2477 US ROUTE 5 · Derby, VT 05829

$92,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 57 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition Est $81k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.2/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

A very well maintained mobile home in the Derby Mobile Home Park. Built in 1977 and many recent updates to include a hot air furnace, flooring, and paint. A 13'4"x9'11" mudroom provides a space for extra storage, coats and shoes. Aluminum siding and a metal room for minimal maintenance. Lot rent is $407 a month and includes road plowing, mowing, trash, water and sewer. The sale includes many of the furnishings. Purchaser to obtain park approval prior to closing.

Key facts

• Borders green space
• Front and back porch
• Built 2006

Tags

• SPACIOUS OPEN KITCHEN
• FRONT AND BACK PORCH
• BORDERS GREEN SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 amp electric service; Cable internet available
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Existing construction; Built in 2006
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Located in a rental complex; Paved road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heat
• Interior features: Four total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $92k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 157 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (107 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($636 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Orleans County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 24 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $92k implies a 268% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,240 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.61%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,640
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2477 US Route 5 Rte Unit C-11	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	7mo	$86,000	$77	94
2477 US Route 5 Unit B1	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,153 (+3%)	2mo	$83,500	$72	93
2477 Vt Route 5 Rd Unit D-9	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-5%)	2mo	$72,000	$68	84
2477 US Route 5 Lot C3	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (0%)	17mo	$80,000	$71	80
2477 US Route 5 Unit D19	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-12%)	2mo	$77,000	$79	68
2477 Route 5 Unit B 14	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (+14%)	9mo	$72,000	$56	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $71,461
• Equity at exit: $82,881

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.52×
• Total profit: $193,698
• Equity at exit: $178,736

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05829

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $805

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $92,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $92,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $92,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $92,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    listed $92,000 Active
16. 2023-11-14
    soldstatus $25,000 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    A very well maintained mobile home in the Derby Mobile Home Park. Built in 1977 and many recent updates to include a hot air furnace, flooring, and paint. A 13'4"x9'11" mudroom provides a space for extra storage, coats and shoes. Aluminum siding and a metal room for minimal maintenance. Lot rent is $407 a month and includes road plowing, mowing, trash, water and sewer. The sale includes many of the furnishings. Purchaser to obtain park approval prior to closing.

17. 2023-11-14
    listed $20,000 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    A very well maintained mobile home in the Derby Mobile Home Park. Built in 1977 and many recent updates to include a hot air furnace, flooring, and paint. A 13'4"x9'11" mudroom provides a space for extra storage, coats and shoes. Aluminum siding and a metal room for minimal maintenance. Lot rent is $407 a month and includes road plowing, mowing, trash, water and sewer. The sale includes many of the furnishings. Purchaser to obtain park approval prior to closing.

18. 2020-11-03
    soldstatus $37,000 Closed 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    Extremely well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bath in a quiet setting. Open kitchen with new butcher block island! Easy access to the beautiful Derby Pond and shopping centers! New kitchen island, decking on ramp and porch. Additional shed for storage!!!

19. 2020-09-16
    historical Active with Contract 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    Extremely well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bath in a quiet setting. Open kitchen with new butcher block island! Easy access to the beautiful Derby Pond and shopping centers! New kitchen island, decking on ramp and porch. Additional shed for storage!!!

20. 2020-09-11
    listed $39,000 Active 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    Extremely well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bath in a quiet setting. Open kitchen with new butcher block island! Easy access to the beautiful Derby Pond and shopping centers! New kitchen island, decking on ramp and porch. Additional shed for storage!!!

21. 2018-09-20
    soldstatus $14,000 Closed
22. 2018-08-14
    status Pending
23. 2018-06-26
    listed $18,000 Active
24. 2016-08-12
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed
25. 2016-07-15
    soldstatus $15,500 Closed
26. 2016-07-01
    historical Active with Contract
27. 2016-06-13
    listed $45,000 Active
28. 2016-06-02
    status Pending
29. 2016-05-26
    price $17,900
30. 2016-04-30
    price $18,900
31. 2016-03-01
    listed $19,900 Active
32. 2015-09-25
    soldstatus $26,000 Closed
33. 2015-08-11
    historical Active with Contract
34. 2015-08-07
    price $26,900
35. 2015-05-24
    price $27,900
36. 2015-05-18
    listed $29,900 Active
37. 2014-08-26
    soldstatus $16,000
38. 2014-03-21
    listed $17,500
39. 2012-12-07
    soldstatus $15,500
40. 2012-09-06
    soldstatus $19,500
41. 2012-07-30
    listed $19,500
42. 2012-02-24
    soldstatus $28,000
43. 2011-06-20
    listed $17,500
44. 2011-06-02
    listed $32,000
45. 2009-11-04
    soldstatus $9,500
46. 2009-09-28
    listed $10,000
47. 2008-10-16
    soldstatus $10,000
48. 2008-09-12
    listed $13,500
49. 2007-11-08
    soldstatus $10,000
50. 2007-10-08
    soldstatus $37,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,180
• − Management: −$1,180
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $2,717
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$652
• After-tax cash flow: $3,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2006 mobile home is in good condition with recent updates, offering a fresh and inviting feel. The property is well-maintained and ready for new owners.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace the front porch railings — Improves safety and aesthetics
• Both Replace the front door — Enhances curb appeal and security

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace the front porch railings — Improves safety and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace the front door — Enhances curb appeal and security ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Derby

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,600

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,222 people
• By 2030: 25,399 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 23,350 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 21,232 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 16,543 · -36.9%
• By 2100: 11,566 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% German 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.4% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: 27.5pp · 2024: -1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.6 2020: D+4.5 2016: D+0.2 2012: D+24.2 2008: D+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 264.8768
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+386.8% since first listed

61 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $92,000 PrimeMLS
• 2023-11-14 Listed $20,000 PrimeMLS
• 2023-11-14 Sold (MLS) $25,000 PrimeMLS
• 2020-11-03 Sold (MLS) $37,000 PrimeMLS
• 2020-09-16 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2020-09-11 Listed $39,000 PrimeMLS
• 2018-09-20 Sold (MLS) $14,000 PrimeMLS
• 2018-08-14 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2018-06-26 Listed $18,000 PrimeMLS
• 2016-08-12 Sold (MLS) $40,000 PrimeMLS
• 2016-07-15 Sold (MLS) $15,500 PrimeMLS
• 2016-07-01 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2016-06-13 Listed $45,000 PrimeMLS
• 2016-06-02 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2016-05-26 Price Changed $17,900 PrimeMLS
• 2016-04-30 Price Changed $18,900 PrimeMLS
• 2016-03-01 Listed $19,900 PrimeMLS
• 2015-09-25 Sold (MLS) $26,000 PrimeMLS
• 2015-08-11 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2015-08-07 Price Changed $26,900 PrimeMLS
• 2015-05-24 Price Changed $27,900 PrimeMLS
• 2015-05-18 Listed $29,900 PrimeMLS
• 2014-08-26 Sold (MLS) $16,000 PrimeMLS
• 2014-03-21 Listed $17,500 PrimeMLS
• 2012-12-07 Sold (MLS) $15,500 PrimeMLS
• 2012-09-06 Sold (MLS) $19,500 PrimeMLS
• 2012-07-30 Listed $19,500 PrimeMLS
• 2012-02-24 Sold (MLS) $28,000 PrimeMLS
• 2011-06-20 Listed $17,500 PrimeMLS
• 2011-06-02 Listed $32,000 PrimeMLS
• 2009-11-04 Sold (MLS) $9,500 PrimeMLS
• 2009-09-28 Listed $10,000 PrimeMLS
• 2008-10-16 Sold (MLS) $10,000 PrimeMLS
• 2008-09-12 Listed $13,500 PrimeMLS
• 2007-11-08 Sold (MLS) $10,000 PrimeMLS
• 2007-10-08 Sold (MLS) $37,500 PrimeMLS
• 2007-08-29 Listed $11,000 PrimeMLS
• 2007-08-08 Listed $39,000 PrimeMLS
• 2007-07-16 Sold (MLS) $12,000 PrimeMLS
• 2006-11-06 Listed $12,000 PrimeMLS
• 2006-11-03 Sold (MLS) $34,500 PrimeMLS
• 2006-08-17 Listed $34,500 PrimeMLS
• 2006-07-14 Sold (MLS) $16,000 PrimeMLS
• 2006-05-11 Listed $20,000 PrimeMLS
• 2005-12-07 Sold (MLS) $21,500 PrimeMLS
• 2005-08-25 Sold (MLS) $15,000 PrimeMLS
• 2005-08-05 Listed $23,000 PrimeMLS
• 2005-07-22 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2005-06-23 Sold (MLS) $18,000 PrimeMLS
• 2005-06-16 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2005-06-03 Sold (MLS) $57,000 PrimeMLS
• 2005-05-21 Listed $22,500 PrimeMLS
• 2005-05-16 Listed $20,000 PrimeMLS
• 2005-03-07 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2005-01-11 Listed $59,900 PrimeMLS
• 2002-02-26 Sold (MLS) $18,000 PrimeMLS
• 2002-02-04 Sold (MLS) $22,000 PrimeMLS
• 2002-01-20 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2002-01-20 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2001-11-19 Listed $23,900 PrimeMLS
• 2001-10-08 Listed $18,900 PrimeMLS