251 Patterson Rd Unit C25 · Haines City, FL 33844

$79,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 574 sqft · Manufactured public records · 868 Days on market

Built 1986 3,001 sqft lot $77/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WEST VIEW RIDGE GATED COMMUNITY 55+ You own the land. Low HOA. 1BEDROOM, 1 BATHROOM. Has community pool, and club house and lots of fun activities for the residents . Right beside Lowe's. Just a mile to Wal-Mart, Winn Dixie, McDonalds. Just minutes to Posner Park in Davenport. Minutes from Disney, Sea World and Universal Studios.

Key facts

• 3,001 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $77.50; annual fee $930); Association amenities include gated access; Senior community; No pets allowed; Golf carts allowed; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One level; Faces north
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch (screened); Private mailbox; In-ground spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 868 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $58k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 868 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.46%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $12,434
• Equity at exit: $11,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $37,044
• Equity at exit: $6,874

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$77
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $809

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
251 Patterson Rd Unit C13 Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	532	$1,100	$2.07	23d	1	0.05mi
1131 Pomelo St Unit B Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	415	$1,350	$3.25	23d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $77 · $924/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,500 Active 868 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,500 Active 867 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,500 Active 866 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,500 Active 865 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,500 Active 863 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,500 Active 860 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,500 Active 859 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,500 Active 858 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,500 Active 857 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,500 Active 854 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,500 Active 852 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,500 Active 851 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,500 Active 850 DOM
14. 2026-03-27
    status Active
15. 2026-03-03
    status Pending
16. 2026-01-05
    status Active
17. 2025-12-31
    historical
18. 2025-07-08
    status Active
19. 2025-06-30
    historical
20. 2025-06-08
    status Active
21. 2025-05-09
    status Pending
22. 2025-03-21
    price $79,500
23. 2024-10-14
    status Active
24. 2024-09-21
    status Pending
25. 2024-03-26
    price $85,000
26. 2024-02-15
    price $99,000
27. 2024-01-19
    price $124,500
28. 2023-11-03
    listed $138,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,342 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,342 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − HOA: −$924
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $4,274
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,026
• After-tax cash flow: $4,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-42.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $79,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-26 Price Changed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-15 Price Changed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-19 Price Changed $124,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-03 Listed $138,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,342 · +16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.