43 South Ave · Warsaw, NY 14569

$147,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1957 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Seller Shannon Kibler is a licensed Associate Broker with JoAnne Kibler Realtor and her daughter as well. Seller is doing delayed negotiations until March 30th @ 3 pm Home has 1 bedroom down with hardwood floors , and 2 up has nice modern kitchen and lots of cupboards full bath up and half bath down and full basement with washer /dryer hook up and exterior walk out to back yard air conditioner

Key facts

• Exterior walk out
• Full basement
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LOTS OF CUPBOARDS
• FULL BASEMENT
• EXTERIOR WALK OUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $147k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($517/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $147k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in NY, #4,662 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warsaw Central School District (town): math 44% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #431 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $147k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.26%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,236
• Equity at exit: $50,880

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $37,731
• Equity at exit: $68,157

Cash invested: $41,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14569

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,472 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,456/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,418

Max offer price $147,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,750
• Closing costs: $4,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   price $147,000
3. 2026-03-23
   listed $154,900 Active
4. 2024-03-15
   historical
5. 2024-02-28
   listed $144,900 Active
6. 2020-09-03
   soldstatus $60,500
7. 2020-07-28
   historical
8. 2020-07-27
   listed $69,175 Active
9. 2009-10-30
   soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,456 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,456 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,234
• − Property taxes: −$3,456
• − Insurance: −$735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − Depreciation: −$4,276
• Taxable loss: −$1,859
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$446
• After-tax cash flow: $964/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629940
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,692
• Composite: 40.47/100
• National rank: #3718
• State rank: #431 of 590 in NY

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warsaw, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,372

Population outlook (Wyoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,976 people
• By 2030: 37,826 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 35,585 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 32,841 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 25,920 · -33.5%
• By 2100: 19,082 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wyoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.2) · D 25.9% · R 74.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -48.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.2 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+51.0 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Current HPI: 263.9109
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+162.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $147,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $154,900 UNYREIS
• 2024-03-15 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-02-28 Listed $144,900 UNYREIS
• 2020-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records
• 2020-07-28 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2020-07-27 Listed $69,175 CNYIS
• 2009-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,456 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.