20 Shinnecock Ln · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$750,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1960 0.35 ac lot Est $658k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Have you envisioned yourself in the perfect neighborhood, with the perfect little house, having both perfect interior AND exterior? Nothing too big, just the right size for a relaxed, slowed pace of sunshine, quiet, and peacefulness. Well, here you go: this sweet, inviting home might be just the answer. A 2 bedroom enchanting residence, it warms your soul upon first entry, like a favorite blanket or sweater. Minimalist crisp design and sophistication is apparent throughout this happy abode, which has been lovingly cared for and maintained. One level living, it enjoys a generous living room which flows into its dining space and ample kitchen. Two bedrooms are the ideal size, one with a home

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Natural light
• Flower herb garden

Tags

• OUTDOOR GATHERING DECK
• HOME OFFICE
• NATURAL LIGHT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FLOWER HERB GARDEN
• CLOSE TO OCEAN BEACHES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity connected; Propane
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One-level home with 7 total rooms (includes first-floor bedroom)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Entrance foyer; Covered porch, deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in basement; Basement access via Bilco door(s); Partial attic

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $750k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $742k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $742k (1.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,423/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $210k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $750k implies a 384% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $742,333 (1.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.92%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $657,552
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Hampton Rd	0.59mi	2/1.0	900 (-1%)	8mo	$635,000	$706	63
64 Shore Rd	0.55mi	2/1.0	988 (+8%)	5mo	$750,000	$759	56
47 King St	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,012 (+11%)	12mo	$840,000	$830	54
27 Atlantic Ave	0.37mi	2/1.5	990 (+9%)	19mo	$675,000	$682	51
10 Argonne Rd W	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (+8%)	6mo	$707,000	$721	47
61 W Tiana Rd	0.64mi	2/1.0	800 (-12%)	7mo	$425,000	$531	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $5,696
• Equity at exit: $111,827

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $295,933
• Equity at exit: $64,846

Cash invested: $210,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,423 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,786/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,559
• Net cashflow: $1,387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,668

Max offer price $750,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,500
• Closing costs: $22,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	43d	1	0.37mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	43d	1	0.75mi
164 W Montauk Hwy Hampton Bays, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	610	$4,195	$6.88	43d	1	0.81mi
129 Lamplight Cir Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	734	$3,245	$4.42	6d	12	0.82mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	43d	1	0.97mi
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	15d	1	0.98mi
25 Gardners Ln Unit A Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$3,750	$3.75	24d	1	1.26mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	10d	1	1.29mi
18 Old Riverhead Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$13,500	$12.78	24d	1	1.44mi
168 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1004	$4,000	$3.98	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $750,000 Active
2. 1986-07-18
   soldstatus $155,000
3. 1986-07-18
   soldstatus $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,786 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,730 · $644/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,945/yr (+$412/mo · 177.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $89,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,012
• − Property taxes: −$2,786
• − Insurance: −$3,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,126
• − Management: −$7,126
• − Depreciation: −$21,818
• Taxable income: $4,461
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,071
• After-tax cash flow: $15,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+383.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 1986-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,786 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.