23750 Carson Dr #34 · Pioneer, CA 95666

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily · 319 Days on market

Built 1978 $66/sqft · 11% below area Est $95k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked into a shady glen, this home offers a serene and picturesque setting within the park. With inviting living spaces and an easy indoor-outdoor flow, it's designed for comfort in every season. The layout feels both cozy and spacious, creating a welcoming vibe the moment you step inside. Inside, you'll find a charming wood stove set in a relaxing nookperfect for winter eveningsalong with an adjacent living room that adds flexibility and comfort. A new evaporative cooler keeps the whole home feeling refreshing in the summer months, and fresh paint and siding bring everything together with a crisp, updated look. The pristine lot enhances the property's natural beauty while giving you room

Key facts

• Cozy wood stove
• New paint
• String patio lights

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW PAINT
• COZY WOOD STOVE
• NEW SWAMP COOLER
• NEW BACK UP PROPANE GENERATOR
• STRING PATIO LIGHTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $874 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#419 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Amador County Unified (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #330 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Amador County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Amador County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 319 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 319 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.07%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,000
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -5.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24291 Carson Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+11%)	6mo	$321,000	$223	44
23970 Woodfern Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,468 (+13%)	18mo	$339,000	$231	44
24301 Carson Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-4%)	22mo	$320,000	$256	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $41,927
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $108,311
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95666

• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $874

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $85,000 Active 319 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 319 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 318 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 317 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 316 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 314 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 313 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 310 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 309 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 308 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 305 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 304 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 303 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 302 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 301 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 3 d/yr ≥98°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $9,714
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,331
• After-tax cash flow: $8,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amador County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,428
• Composite: 26.67/100
• National rank: #7163
• State rank: #330 of 517 in CA

Livability — Pioneer

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #14266

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pioneer, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,089

Population outlook (Amador County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,295 people
• By 2030: 34,147 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 31,618 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 29,913 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 27,308 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 23,465 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scottish 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Amador

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 34.7% · R 62.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.6pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+24.4 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+19.0 2008: R+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.84%
• Current HPI: 143.0962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B