28 Stevens Loop · Lyndon, VT 05851

$195,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,734 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1880 7.09 ac lot Est $283k · 31% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A stately 5 bedroom Cape/Farmhouse home in need of some TLC but hosts many possibilities with the location and zoning. Large rooms and plenty of space. Seven acres is open and room for expansion. Close to Lyndonville village and Burke mountain for skiing.

Key facts

• Seven acres
• Zoning possibilities
• Room for expansion

Tags

• CAPE FARMHOUSE HOME
• SEVEN ACRES
• CLOSE TO LYNDONVILLE VILLAGE
• ROOM FOR EXPANSION
• ZONING POSSIBILITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breaker electrical service; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Cape / Farmhouse style; Existing structure; Shingle roof
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Built in 1880
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Gravel driveway; Paved, publicly maintained road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: 11 total rooms; Partial basement with interior access and basement stairs; Vinyl and wood flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $195,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.73%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $282,642
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
73 Center St	0.56mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,800 (+4%)	2mo	$244,000	$136	59
105 Park Ave	0.73mi	5/2.0	1,936 (+12%)	12mo	$315,000	$163	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $125,742
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.50×
• Total profit: $355,006
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05851

• Home prices YoY: 9.6%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,089 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,881/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,701

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $417	-5% $362	+0% $306	+5% $251	+10% $196
Rent	-10% $141	-5% $224	+0% $306	+5% $389	+10% $471
Rate	-1.0pp $405	-0.5pp $356	base $306	+0.5pp $256	+1.0pp $204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 255-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $195,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,881 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,293 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$412/yr (+$34/mo · 14.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,881
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $605
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$145
• After-tax cash flow: $3,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Lyndon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,972

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.00%
• Current HPI: 319.1832
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $195,000 PrimeMLS
• 2017-07-25 Price Changed $199,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2021): $2,881 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.