2%)	0mo	$697,770	$248	71
225 Lonesome Star Trl	0.59mi	4/3.5	2,701 (-6%)	2mo	$585,500	$217	60
549 Westwood Way Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,994 (+5%)	7mo	$650,000	$217	58
573 Long Meadow Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,903 (+2%)	13mo	$625,000	$215	55
516 Singing Quail Trl	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,519 (-12%)	3mo	$675,000	$268	53
408 Lonesome Star Trl	0.43mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,965 (+4%)	22mo	$689,000	$232	47
717 Lonesome Prairie Trl	0.63mi	4/3.0	3,217 (+12%)	6mo	$785,000	$244	45
116 Lonesome Trl	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,594 (-9%)	10mo	$515,000	$199	43
513 Long Meadow Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,062 (+7%)	8mo	$500,000	$163	42
495 Long Meadow Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	3,048 (+7%)	16mo	$525,000	$172	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -42.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-226,190
• Equity at exit: $93,540

10-year hold

• IRR: -84.8%
• Equity multiple: -1.12×
• Total profit: $-372,972
• Equity at exit: $54,242

Cash invested: $175,659 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76052

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1083
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,130 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,290
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$784 /mo · $9,410/yr
• Insurance: −$261
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$657
• Net cashflow: $-1,863

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,488

Max offer price $357,794

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,838
• Closing costs: $18,821
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11536 Harp Ln Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,800	$1.45	3d	1	0.77mi
11540 Twining Branch Cir Haslet, TX	5.0	4.0	3327	$3,250	$0.98	20d	1	0.78mi
11540 Twining Branch Cir Haslet, TX	5.0	4.0	3327	$3,250	$0.98	43d	1	0.78mi
937 Crest Breeze Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	3.5	3500	$3,061	$0.87	24d	1	0.86mi
482 Prairie View Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2229	$3,095	$1.39	12d	1	0.93mi
201 Roundstone Rd Haslet, TX	5.0	3.0	2779	$3,750	$1.35	19d	1	0.94mi
11332 Gold Canyon Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,195	$1.10	16d	1	0.98mi
252 Drumcliffe Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1931	$2,595	$1.34	7d	1	1.00mi
209 Irish Moss Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	2173	$2,450	$1.13	1d	1	1.02mi
1104 Pinnacle Ridge Rd Haslet, TX	5.0	4.0	3655	$3,250	$0.89	43d	1	1.07mi
1064 Agape Dr Haslet, TX	5.0	3.5	3261	$3,800	$1.17	24d	1	1.11mi
12424 Brunal Dr Fort Worth, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.5	1295	$3,271	$2.53	1d	165	1.34mi
10813 Middleglen Rd Haslet, TX	4.0	2.5	2350	$2,395	$1.02	2d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $439,990 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,990 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,990 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $439,990 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,990 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,990 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $439,990 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $439,990 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $439,990 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $439,990 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $439,990 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,990 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,990 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-03-31
    listed $439,990 Active 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Step into this brand new Addison floorplan. This layout delivers all of the must-haves you're looking for in a spacious 2 story home design such as tall ceilings, exceptional natural light, plenty of storage space, a large upstairs game room, and dozens of options to personalize your new home. Continue inside to explore everything this Addison plan has to offer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,141
• − Property taxes: −$9,410
• − Insurance: −$3,137
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,005
• − Management: −$3,005
• − Depreciation: −$18,250
• Taxable loss: −$34,389
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,253
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,249
• Household income: $143,555
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 358.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Black 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.77%
• Current HPI: 235.7417
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $439,990 Zillow