2531 Cienaga St #3 · Oceano, CA 93445

$348,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,329 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2010 $262/sqft · 7% above area Est $326k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2531 Cienaga St #3, located in the 55+ Casa Del Rey community—just minutes from the beach, golf courses, shopping, restaurants and all the Central Coast has to offer! This beautifully maintained, 2 bedrooms PLUS bonus room is a move-in ready manufactured home that is filled with natural light and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Built in 2010, the home features vaulted ceilings in the living room and ceiling fans in every room, combining everyday comfort with coastal charm. The spacious kitchen is a true highlight; offering granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, a large center island with optional bar seating and a generous pantry tucked behind double doors. There's also a cozy dining area perfect for everyday meals or entertaining guests. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with its own en-suite bathroom featuring dual sinks, Jacuzzi tub and a private access to the backyard patio. Inside, you’ll also find a well-appointed laundry room with a utility sink and space to hang delicates. A bonus room provides flexibility for a third bedroom, office, or creative space. Enjoy the convenience of multiple outdoor storage spaces too — one of which is an attached, private with a finished workshop area; equipped with electricity. A perfect spot to be handy in. An additional storage shed in the back offers space for more keepsakes and an easy to maintain, wrap around yard for the fur babies too. Don't miss the opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance coastal living in a friendly, active community, with heated pool too! Be sure to see this turn-key home today!

Key facts

• Thoughtful upgrades
• Ceiling fans
• Natural light

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• THOUGHTFUL UPGRADES
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• CEILING FANS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $348k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.5% in Oceano — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#346 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A, health & safety A, housing B; Watch: crime D, amenities D, commute F.
• Lucia Mar Unified (town): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #433 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairgrove Elementary (386 students, 63% FRL); Paulding Middle (536 students, 47% FRL); Arroyo Grande High (1,991 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,104 units permitted in San Luis Obispo County in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Luis Obispo County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $300k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,269 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.54%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,573
• List price: $348,000
• Delta: 6.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2400 Cienaga #69	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+1%)	3mo	$330,000	$246	82
2400 Cienaga #73	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,299 (-2%)	4mo	$255,000	$196	80
2700 Cienaga #55	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,358 (+2%)	2mo	$435,000	$320	80
2400 Cienaga St #21	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,292 (-3%)	9mo	$310,000	$240	74
2400 Cienaga #65	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (+8%)	8mo	$450,000	$314	67
2700 Cienaga #72	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,153 (-13%)	1mo	$446,500	$387	67
2700 Cienaga St #97	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-6%)	12mo	$320,000	$256	64
2550 Cienaga St #4	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+8%)	14mo	$375,000	$260	63
2700 Cienaga St #8	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,453 (+9%)	8mo	$434,000	$299	62
2700 Cienega #98	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+8%)	11mo	$356,000	$247	62
1623 23rd St #23	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,481 (+11%)	10mo	$374,500	$253	54
1241 Farroll #13	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,148 (-14%)	2mo	$300,000	$261	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-38,282
• Equity at exit: $51,888

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-10,505
• Equity at exit: $30,089

Cash invested: $97,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93445

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,953 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $907/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,589

Max offer price $348,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $484	-5% $386	+0% $287	+5% $189	+10% $90
Rent	-10% $54	-5% $170	+0% $287	+5% $404	+10% $520
Rate	-1.0pp $462	-0.5pp $376	base $287	+0.5pp $197	+1.0pp $105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,000
• Closing costs: $10,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1247 Driftwood St Grover Beach, CA	2.0	2.0	1090	$2,600	$2.39	25d	1	0.67mi
1451 16th St Oceano, CA	2.0	2.0	928	$2,800	$3.02	46d	1	0.74mi
502 Morning Rise Ln Arroyo Grande, CA	2.0	2.0	1383	$3,350	$2.42	46d	1	0.80mi
503 Starlight Ln Arroyo Grande, CA	2.0	2.0	1383	$3,250	$2.35	25d	1	0.82mi
435 Walnut St Arroyo Grande, CA	3.0	1.0	1500	$3,000	$2.00	46d	1	0.91mi
1093 Belridge St Oceano, CA	3.0	2.5	1410	$3,200	$2.27	46d	1	1.00mi
813 Valley Rd Arroyo Grande, CA	2.0	2.0	1258	$3,650	$2.90	46d	1	1.17mi
312 S Halcyon Rd Unit B Arroyo Grande, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$3,000	$3.33	46d	1	1.18mi
198 S Elm St Unit C Arroyo Grande, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,375	$2.64	25d	1	1.21mi
326 Creekview Way Arroyo Grande, CA	3.0	3.0	1720	$3,300	$1.92	46d	1	1.24mi
976 S 13th St Apt B Grover Beach, CA	2.0	1.5	944	$2,050	$2.17	25d	1	1.27mi
1036 Baden Ave Grover Beach, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,995	$2.22	46d	1	1.41mi
251 S Oak Park Blvd Grover Beach, CA	2.0	2.0	908	$2,840	$3.13	16d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $348,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $348,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $348,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $348,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $348,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $348,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $348,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $348,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $348,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $348,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $348,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $348,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $348,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $348,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $348,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $348,000 Active 71 DOM
17. 2026-03-20
    listed $365,000 Active 1632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1632 chars)

    Welcome to 2531 Cienaga St #3, located in the 55+ Casa Del Rey community—just minutes from the beach, golf courses, shopping, restaurants and all the Central Coast has to offer! This beautifully maintained, 2 bedrooms PLUS bonus room is a move-in ready manufactured home that is filled with natural light and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Built in 2010, the home features vaulted ceilings in the living room and ceiling fans in every room, combining everyday comfort with coastal charm. The spacious kitchen is a true highlight; offering granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, a large center island with optional bar seating and a generous pantry tucked behind double doors. There's also a cozy dining area perfect for everyday meals or entertaining guests. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with its own en-suite bathroom featuring dual sinks, Jacuzzi tub and a private access to the backyard patio. Inside, you’ll also find a well-appointed laundry room with a utility sink and space to hang delicates. A bonus room provides flexibility for a third bedroom, office, or creative space. Enjoy the convenience of multiple outdoor storage spaces too — one of which is an attached, private with a finished workshop area; equipped with electricity. A perfect spot to be handy in. An additional storage shed in the back offers space for more keepsakes and an easy to maintain, wrap around yard for the fur babies too. Don't miss the opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance coastal living in a friendly, active community, with heated pool too! Be sure to see this turn-key home today!

18. 2026-01-07
    historical
19. 2025-09-05
    price $372,000
20. 2025-07-21
    listed $382,000 Active
21. 2022-01-24
    soldstatus $300,000 Closed Sale
22. 2021-11-30
    status Pending Sale
23. 2021-11-05
    price $310,000
24. 2021-08-12
    listed $315,000 Active
25. 2021-08-10
    historical $315,000
26. 2021-06-11
    soldstatus $269,000 Closed Sale
27. 2021-05-06
    historical Active Under Contract
28. 2021-04-28
    price $289,000
29. 2020-11-28
    price $294,000
30. 2020-10-07
    listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $907 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,645 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,738/yr (+$145/mo · 191.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥80°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,493
• − Property taxes: −$907
• − Insurance: −$1,740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,835
• − Management: −$2,835
• − Depreciation: −$10,124
• Taxable loss: −$2,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$600
• After-tax cash flow: $4,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucia Mar Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623080
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,681
• Composite: 45.19/100
• National rank: #5782
• State rank: #433 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Oceano

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #11833

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A Housing B Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oceano, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,812

Population outlook (San Luis Obispo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 306,977 people
• By 2030: 320,378 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 343,933 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 366,853 · +19.5%
• By 2075: 428,329 · +39.5%
• By 2100: 460,687 · +50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 17% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · San Luis Obispo

• 2024 margin: D (+10.9) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.5pp toward D · 2008: 5.4pp · 2024: 10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.9 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+8.3 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.63%
• Current HPI: 394.4039
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+22.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $365,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $372,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-21 Listed $382,000 CRMLS
• 2022-01-24 Sold (MLS) $300,000 CRMLS
• 2021-11-30 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-11-05 Price Changed $310,000 CRMLS
• 2021-08-12 Listed $315,000 CRMLS
• 2021-08-10 Coming Soon $315,000 CRMLS
• 2021-06-11 Sold (MLS) $269,000 CRMLS
• 2021-05-06 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2021-04-28 Price Changed $289,000 CRMLS
• 2020-11-28 Price Changed $294,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-07 Listed $299,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $907 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.