543 Cane River Ln · Conroe, TX 77302

$338,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,716 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1976 10,402 sqft lot $124/sqft · at area comps Est $330k · at est. $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! Located in the golf community of River Plantation, this beautiful home is ready for you! Features grand living space with high ceiling and wall of windows, wet bar for entertaining, granite, wood/gas fireplace. Walk in closets in all bedrooms, double sink vanity with dual closets in the spacious primary suite. Hardie plank siding. Large fenced backyard. Grand patio for your outside kitchen and entertaining. Close to shopping, restaurants, easy access to I-45.

Key facts

• Hardie plank siding
• Wet bar
• Grand patio

Tags

• WET BAR
• HARDIE PLANK SIDING
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• GRAND PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $338k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wilkinson El (math 38% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 944 students, 54% FRL); Peet J H (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,289 students, 58% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 34% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $297,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.26%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,511
• List price: $338,000
• Delta: 2.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
454 Stephen F Austin Dr	0.14mi	4/3.5	2,693 (-1%)	5mo	$374,500	$139	84
588 Woodstock Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,804 (+3%)	1mo	$314,300	$112	80
547 Sandra Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,804 (+3%)	1mo	$410,000	$146	80
488 Stephen F Austin Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,597 (-4%)	7mo	$277,000	$107	72
595 Longwood Ln	0.35mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,676 (-2%)	6mo	$349,900	$131	71
12853 Meadow Wind Way	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,630 (-3%)	3mo	$406,704	$155	68
369 Cumberland Trl	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,968 (+9%)	6mo	$429,900	$145	65
702 Fairway Oaks	0.66mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,702 (-0%)	3mo	$554,000	$205	59
709 Palmer Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,905 (+7%)	1mo	$399,900	$138	57
12846 Meadow Wind Way	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,442 (-10%)	3mo	$389,514	$160	56
502 Monitor Park	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,580 (-5%)	1mo	$425,000	$165	51
764 Forest Lane Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,314 (-15%)	1mo	$359,900	$156	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-59,978
• Equity at exit: $50,397

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-55,791
• Equity at exit: $29,224

Cash invested: $94,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,773
• Tax from tax record: −$606 /mo · $7,274/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$649
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,218

Max offer price $320,478

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $-4	+0% $-99	+5% $-195	+10% $-291
Rent	-10% $-344	-5% $-221	+0% $-99	+5% $23	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $-13	base $-99	+0.5pp $-187	+1.0pp $-276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,500
• Closing costs: $10,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
461 Stephen F Austin Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	3023	$3,036	$1.00	7d	1	0.16mi
493 Monticello Park Conroe, TX	5.0	3.5	2921	$3,400	$1.16	26d	1	0.26mi
915 Longleaf Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,975	$1.12	45d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $338,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $338,000 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $338,000 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $338,000 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $338,000 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $338,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $338,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $338,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $338,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $338,000 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $338,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $338,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $338,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $338,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-01-26
    listed $338,000 Active 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! Located in the golf community of River Plantation, this beautiful home is ready for you! Features grand living space with high ceiling and wall of windows, wet bar for entertaining, granite, wood/gas fireplace. Walk in closets in all bedrooms, double sink vanity with dual closets in the spacious primary suite. Hardie plank siding. Large fenced backyard. Grand patio for your outside kitchen and entertaining. Close to shopping, restaurants, easy access to I-45.

16. 2025-12-09
    historical
17. 2025-10-03
    listed $348,000 Active
18. 2022-05-26
    soldstatus
19. 2022-02-20
    price $1,975
20. 2021-09-09
    soldstatus
21. 2021-08-10
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2021-08-08
    status Pending
23. 2021-07-30
    status Option Pending
24. 2021-07-28
    listed $280,000 Active
25. 2018-08-08
    status Option Pending
26. 2018-08-07
    historical
27. 2018-08-01
    status Active
28. 2018-07-19
    status Option Pending
29. 2018-07-02
    price $230,000
30. 2018-06-06
    listed $240,000 Active
31. 2014-03-03
    soldstatus
32. 2014-02-28
    soldstatus Sold
33. 2014-01-29
    status Pending
34. 2014-01-10
    listed $160,379 Active
35. 2006-02-01
    soldstatus
36. 2005-12-15
    historical
37. 2004-09-28
    listed $142,000
38. 2002-11-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,274 · $606/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,274 · $606/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,933
• − Property taxes: −$7,274
• − Insurance: −$1,690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,969
• − Management: −$2,969
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$9,833
• Taxable loss: −$6,830
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,639
• After-tax cash flow: $449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+138.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Listed $338,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $348,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-20 Price Changed $1,975 RENT.
• 2021-09-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-08-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-28 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-08-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-08-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-07-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-07-02 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2018-06-06 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2014-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-02-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-01-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-01-10 Listed $160,379 HARMLS
• 2006-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-12-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-09-28 Listed $142,000 HARMLS
• 2002-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,274 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.