3901 Bahia Vista St · Sarasota Springs, FL 34232

$55,000

2 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,160 sqft · Land public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1959 38 ac lot $800/mo HOA · 42% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

?? Charming 2 Bed, 2 Bath Manufactured Home in Bahia Vista Estates (55+ Community) Welcome to your next home in the highly desirable Bahia Vista Estates—a peaceful and friendly 55+ community designed for comfort and active living! ? Property Features:

Key facts

• New a/c system
• Updated flooring
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• RENOVATED DOUBLE-WIDE
• MODERN KITCHEN
• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED FLOORING
• NEW A/C SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/5.0-bath land listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#295 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (66%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.61%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $7,712
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $15,021
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34232

• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,926 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$800
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,494

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $379	-5% $360	+0% $341	+5% $322	+10% $303
Rent	-10% $189	-5% $265	+0% $341	+5% $418	+10% $494
Rate	-1.0pp $369	-0.5pp $355	base $341	+0.5pp $327	+1.0pp $313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $800 · $9,600/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $55,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $55,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $55,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $55,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-05-12
   listed $159,900 Active 272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (272 chars)

   ?? Charming 2 Bed, 2 Bath Manufactured Home in Bahia Vista Estates (55+ Community) Welcome to your next home in the highly desirable Bahia Vista Estates—a peaceful and friendly 55+ community designed for comfort and active living! ? Property Features:

6. 2026-04-15
   listed $55,000 Active 679-char remark

   Show marketing remark (679 chars)

   Beautifully Renovated Double-Wide in 55+ Community! Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom double-wide mobile home, originally built in 1959 and completely remodeled with permits. This move-in ready home features a brand-new roof, modern kitchen, updated flooring, and a new A/C system—everything has been thoughtfully upgraded for comfort and peace of mind. Located in a desirable 55+ community, this property offers a relaxed lifestyle in a well-maintained setting. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence or a seasonal retreat, this home is ready for you to enjoy from day one. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,849
• − Management: −$1,849
• − HOA: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $4,033
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$968
• After-tax cash flow: $3,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sarasota Springs

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #295
• US rank: #5021

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,013
• Household income: $80,795
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1676.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -426.24%
• Current HPI: 337.9799
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.45%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+190.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $159,900 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-15 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $358,511 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.