3830 Kiestmeadow Dr · Dallas, TX 75233

$280,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,394 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1970 Est $294k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

OPEN HOUSE . .. This sprawling one-story, 4 BR, 2.5 Bath home sits on almost 1/4 acre in the desirable Kiestmeadow Estates. There are tons of windows for natural light. The curb appeal is a great first impression of & quot; Welcome Home& quot; . The formal living and dining introduce the rest of the home. Spacious, well-maintained, custom cabinetry. This home is perfect for entertaining in the great room, which has a bonus sunken TV room adjacent. The 3 main bedrooms are large enough for a king-size bed set. The hallway is lined with cabinets. Big master BR with separate walk-in closets. There is a separate space for the sunken jacuzzi bathtub. Come see all the details that make thi

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Sunken tv room
• Natural light

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• GREAT ROOM
• SUNKEN TV ROOM
• HALLWAY LINED WITH CABINETS
• SEPARATE WALK-IN CLOSETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1970
• Construction: 1970 construction
• Exterior features: Located in the Oak Cliff subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($246/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Recommended offer: $272k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $294,462
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3215 Kiest Forest Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,467 (+3%)	1mo	$399,000	$162	78
3764 Kiest Valley Pkwy	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,165 (-10%)	3mo	$189,900	$88	70
3315 Cedarcroft Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,180 (-9%)	0mo	$339,900	$156	60
3414 Spruce Valley Ln	0.53mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,362 (-1%)	8mo	$259,900	$110	57
3406 Springwood Ln	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,559 (+7%)	2mo	$415,000	$162	52
3431 Kiesthill Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,728 (+14%)	2mo	$327,000	$120	51
3310 Springwood Pl	0.60mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,341 (-2%)	13mo	$325,000	$139	50
3446 Silverwood Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,246 (-6%)	2mo	$265,000	$118	47
3511 Rio Grande Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,100 (-12%)	3mo	$259,000	$123	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $52,938
• Equity at exit: $144,700

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $166,236
• Equity at exit: $238,878

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75233

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,863 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$656 /mo · $7,875/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,837

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3208 Kiesthill Dr Dallas, TX	5.0	3.5	2664	$2,766	$1.04	22d	1	0.28mi
3240 Springwood Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$2,099	$1.14	16d	1	0.58mi
3837 Kimball Ridge Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	3.0	2135	$3,200	$1.50	18d	1	0.88mi
3425 Shelley Blvd Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	2448	$4,250	$1.74	2d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $280,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $280,000 Active 1213-char remark
15. 1981-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,875 · $656/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,875 · $656/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$7,875
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,748
• − Management: −$2,748
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,019
• After-tax cash flow: $1,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• City population: 1,168,437
• Population (ZIP): 15,775

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Black 25% Two or more races 11% White 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 52% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 370.9766
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $280,000 FSBO.com
• 1981-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,875 · +13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.