Madison Plan · Guyton, GA 31312

$321,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily · 157 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Madison floorplan offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. With 1,824 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this two-story home features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Choose from four distinct exterior elevations, each showcasing a welcoming covered front porch-perfect for relaxing outdoors. Inside, the corner kitchen is a chef's delight, complete with a generous island and ample bar seating. It flows seamlessly into the dining area and family room, creating an open-concept layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Natural light fills the space through multiple windows and a glass patio door that opens to the backyard. Upstairs, the private owner's suite is tucked at the rear of the home. It features a luxurious ensuite bath with dual vanities, a separate soaking tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. For added indulgence, opt for the upgraded 6-foot shower with dual showerheads. Two additional bedrooms each offer walk-in closets, with Bedroom 3 featuring a charming window seat-perfect for reading or relaxing. A centrally located laundry room adds convenience to your daily routine. The Madison combines modern design with practical touches, making it an exceptional place to call home. Every Ernest home includes LED lighting, spray foam insulation in the roof line, TRANE® HVAC unit and is energy tested and rated.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Corner kitchen
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• CORNER KITCHEN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• ENSUITE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $321,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,174.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $321k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-466 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#128 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Effingham Elementary School (math 72% / reading 63%, grade B+, #76 of 1,228 statewide, top 6%, 906 students, 26% FRL); South Effingham Middle School (math 51% / reading 58%, grade B-, #52 of 470 statewide, top 11%, 1,097 students, 32% FRL); South Effingham High School (math 33% / reading 27%, grade F, #135 of 424 statewide, top 32%, 1,888 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 463 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $244,685 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.76%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,174
• List price: $321,000
• Delta: -7.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 Haisley Run	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,898 (+4%)	22mo	$345,000	$182	68
205 Haisley Run	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-15%)	20mo	$325,000	$210	54
108 Flat Creek Ln	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,933 (+6%)	20mo	$345,000	$178	44
127 Red Maple Ln	0.83mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,017 (+11%)	4mo	$335,000	$166	39
120 Red Maple Ln	0.79mi	3/2.0	1,682 (-8%)	21mo	$330,000	$196	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-85,914
• Equity at exit: $51,765

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-112,899
• Equity at exit: $30,017

Cash invested: $97,209 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active
• Months of supply: 15.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $339,900 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 121 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31312

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 463
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,447 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,821
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$434 /mo · $5,208/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,037

Max offer price $279,710

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-226	-5% $-346	+0% $-466	+5% $-586	+10% $-706
Rent	-10% $-660	-5% $-563	+0% $-466	+5% $-370	+10% $-273
Rate	-1.0pp $-291	-0.5pp $-378	base $-466	+0.5pp $-556	+1.0pp $-648

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,793
• Closing costs: $10,415
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
208 Alyssa Ave Guyton, GA	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,300	$1.60	72d	1	0.09mi
153 Red Maple Ln Guyton, GA	4.0	2.5	2468	$2,750	$1.11	70d	1	0.92mi
1978 Goshen Rd Rincon, GA	4.0	2.0	1272	$2,295	$1.80	72d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $321,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-07-30
   days on market $321,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-07-29
   days on market $321,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-07-27
   days on market $321,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-07-25
   days on market $321,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-07-23
   days on market $321,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-07-22
   days on market $321,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-07-21
   days on market $321,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-07-18
   days on market $321,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-07-16
    days on market $321,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-07-16
    days on market $321,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-07-14
    days on market $321,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-07-13
    days on market $321,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-07-12
    days on market $321,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-07-11
    days on market $321,000 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-07-10
    days on market $321,000 Active 136 DOM
17. 2026-07-09
    days on market $321,000 Active 135 DOM
18. 2026-07-08
    days on market $321,000 Active 134 DOM
19. 2026-07-07
    days on market $321,000 Active 133 DOM
20. 2026-07-06
    days on market $321,000 Active 132 DOM
21. 2026-07-05
    days on market $321,000 Active 131 DOM
22. 2026-07-04
    days on market $321,000 Active 130 DOM
23. 2026-07-03
    days on market $321,000 Active 129 DOM
24. 2026-07-02
    days on market $321,000 Active 128 DOM
25. 2026-07-01
    days on market $321,000 Active 127 DOM
26. 2026-06-30
    days on market $321,000 Active 126 DOM
27. 2026-06-29
    days on market $321,000 Active 125 DOM
28. 2026-06-28
    days on market $321,000 Active 124 DOM
29. 2026-06-28
    days on market $321,000 Active 123 DOM
30. 2026-06-27
    days on market $321,000 Active 122 DOM
31. 2026-06-25
    days on market $321,000 Active 120 DOM
32. 2026-06-23
    days on market $321,000 Active 118 DOM
33. 2026-06-21
    days on market $321,000 Active 117 DOM
34. 2026-06-18
    days on market $321,000 Active 114 DOM
35. 2026-06-17
    days on market $321,000 Active 113 DOM
36. 2026-06-16
    days on market $321,000 Active 112 DOM
37. 2026-06-15
    days on market $321,000 Active 111 DOM
38. 2026-06-14
    days on market $321,000 Active 109 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    days on market $321,000 Active 108 DOM
40. 2026-06-10
    days on market $321,000 Active 106 DOM
41. 2026-06-09
    days on market $321,000 Active 105 DOM
42. 2026-06-08
    days on market $321,000 Active 104 DOM
43. 2026-06-07
    days on market $321,000 Active 103 DOM
44. 2026-06-05
    days on market $321,000 Active 100 DOM
45. 2026-06-03
    days on market $321,000 Active 99 DOM
46. 2026-06-02
    days on market $321,000 Active 98 DOM
47. 2026-06-01
    days on market $321,000 Active 97 DOM
48. 2026-05-31
    days on market $321,000 Active 96 DOM
49. 2026-05-30
    days on market $321,000 Active 95 DOM
50. 2026-02-25
    listed $321,000 Active 1508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1508 chars)

    The Madison floorplan offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. With 1,824 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this two-story home features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Choose from four distinct exterior elevations, each showcasing a welcoming covered front porch-perfect for relaxing outdoors. Inside, the corner kitchen is a chef's delight, complete with a generous island and ample bar seating. It flows seamlessly into the dining area and family room, creating an open-concept layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Natural light fills the space through multiple windows and a glass patio door that opens to the backyard. Upstairs, the private owner's suite is tucked at the rear of the home. It features a luxurious ensuite bath with dual vanities, a separate soaking tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. For added indulgence, opt for the upgraded 6-foot shower with dual showerheads. Two additional bedrooms each offer walk-in closets, with Bedroom 3 featuring a charming window seat-perfect for reading or relaxing. A centrally located laundry room adds convenience to your daily routine. The Madison combines modern design with practical touches, making it an exceptional place to call home. Every Ernest home includes LED lighting, spray foam insulation in the roof line, TRANE® HVAC unit and is energy tested and rated. Your home will also be smart home ready with the TRANE® Nexia Wi-Fi enabled thermosta

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,447
• − Property taxes: −$5,208
• − Insurance: −$1,736
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,349
• − Management: −$2,349
• − Depreciation: −$10,100
• Taxable loss: −$11,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,838
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Madison Plan home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no major repairs needed. The home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics can be further enhanced with some painting and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary South Effingham Elementary School B+ GA #76/1,228 Nat'l #4,272/41,679 Middle South Effingham Middle School B- GA #52/470 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High South Effingham High School F GA #135/424 Nat'l #10,947/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Effingham County
• NCES district ID: 1301980
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,503
• Composite: 42.56/100
• National rank: #3195
• State rank: #16 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Guyton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #9058

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Effingham County · 67,399 people
• City population: 25,991
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• Population (ZIP): 25,991
• Household income: $101,750
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Effingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,399 people
• By 2030: 72,297 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 81,602 · +21.1%
• By 2050: 89,494 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 105,976 · +57.2%
• By 2100: 111,943 · +66.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Effingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 25.2% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -50.7pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 205.9899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $321,000 Zillow