5828 W 122nd Ave · Cedar Lake, IN 46307

$269,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1964 0.41 ac lot Est $277k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 3 Bedroom 1 Bath Ranch Home in desirable Crown Point school district. Just 3 miles to all schools. Large beautiful deck overlooks spacious fenced in yard with fire pit. You will enjoy your privacy with no neighbors behind you. .. home backs up to wooded area. White trim, hardwood floors throughout, eat in kitchen with new white cabinets, counter tops, New Stainless Steel Gas Range, Dishwasher and Microwave 2019. Also newer furnace, central air and water heater in 2017. Bonus 24 X 11 Rec Room off kitchen to enjoy for your entertainment. Home is located in quiet subdivision just south of Lake County Fair Grounds. Move in ready! This one is definitely a must see! It wont disappoint. . schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Tree-lined lot
• Newer white cabinets

Tags

• TREE-LINED LOT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• NEWER WHITE CABINETS
• NEWER STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• NEWER MECHANICALS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($108/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Cedar Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#354 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Crown Point Community School Corporation (suburban): math 51% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #23 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Crown Point High School (math 51% / reading 80%, grade B, #29 of 369 statewide, top 8%, 2,948 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 739 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $212,217 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $277,008
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12208 Burr St	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,377 (-1%)	10mo	$250,000	$182	81
5719 W 122nd Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,300 (-7%)	13mo	$264,000	$203	75
12215 Tompkins Pl	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,280 (-8%)	9mo	$254,900	$199	74
5320 W 121st Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,363 (-2%)	20mo	$195,000	$143	64
12120 Burr St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,194 (-14%)	7mo	$270,000	$226	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-44,249
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-42,215
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46307

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 739
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,676/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,111

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7405 Lake Shore Dr Cedar Lake, IN	2.0	1.5	1656	$2,800	$1.69	1d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $269,900 Active
3. 2020-05-19
   soldstatus $180,000 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Updated 3 Bedroom 1 Bath Ranch Home in desirable Crown Point school district. Just 3 miles to all schools. Large beautiful deck overlooks spacious fenced in yard with fire pit. You will enjoy your privacy with no neighbors behind you. .. home backs up to wooded area. White trim, hardwood floors throughout, eat in kitchen with new white cabinets, counter tops, New Stainless Steel Gas Range, Dishwasher and Microwave 2019. Also newer furnace, central air and water heater in 2017. Bonus 24 X 11 Rec Room off kitchen to enjoy for your entertainment. Home is located in quiet subdivision just south of Lake County Fair Grounds. Move in ready! This one is definitely a must see! It wont disappoint. . schedule your showing today!

4. 2020-03-18
   listed $184,900 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Updated 3 Bedroom 1 Bath Ranch Home in desirable Crown Point school district. Just 3 miles to all schools. Large beautiful deck overlooks spacious fenced in yard with fire pit. You will enjoy your privacy with no neighbors behind you. .. home backs up to wooded area. White trim, hardwood floors throughout, eat in kitchen with new white cabinets, counter tops, New Stainless Steel Gas Range, Dishwasher and Microwave 2019. Also newer furnace, central air and water heater in 2017. Bonus 24 X 11 Rec Room off kitchen to enjoy for your entertainment. Home is located in quiet subdivision just south of Lake County Fair Grounds. Move in ready! This one is definitely a must see! It wont disappoint. . schedule your showing today!

5. 2008-10-02
   listed $154,900 641-char remark

   Show marketing remark (641 chars)

   You will notice the meticulously maintained lawn and landscaping when you pull into the the drive from the tree lined street. No neighbors behind you. .. home backs up to wooded area! Totally fenced in back yard complete with pool, hot tub, horseshoe pit, shed and fire pit!!! Newer laminate flooring in living room and hall with padding under to eliminate noise and give extra warmth. Newer six panel oak doors and trim throughout. Large kitchen with oak cabinets. Wood burning stove for those cozy winter nights in the rec-room. New roof '04, windows '05, water softener '06. Garage wired for 220! Definitely NOT a drive. .. A MUST SEE!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,676 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,985 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$309/yr (+$26/mo · 18.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$1,676
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,037
• − Management: −$2,037
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$4,604
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,105
• After-tax cash flow: $1,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crown Point Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1802490
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,148
• Composite: 49.55/100
• National rank: #1990
• State rank: #23 of 301 in IN

Livability — Cedar Lake

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #13482

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 17,680
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 71,673
• Household income: $107,800
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 705.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.91%
• Current HPI: 226.0335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+74.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Listed $269,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-19 Sold (MLS) $180,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-18 Listed $184,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-02 Listed $154,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,676 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.