435 S Miller Ave · Springfield, MO 65802

$179,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,209 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1962 1.95 ac lot $148/sqft · 22% below area Est $229k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1.95 acre lot
• Built 1962
• Listed 36 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-901/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Willard R-II (rural): math 41% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #83 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 512 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,858 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,671
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -21.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
227 S Lulwood Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+2%)	2mo	$219,900	$179	80
4562 W Tarkio St	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,306 (+8%)	2mo	$239,900	$184	79
343 S Foster Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,261 (+4%)	1mo	$233,000	$185	78
4553 W La Siesta St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,235 (+2%)	5mo	$177,500	$144	76
406 S Casa Grande Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,336 (+10%)	1mo	$233,900	$175	69
4247 W La Siesta Pl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+1%)	4mo	$215,000	$176	68
651 S Mahn Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+8%)	1mo	$239,900	$183	67
4533 W Tarkio St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+13%)	4mo	$225,000	$164	65
4211 W Tarkio St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,246 (+3%)	4mo	$209,900	$168	64
4365 W Juno St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+12%)	2mo	$230,000	$171	62
5021 W Tarkio St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,283 (+6%)	3mo	$225,000	$175	58
413 S Dove Valley Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+13%)	4mo	$235,000	$172	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-31,455
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-23,598
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65802

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 512
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $958/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,384

Max offer price $165,734

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
512 N Mahn Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	23d	1	0.57mi
4149 W Burbank St Unit A Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$900	$0.90	43d	1	0.61mi
1015 S Meteor Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,800	$1.37	13d	1	0.84mi
412 S Duke Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,585	$1.13	13d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $179,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-04-20
   listed $179,000 Active
8. 2015-07-09
   soldstatus
9. 2015-07-09
   soldstatus
10. 2013-03-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $958 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,736 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$779/yr (+$65/mo · 81.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$958
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,237
• − Management: −$1,237
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$4,098
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$983
• After-tax cash flow: $82/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willard R-II
• NCES district ID: 2932010
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,200
• Composite: 39.04/100
• National rank: #4063
• State rank: #83 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 46,739
• Household income: $55,019
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1818.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.72%
• Current HPI: 212.9826
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $179,000 SOMO
• 2015-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $958 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.