266 Shady Ln · Dodson Branch, TN 38562

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 644 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1997 0.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

14X52 SINGLE WIDE WITH 2 BEDROOM 1 BATH..WITH FRONT and BACK DECKING..NO RESTRICTIONS..COUNTRY SETTING..GARDEN AREA and LARGE YARD..WITHIN 7.5 MILES TO GAINESBORO and 10 MILES FROM LIVINGSTON..WITHIN 7 - 8 MILES FROM CUMBERLAND RIVER and CORDELL HULL LAKE..IDEAL FOR STARTER OR RETIREMENT HOME..PRICED TO SELL.

Key facts

• 0.7 acre lot
• Built 1997
• Listed 3 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $345 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($805 rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 2.7% in Dodson Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#117 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson County (rural): math 27% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #79 of 139 in TN (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Gainesboro Elementary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #319 of 952 statewide, top 37%, 341 students, 0% FRL); Jackson County High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #197 of 332 statewide, top 60%, 403 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 60% district-wide (60 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $50k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.63%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $49,126
• Equity at exit: $44,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.11×
• Total profit: $127,350
• Equity at exit: $96,945

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38562

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $106/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $369

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $373	-5% $359	+0% $345	+5% $331	+10% $257
Rent	-10% $281	-5% $313	+0% $345	+5% $377	+10% $409
Rate	-1.0pp $370	-0.5pp $358	base $345	+0.5pp $332	+1.0pp $319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2022-02-15
   status Pending
2. 2022-02-11
   listed $49,900 Active
3. 2006-01-27
   soldstatus $15,500 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (334 chars)

   14X52 SINGLE WIDE WITH 2 BEDROOM 1 BATH. .WITH FRONT & BACK DECKING. .NO RESTRICTIONS. .COUNTRY SETTING. .GARDEN AREA & LARGE YARD. .WITHIN 7.5 MILES TO GAINESBORO & 10 MILES FROM LIVINGSTON. .WITHIN 7 - 8 MILES FROM CUMBERLAND RIVER & CORDELL HULL LAKE. .IDEAL FOR STARTER OR RETIREMENT HOME. .PRICED TO SELL.

4. 2006-01-27
   soldstatus $15,500 334-char remark

   Show marketing remark (334 chars)

   14X52 SINGLE WIDE WITH 2 BEDROOM 1 BATH. .WITH FRONT & BACK DECKING. .NO RESTRICTIONS. .COUNTRY SETTING. .GARDEN AREA & LARGE YARD. .WITHIN 7.5 MILES TO GAINESBORO & 10 MILES FROM LIVINGSTON. .WITHIN 7 - 8 MILES FROM CUMBERLAND RIVER & CORDELL HULL LAKE. .IDEAL FOR STARTER OR RETIREMENT HOME. .PRICED TO SELL.

5. 2005-12-01
   listed $17,900 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (334 chars)

   14X52 SINGLE WIDE WITH 2 BEDROOM 1 BATH. .WITH FRONT & BACK DECKING. .NO RESTRICTIONS. .COUNTRY SETTING. .GARDEN AREA & LARGE YARD. .WITHIN 7.5 MILES TO GAINESBORO & 10 MILES FROM LIVINGSTON. .WITHIN 7 - 8 MILES FROM CUMBERLAND RIVER & CORDELL HULL LAKE. .IDEAL FOR STARTER OR RETIREMENT HOME. .PRICED TO SELL.

6. 2005-12-01
   listed $17,900 334-char remark

   Show marketing remark (334 chars)

   14X52 SINGLE WIDE WITH 2 BEDROOM 1 BATH. .WITH FRONT & BACK DECKING. .NO RESTRICTIONS. .COUNTRY SETTING. .GARDEN AREA & LARGE YARD. .WITHIN 7.5 MILES TO GAINESBORO & 10 MILES FROM LIVINGSTON. .WITHIN 7 - 8 MILES FROM CUMBERLAND RIVER & CORDELL HULL LAKE. .IDEAL FOR STARTER OR RETIREMENT HOME. .PRICED TO SELL.

7. 2004-07-06
   soldstatus $12,500
8. 2001-05-11
   soldstatus $15,000
9. 2001-05-11
   soldstatus $15,000
10. 1997-02-25
    soldstatus $13,500
11. 1995-06-09
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $106 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $354 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: +$248/yr (+$21/mo · 234.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$106
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$773
• − Management: −$773
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $3,516
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$844
• After-tax cash flow: $3,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County
• NCES district ID: 4702070
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $32,962
• Composite: 22.09/100
• National rank: #8186
• State rank: #79 of 139 in TN

Livability — Dodson Branch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #11417

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,586

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,267 people
• By 2030: 10,952 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 10,150 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 9,246 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 7,548 · -33.0%
• By 2100: 5,856 · -48.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.5) · D 18.3% · R 80.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -63.3pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -62.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.5 2020: R+56.0 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+15.4 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.62%
• Current HPI: 419.1373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+283.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2022-02-15 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-11 Listed $49,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-27 Sold (MLS) $15,500 UCMLS
• 2006-01-27 Sold (MLS) $15,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2005-12-01 Listed $17,900 UCMLS
• 2005-12-01 Listed $17,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2004-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records
• 2001-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1997-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records
• 1995-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $106 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.