217 Trinity River Holw · San Marcos, TX 78666

$200,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,802 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,227 sqft lot $112/sqft · at area comps Est $211k · at est. $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Highgate - Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner’s suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $201k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.8% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dezavala El (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 575 students, 87% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 63% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1421 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,939 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.78%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,999
• List price: $200,999
• Delta: 4.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 Trinity River Holw	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,802 (0%)	1mo	$219,999	$122	96
220 Trinity River Holw	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+5%)	2mo	$253,990	$134	89
116 Trinity River Holw	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,859 (+3%)	1mo	$244,999	$132	87
132 Stumpy St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (+1%)	1mo	$265,999	$146	83
140 Trinity River Holw	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-8%)	1mo	$243,999	$146	82
220 Stumpy St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (+1%)	1mo	$257,999	$142	81
112 Trinity River Holw	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,922 (+7%)	1mo	$266,999	$139	81
124 Trinity River Holw	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-8%)	1mo	$226,999	$136	81
108 Trinity River Holw	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-7%)	1mo	$251,999	$150	80
140 Stumpy St	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+11%)	2mo	$277,999	$139	71
212 Stumpy St	0.18mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+11%)	1mo	$267,999	$134	71
224 Stumpy St	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+11%)	2mo	$267,999	$134	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-26,234
• Equity at exit: $29,970

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-20,058
• Equity at exit: $17,379

Cash invested: $56,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 59 active · 53 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.1 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $250,999 ($137/sqft)
• Median days on market: 78 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -14.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1421
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,054
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$251 /mo · $3,015/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,841

Max offer price $200,999

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $269	-5% $200	+0% $130	+5% $61	+10% $-9
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $51	+0% $130	+5% $210	+10% $289
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $182	base $130	+0.5pp $78	+1.0pp $25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,250
• Closing costs: $6,030
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	2162	$2,100	$0.97	35d	1	0.10mi
308 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	73d	1	0.10mi
426 Spring River Dr Martindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,250	$1.78	73d	1	1.07mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: River Bridge RanchMonthly HOA fee of $65 covering common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity availablePublic waterPublic sewer
• Home design: 2-story propertyNew construction by LennarSoutheast facingSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Private yardPrivacy fencingInterior, level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeKitchen islandPantryQuartz countersEat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining roomEat-in kitchenKitchen islandMultiple dining areasPantryQuartz countersHigh-speed internetWalk-in closet(s)See remarks for window and accessibility features
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry roomWasher hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-08-08
   pricedays on market $200,999 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $220,999 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $220,999 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $220,999 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $220,999 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $220,999 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $220,999 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $220,999 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $220,999 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $220,999 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $220,999 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $220,999 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    statusdays on market $220,999 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-24
    statusdays on market $220,999 Pending 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-22
    days on market $220,999 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-06-21
    days on market $220,999 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-06-18
    days on market $220,999 Active 42 DOM
18. 2026-06-17
    days on market $220,999 Active 41 DOM
19. 2026-06-16
    days on market $220,999 Active 40 DOM
20. 2026-06-15
    days on market $220,999 Active 39 DOM
21. 2026-06-13
    days on market $220,999 Active 37 DOM
22. 2026-06-09
    days on market $220,999 Active 33 DOM
23. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,999 Active 32 DOM
24. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,999 Active 31 DOM
25. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,999 Active 28 DOM
26. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,999 Active 27 DOM
27. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,999 Active 26 DOM
28. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,999 Active 25 DOM
29. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,999 Active 24 DOM
30. 2026-05-12
    price $220,999 640-char remark
31. 2026-05-08
    price $223,999 640-char remark
32. 2026-05-07
    listed $225,999 Active 640-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,259
• − Property taxes: −$3,015
• − Insurance: −$1,005
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$5,847
• Taxable loss: −$1,690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$406
• After-tax cash flow: $1,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 27 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is move-in ready with a modern design and excellent condition. It offers a spacious floor plan, modern kitchen, and two bathrooms. The exterior and landscaping are well-maintained, making it an attractive property for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Resale Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modernizes the space and improves aesthetics ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both resale and rental ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Dezavala El F TX #3,739/4,322 Nat'l #34,564/41,679 Middle Goodnight Middle F TX #1,536/1,662 Nat'l #12,406/14,009 High San Marcos H S F TX #1,157/1,632 Nat'l #11,681/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: River Bridge RanchMonthly HOA fee of $65 covering common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity availablePublic waterPublic sewer
• Home design: 2-story propertyNew construction by LennarSoutheast facingSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Private yardPrivacy fencingInterior, level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeKitchen islandPantryQuartz countersEat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining roomEat-in kitchenKitchen islandMultiple dining areasPantryQuartz countersHigh-speed internetWalk-in closet(s)See remarks for window and accessibility features
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry roomWasher hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $220,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $223,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $225,999 Unlock MLS