1304 E Bell Rd #43 · Phoenix, AZ 85022

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 750 sqft · Manufactured · 288 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1972 Good condition $87/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.8

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your cozy new home in the heart of a vibrant, amenity-rich community! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath residence offers low-maintenance living at its best — perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone seeking comfort and convenience. Enjoy access to a sparkling community pool and a welcoming clubhouse, ideal for relaxing or social gatherings. The home is move-in ready and waiting for your personal touch. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of peace — come see it today!

Key facts

• 4 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $504 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Echo Mountain Primary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #687 of 1,109 statewide, top 65%, 530 students, 74% FRL); Vista Verde Middle School (math 13% / reading 26%, grade F, #134 of 218 statewide, top 63%, 544 students, 71% FRL); North Canyon High School (math 13% / reading 23%, grade F, #242 of 381 statewide, top 64%, 1,842 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 29% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 379 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.25%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,615
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -54.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1304 E Bell Rd #100	0.10mi	2/2.0	780 (+4%)	18mo	$35,000	$45	69
17825 N 7th St #105	0.74mi	2/2.0	840 (+12%)	2mo	$35,000	$42	39
1517 E Grovers Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0	625 (-17%)	22mo	$125,000	$200	32
18231 N 6th St N	0.96mi	2/2.0	840 (+12%)	15mo	$225,000	$268	29
1606 E Michelle Dr #138	0.67mi	2/2.0	896 (+20%)	22mo	$52,000	$58	22
412 E Wagoner Rd	1.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	890 (+19%)	13mo	$130,000	$146	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $18,066
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $43,494
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 36.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $48,375 ($60/sqft)
• Median days on market: 11 d
• This list price: 83% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +221.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85022

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 379
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,207 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $549	-5% $527	+0% $504	+5% $482	+10% $459
Rent	-10% $409	-5% $457	+0% $504	+5% $552	+10% $600
Rate	-1.0pp $537	-0.5pp $521	base $504	+0.5pp $487	+1.0pp $470

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1450 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,504	$1.39	2d	94	0.17mi
17017 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$1,526	$1.43	43d	8	0.17mi
17017 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,824	$1.90	10d	9	0.19mi
1100 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,795	$1.82	2d	27	0.22mi
16601 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1242	$1,709	$1.38	2d	28	0.29mi
1414 E Grovers Ave #5 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,699	$1.56	15d	1	0.43mi
17617 N 9th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,530	$1.41	2d	39	0.43mi
1130 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	934	$1,324	$1.42	2d	16	0.51mi
17249 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,438	$1.33	2d	62	0.54mi
1750 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,349	$1.93	73d	1	0.56mi
1618 E Sandra Ter Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,795	$1.70	7d	1	0.61mi
1814 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,709	$1.70	2d	14	0.62mi
17625 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1112	$1,239	$1.11	9d	5	0.65mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	69d	1	0.74mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	57d	1	0.74mi
16253 N 18th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	824	$1,825	$2.21	38d	1	0.77mi
719 E Lola Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	688	$2,900	$4.22	57d	1	0.84mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	67d	1	0.87mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	60d	1	0.87mi
16220 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,684	$1.90	2d	33	0.98mi
10 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	658	$1,374	$2.09	2d	31	1.10mi
2067 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	73d	1	1.11mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	73d	1	1.13mi
11 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,705	$1.79	2d	9	1.13mi
110 E Greenway Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	830	$1,545	$1.86	2d	11	1.17mi
18217 N 2nd Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	833	$1,300	$1.56	66d	1	1.17mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	976	$1,749	$1.79	13d	1	1.23mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	845	$1,499	$1.77	57d	1	1.23mi
16609 N 1st Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,350	$1.48	37d	1	1.24mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 12 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	856	$1,399	$1.63	73d	1	1.24mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	739	$1,299	$1.76	73d	1	1.24mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,649	$1.68	73d	1	1.24mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	745	$1,650	$2.21	2d	12	1.28mi
2201 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1068	$2,405	$2.25	73d	1	1.32mi
220 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,574	$1.45	12d	32	1.35mi
16613 N 2nd Ln Phoenix, AZ	1.0	2.0	792	$1,330	$1.68	2d	1	1.40mi
18211 N 23rd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,550	$1.49	2d	1	1.40mi
15851 N 23rd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1005	$1,700	$1.69	26d	1	1.41mi
1102 E Utopia Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1068	$1,849	$1.73	23d	1	1.42mi
2311 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	710	$1,549	$2.18	2d	13	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 288 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $65,000 Active 286 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $65,000 Active 285 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $65,000 Active 284 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $65,000 Active 283 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $65,000 Active 280 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $65,000 Active 279 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $65,000 Active 278 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $65,000 Active 277 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $65,000 Active 275 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $65,000 Active 273 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $65,000 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $65,000 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $65,000 Active 270 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $65,000 Active 269 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $65,000 Active 267 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $65,000 Active 266 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $65,000 Active 265 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $65,000 Active 264 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $65,000 Active 263 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $65,000 Active 262 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $65,000 Active 261 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $65,000 Active 260 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $65,000 Active 259 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $65,000 Active 258 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 256 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $65,000 Active 255 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $65,000 Active 254 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 253 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 252 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 251 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 250 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 249 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $65,000 Active 248 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $65,000 Active 247 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $65,000 Active 246 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $65,000 Active 245 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $65,000 Active 243 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $65,000 Active 241 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $65,000 Active 240 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $65,000 Active 237 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $65,000 Active 236 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $65,000 Active 235 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $65,000 Active 234 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $65,000 Active 232 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $65,000 Active 231 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $65,000 Active 228 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 227 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 226 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 223 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $5,334
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,280
• After-tax cash flow: $4,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,750–$11,250 screening

This move-in ready manufactured home offers a good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, good bathrooms, good exterior, good flooring, good interior walls/paint, good roof, good windows, good foundation/structure, good HVAC/mechanicals, and good landscaping/curb appeal. The home is ready for a fresh coat of paint, new countertops, new flooring in bathrooms, and new lighting fixtures to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Modern countertops can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring can improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can enhance the home's appeal and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Echo Mountain Primary School F AZ #687/1,109 Nat'l #32,000/41,679 Middle Vista Verde Middle School F AZ #134/218 Nat'l #11,801/14,009 High North Canyon High School F AZ #242/381 Nat'l #14,759/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 53,811
• Household income: $69,927
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -329.75%
• Current HPI: 313.5085
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.21%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $65,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $70,000 ARMLS