1515 Pilot Grove Rd · Trenton, TX 75491

$135,499

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 468 Days on market

Built 1930 0.66 ac lot $147/sqft · 38% below area Est $220k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

DALLAS INVESTORS! Welcome to this charming two-bedroom home, awaiting the perfect investor to unleash its full potential! This property presents an excellent opportunity for those with a vision for renovation. With some TLC and handyman skills, transform this 924 square foot home into a personalized masterpiece. Enjoy relaxing on the inviting covered front porch, adding to the home's cozy appeal. Situated on an expansive 28,800 square foot lot in historical Whitewright, TX, this property offers tremendous land value and endless possibilities for expansion or development. This location is an hour commute to Dallas and is near many local shops and parks. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Expansive lot
• Near local shops

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• EXPANSIVE LOT
• NEAR LOCAL SHOPS
• NEAR PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.7% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,108 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Whitewright ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #134 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $937 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 468 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $135k implies a 199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,239 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 468 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.45%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,000
• List price: $135,499
• Delta: -38.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,973
• Equity at exit: $20,203

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $8,867
• Equity at exit: $11,715

Cash invested: $37,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75491

• Home prices YoY: -8.6%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,373 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$711
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,362/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,115

Max offer price $135,499

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,875
• Closing costs: $4,065
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,499 Active 468 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,499 Active 467 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,499 Active 466 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,499 Active 465 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,499 Active 463 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,499 Active 459 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,499 Active 458 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,499 Active 457 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $135,499 Active 454 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,499 Active 453 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,499 Active 452 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,499 Active 451 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,499 Active 450 DOM
14. 2026-02-23
    price $135,499 877-char remark

    Show marketing remark (877 chars)

    DALLAS INVESTORS! Welcome to this charming two-bedroom home, awaiting the perfect investor to unleash its full potential! This property presents an excellent opportunity for those with a vision for renovation. With some TLC and handyman skills, transform this 924 square foot home into a personalized masterpiece. Enjoy relaxing on the inviting covered front porch, adding to the home's cozy appeal. Situated on an expansive 28,800 square foot lot in historical Whitewright, TX, this property offers tremendous land value and endless possibilities for expansion or development. This location is an hour commute to Dallas and is near many local shops and parks. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

15. 2025-03-07
    listed $145,499 Active 877-char remark

    Show marketing remark (877 chars)

    DALLAS INVESTORS! Welcome to this charming two-bedroom home, awaiting the perfect investor to unleash its full potential! This property presents an excellent opportunity for those with a vision for renovation. With some TLC and handyman skills, transform this 924 square foot home into a personalized masterpiece. Enjoy relaxing on the inviting covered front porch, adding to the home's cozy appeal. Situated on an expansive 28,800 square foot lot in historical Whitewright, TX, this property offers tremendous land value and endless possibilities for expansion or development. This location is an hour commute to Dallas and is near many local shops and parks. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

16. 2022-12-21
    soldstatus $45,286

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,362 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,480 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,118/yr (+$93/mo · 82.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,590
• − Property taxes: −$1,362
• − Insurance: −$677
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,318
• − Management: −$1,318
• − Depreciation: −$3,942
• Taxable income: $268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$64
• After-tax cash flow: $2,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitewright ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845670
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,969
• Composite: 45.31/100
• National rank: #2648
• State rank: #134 of 826 in TX

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1108
• US rank: #19614

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,428

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.85%
• Current HPI: 273.3968
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+199.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $135,499 HARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Listed $145,499 HARMLS
• 2022-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $45,286 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,362 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.