8045 18th Ln SE · Lacey, WA 98503

$245,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,971 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1999 $125/sqft · 9% below area Est $269k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Laurel Oaks, the desirable 55+ gated community where carefree living meets everyday comfort. This beautifully maintained 1,971 square foot triple wide MH features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a floor plan that is ideal for casual living or entertaining. Rich wood floors enhance the main living areas, while new carpets add a plush feel to the bedrooms. The living room greets all who enter with cheery natural light from a wall of windows, and a gas fireplace provides warmth and ambiance. An expansive kitchen is at the center of the home, featuring abundant cabinets, a walk in pantry, and casual counter seating. All the appliances are included. The kitchen opens to the family

Key facts

• Gated community
• Rich wood floors
• Covered patio

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• RICH WOOD FLOORS
• WALK IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE BACK COURTYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• BUILT IN GAS LINE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated living area: 1971 square feet; Structure type: Manufactured house; Direction faces: North
• Financial info: Land lease: $866; Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Laurel Oaks manufactured home park (park approved for sale); Park amenities: BBQ areas, clubhouse, common area, exercise room, high-speed internet available, RV parking, security gate; 148 homes in park; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Individual garage (garage included)
• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; PSE electric; Comcast cable and internet
• Home design: Manufactured triple-wide home (Silvercrest); One level; North-facing; Very good condition
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Manufactured after 6/15/1976; Mobile home remains
• Exterior features: Wood products siding; Patio/porch/deck; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Kitchen with eating space
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 bathtubs; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (high efficiency); Heat pump cooling; Natural gas energy source
• Interior features: Fireplace (gas); Water heater (gas, located in hallway closet); Skylights; Vaulted ceilings; Jetted/soaking tub; Walk-in closet; Walk-in pantry; Ceiling fans; Landscaped
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $246k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $443 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $246k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $242,211 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.72%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,211
• List price: $245,900
• Delta: -8.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8045 18th Ln SE	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,971 (0%)	0mo	$245,900	$125	100
8041 18th Ln SE #102	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,036 (+3%)	12mo	$285,000	$140	79
8203 18th Ln SE #46	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,050 (+4%)	8mo	$240,000	$117	76
1815 Sorrel Ln SE #119	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,080 (+6%)	10mo	$265,000	$127	76
1936 Daylily Ln SE #37	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,050 (+4%)	8mo	$294,950	$144	74
8117 20th Ln SE #23	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,050 (+4%)	11mo	$300,000	$146	74
1820 Daylily Ln SE #42	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,050 (+4%)	16mo	$285,000	$139	68
1924 Sorrel Ln SE	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-13%)	10mo	$275,000	$160	67
1823 Cranberry Ln SE	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,676 (-15%)	2mo	$190,000	$113	67
1933 Windflower Ln SE	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,720 (-13%)	11mo	$246,000	$143	65
1929 Daylily Ln SE	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,124 (+8%)	16mo	$281,000	$132	63
1822 Cranberry Ln SE #82	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,240 (+14%)	15mo	$279,900	$125	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-10,149
• Equity at exit: $36,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $33,642
• Equity at exit: $21,261

Cash invested: $68,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98503

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,621 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,290
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,831/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,061

Max offer price $245,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,475
• Closing costs: $7,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8107 26th Ave SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1594	$2,295	$1.44	44d	1	0.44mi
8420 13th Ave SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.5	2164	$2,800	$1.29	44d	1	0.48mi
2712 Mayes Rd SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1763	$2,495	$1.42	21d	1	0.49mi
2732 Hidden Springs Loop SE Unit 1 Olympia, WA	3.0	2.5	1778	$2,595	$1.46	44d	1	0.53mi
1446 Laredo Dr SE Olympia, WA	3.0	3.0	1828	$2,700	$1.48	14d	1	1.02mi
8936 28th Way SE Olympia, WA	4.0	2.5	2188	$3,100	$1.42	44d	1	1.13mi
7509 38th Dr SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,695	$1.50	44d	1	1.32mi
716 Kinwood Ct SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.0	1256	$2,495	$1.99	44d	1	1.33mi
8400 Ostrom Ave SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2251	$3,250	$1.44	44d	1	1.34mi
2134 Diamond Loop SE Lacey, WA	4.0	3.0	2582	$2,795	$1.08	44d	1	1.38mi
7325 39th Ct SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,695	$1.61	21d	1	1.48mi
8545 Oxford Ave SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1572	$2,400	$1.53	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $245,900 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $245,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $245,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $245,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $245,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $245,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-05-14
   listed $245,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,831 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,831 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,774
• − Property taxes: −$2,831
• − Insurance: −$1,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,517
• − Management: −$2,517
• − Depreciation: −$7,153
• Taxable income: $1,436
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$345
• After-tax cash flow: $4,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 41,656
• Household income: $89,002
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2195.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 7% Black 5% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.93%
• Current HPI: 361.0974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $245,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,831 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.