8213 Race Cir · Anchorage, AK 99504

$305,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,037 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1983 5,665 sqft lot Est $326k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wonderful ranch zll home w/ a fully fenced in lovely backyard. Vaulted ceilings, fireplace, remodeled kitchen with s/s appliances, bay window in living rm, laundry rm off of kitchen, each bedrm has a full bathrm. Primary bedrm has a walk-in closet. Good floor plan. No HOA dues! 2 vehicle garage. Roof was replaced, appliances new around 6 years ago, new tile in kitch & bath plus fence put in.

Key facts

• New tile in bath
• Walk-in closet
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• NEW TILE IN KITCHEN
• NEW TILE IN BATH
• REPLACED ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Paved road access
• Home design: Residential property; Attached; Built in 1983
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Composition/asphalt shingle roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Private yard; Landscaping; Motion-activated lighting; DSL/Cable available; Located in city limits; Fire service area

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Disposal; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including primary on main level; BR/BA on main level)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Disposal; Refrigerator; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Fireplace; Smoke detector(s); Vaulted ceilings; Window coverings; Laminate countertops

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($872/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Scenic Park Elementary (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #83 of 156 statewide, top 59%, 382 students, 39% FRL); Nicholas J. Begich Middle School (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #32 of 36 statewide, top 89%, 882 students, 78% FRL); Bartlett High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #42 of 61 statewide, top 82%, 1,373 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 38% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Anchorage School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $234,596 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.02%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $325,618
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8020 Williwa Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+0%)	10mo	$345,000	$332	76
4021 Resurrection Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	962 (-7%)	7mo	$310,000	$322	75
8023 Pioneer Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,138 (+10%)	13mo	$274,900	$242	65
3909 Resurrection Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,184 (+14%)	6mo	$345,000	$291	62
7841 Regal Mountain Cir	0.28mi	2/1.5	954 (-8%)	12mo	$300,000	$314	61
7721 Regal Mountain Dr	0.39mi	2/1.0	960 (-7%)	7mo	$259,900	$271	60
3743 Robin St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-7%)	8mo	$380,000	$396	53
7840 Chaimi Loop	0.42mi	2/1.0	982 (-5%)	18mo	$275,000	$280	53
8031 Little Dipper Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-7%)	12mo	$330,000	$344	51
7809 Regal Mountain Cir	0.35mi	2/1.0	912 (-12%)	15mo	$279,900	$307	47
7700 Regal Mountain Dr	0.42mi	2/1.0	882 (-15%)	6mo	$279,000	$316	46
7348 Hennings Way	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,120 (+8%)	19mo	$300,000	$268	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,970
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-38,853
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99504

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,346 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $649/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,254

Max offer price $305,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $159	+0% $73	+5% $-14	+10% $-465
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $-20	+0% $73	+5% $165	+10% $258
Rate	-1.0pp $226	-0.5pp $150	base $73	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3400 Meadowbrook Cir Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,350	$1.57	15d	1	0.41mi
7533 Regal Mountain Dr Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	987	$3,000	$3.04	25d	1	0.53mi
1720 Muldoon Cir Unit 4 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	850	$1,850	$2.18	45d	1	1.35mi
5971 Ridgelake Cir Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.0	1452	$3,000	$2.07	15d	1	1.46mi
8110 E 16th Ave Unit C6 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	1047	$1,850	$1.77	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $305,000 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $305,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $305,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   price $305,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $340,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $340,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $340,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $340,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $340,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $340,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $340,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $340,000 Active
16. 1996-04-25
    soldstatus
17. 1996-01-22
    listed $109,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $649 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,139 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,490/yr (+$124/mo · 229.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$649
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,252
• − Management: −$2,252
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$4,484
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,076
• After-tax cash flow: $1,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 42,093
• Household income: $86,710
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1052.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.80)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 13% Native American 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Pacific Islander 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Ukrainian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 9% Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -184.29%
• Current HPI: 259.8803
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.57%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+177.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $305,000 AKMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $340,000 AKMLS
• 1996-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-01-22 Listed $109,900 AKMLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $649 · -13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.