228 Locust Pass Cir · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$263,888

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,666 sqft · SingleFamily · 113 Days on market

Built 2026 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bed | 2-bath | 2-bay | 1666 sq. ft.

Key facts

• Open living room
• Private bath
• Dining area

Tags

• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE BATH
• DUAL VANITY SINKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R1; Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Living area reported by builder: 1,666 sq ft; Total rooms: 6
• HOA & community: Community clubhouse; Community pool; Pets allowed; Association amenities include clubhouse and pool; association fee includes pool, management and other items

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-05-29); Faces southeast
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: WJHFL LLC (Model: QUAIL RIDGE); Builder license number CGC1517458; Permit number 2025101201; Lot size approximately 0.23 acres
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, heat pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Double-pane, insulated thermal windows; Other
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Indoor laundry

🏗️ New construction. The $263,888 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $293,216.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-526 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Emerald Shores Elementary School (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 666 students, 74% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 683 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,923 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,216
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
275 Emerald Rd	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,683 (+1%)	22mo	$296,000	$176	77
311 Oak Track Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,806 (+8%)	9mo	$206,000	$114	55
235 Oak Lane Loop	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (-13%)	15mo	$155,000	$107	55
226 Locust Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,550 (-7%)	10mo	$287,000	$185	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $44,755
• Equity at exit: $183,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $148,736
• Equity at exit: $330,933

Cash invested: $82,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 683
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,899 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,538
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$367 /mo · $4,398/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-526

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,565

Max offer price $217,109

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-323	-5% $-425	+0% $-526	+5% $-627	+10% $-729
Rent	-10% $-676	-5% $-601	+0% $-526	+5% $-451	+10% $-376
Rate	-1.0pp $-378	-0.5pp $-451	base $-526	+0.5pp $-602	+1.0pp $-679

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,304
• Closing costs: $8,796
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 Locust Pass Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,650	$1.34	15d	1	0.17mi
202 Oak Lane Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,650	$1.34	15d	1	0.30mi
219 Locust Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,650	$1.34	15d	1	0.49mi
325 Oak Track Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1163	$1,550	$1.33	22d	1	0.65mi
342 Locust Pass Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,650	$1.34	15d	1	0.90mi
27 Sapphire Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,500	$1.20	22d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $263,888 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $263,888 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $263,888 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $263,888 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $263,888 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $263,888 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $263,888 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $274,990 Pending 102 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,425
• − Property taxes: −$4,398
• − Insurance: −$1,466
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,823
• − Management: −$1,823
• − Depreciation: −$8,530
• Taxable loss: −$11,675
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,802
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-05 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-06-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-31 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-31 Price Changed $274,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $250,888 Zillow
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $250,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $274,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Listed $269,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-19 Listed $269,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid