2707 Lowlander Dr · Fayetteville, NC 28376

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1997 Est $194k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with office. Several updated light fixtures and ceiling fans. New carpet and flooring in most rooms. Updated kitchen with like new appliances, countertops, and cabinets. Large, fenced-in yard. Metal roof installed two years ago.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Large front porch
• Split floor plan

Tags

• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• LARGE DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: MCDOUGALD DOWNS

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured / modular home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered front porch; Porch; Back yard fencing; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Recessed lighting
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.9% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hoke County High (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 2,060 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,439 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.01%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,536
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2913 Donegal Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	8mo	$198,000	$131	84
1504 Clan Campbell Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+3%)	5mo	$199,000	$128	84
1500 Clan Campbell Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	14mo	$157,000	$104	80
2910 Donegal Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,439 (-5%)	8mo	$180,000	$125	78
2633 Oglesby Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,438 (-5%)	15mo	$120,000	$83	72
1809 Obannon Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,565 (+4%)	4mo	$197,000	$126	70
2410 Ohara Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-15%)	2mo	$192,000	$149	68
1300 Clan Campbell Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+3%)	16mo	$160,000	$103	64
2207 Keen Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-12%)	8mo	$165,000	$124	59
1312 Clan Campbell Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-9%)	18mo	$182,500	$133	56
2002 Mcguire Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	7mo	$190,000	$147	50
1922 Scottish Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-12%)	17mo	$182,000	$137	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,462
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,043
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28376

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 566
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,824 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $345	-5% $289	+0% $233	+5% $176	+10% $120
Rent	-10% $89	-5% $161	+0% $233	+5% $305	+10% $377
Rate	-1.0pp $333	-0.5pp $283	base $233	+0.5pp $181	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1502 Clan Campbell Dr Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,395	$1.08	14d	1	0.18mi
1552 Clan Campbell Dr Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1241	$1,695	$1.37	14d	1	0.34mi
140 Verdmont Dr Raeford, NC	3.0	2.5	1856	$2,200	$1.19	24d	1	0.47mi
244 Brickhill Dr Raeford, NC	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,200	$1.08	24d	1	0.49mi
279 Cromwell Ct Raeford, NC	4.0	2.0	1901	$2,100	$1.10	14d	1	0.59mi
1002 South Pointe Dr Raeford, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$1,920	$1.79	14d	24	0.98mi
105 Joseph Dr Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,275	$1.11	24d	1	1.03mi
9000 Stone Gate Dr Raeford, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$1,757	$1.71	14d	12	1.15mi
109 Timberidge Dr Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,765	$1.28	14d	1	1.17mi
334 Woodberry Cir Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,650	$1.03	14d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-06
   listed $199,000 Active
2. 2024-01-12
   soldstatus $180,000
3. 2024-01-11
   soldstatus $180,000 Closed 272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (272 chars)

   Recently updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with office. Several updated light fixtures and ceiling fans. New carpet and flooring in most rooms. Updated kitchen with like new appliances, countertops, and cabinets. Large, fenced-in yard. Metal roof installed two years ago.

4. 2023-11-27
   status Pending 272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (272 chars)

   Recently updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with office. Several updated light fixtures and ceiling fans. New carpet and flooring in most rooms. Updated kitchen with like new appliances, countertops, and cabinets. Large, fenced-in yard. Metal roof installed two years ago.

5. 2023-11-24
   price $180,000 272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (272 chars)

   Recently updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with office. Several updated light fixtures and ceiling fans. New carpet and flooring in most rooms. Updated kitchen with like new appliances, countertops, and cabinets. Large, fenced-in yard. Metal roof installed two years ago.

6. 2023-10-30
   listed $195,000 Active 272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (272 chars)

   Recently updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with office. Several updated light fixtures and ceiling fans. New carpet and flooring in most rooms. Updated kitchen with like new appliances, countertops, and cabinets. Large, fenced-in yard. Metal roof installed two years ago.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $985 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$647/yr (+$54/mo · 65.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,751
• − Management: −$1,751
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$126
• After-tax cash flow: $2,919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,896
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5880
• State rank: #123 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hoke County · 44,880 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 44,880
• Household income: $66,471
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Hoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,354 people
• By 2030: 68,361 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 78,074 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 86,384 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 99,517 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 98,939 · +56.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hoke

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 18.8pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.30%
• Current HPI: 169.1801
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+2.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $199,000 LPRMLS
• 2024-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-11 Sold (MLS) $180,000 LPRMLS
• 2023-11-27 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2023-11-24 Price Changed $180,000 LPRMLS
• 2023-10-30 Listed $195,000 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+47.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $985 · +44.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.