1210 Duck River Rd · Columbia, TN 38401

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 221 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $99/sqft · 31% below area Est $175k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,216 sq. ft. of bright, open living space with modern finishes and a spacious primary suite. Take a tour today!

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 221 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $637 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 2.8% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#207 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Maury County (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #108 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Riverside Elementary (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #786 of 952 statewide, top 84%, 429 students, 0% FRL); E. A. Cox Middle School (math 6% / reading 7%, grade F, #284 of 333 statewide, top 86%, 656 students, 0% FRL); Columbia Central High School (math 7% / reading 27%, grade F, #225 of 332 statewide, top 69%, 1,474 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 1129 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,650 units permitted in Maury County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maury County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.74%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,000
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -31.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $24,689
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $88,970
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38401

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 1129
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,771 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $325/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $965

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $705	-5% $671	+0% $637	+5% $603	+10% $569
Rent	-10% $497	-5% $567	+0% $637	+5% $707	+10% $777
Rate	-1.0pp $697	-0.5pp $667	base $637	+0.5pp $606	+1.0pp $574

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
312 Shawnee Dr Columbia, TN	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,400	$1.37	3d	1	1.19mi
413 Shawnee Dr Columbia, TN	2.0	1.0	940	$1,295	$1.38	45d	1	1.22mi
1216 Hampshire Pike Columbia, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0	799	$1,479	$1.85	3d	4	1.40mi
1422 Club House Dr Columbia, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$1,799	$1.73	3d	20	1.40mi
721 Poplar St Unit A Columbia, TN	4.0	2.5	1491	$2,500	$1.68	45d	1	1.44mi
721 Poplar St Unit B Columbia, TN	4.0	2.5	1491	$2,500	$1.68	4d	1	1.44mi
1106 W 7th St Unit 2 Columbia, TN	2.0	1.0	760	$1,000	$1.32	45d	1	1.47mi
1106 W 7th St Unit 3 Bedroom Columbia, TN	3.0	1.0	760	$1,200	$1.58	4d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 221 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 213 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 207 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 203 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 201 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 200 DOM
15. 2025-11-13
    listed $120,000 Active 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,216 sq. ft. of bright, open living space with modern finishes and a spacious primary suite. Take a tour today!

16. 2025-10-21
    historical
17. 2025-10-17
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $325 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$527/yr (+$44/mo · 162.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$325
• − Insurance: −$1,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,700
• − Management: −$1,700
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $6,045
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,451
• After-tax cash flow: $6,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,216 sq. ft. of bright, open living space with modern finishes and a spacious primary suite. It is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens look and improves energy efficiency
• Both Update flooring — Modernizes space and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens look and improves energy efficiency ↑
• Both Update flooring — Modernizes space and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maury County
• NCES district ID: 4702760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,668
• Composite: 17.69/100
• National rank: #9024
• State rank: #108 of 139 in TN

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #16090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, TN
• County: Maury County · 121,382 people
• City population: 67,482
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 67,482
• Household income: $68,475
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2026.0

Population outlook (Maury County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,894 people
• By 2030: 110,269 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 124,426 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 137,543 · +33.7%
• By 2075: 167,438 · +62.7%
• By 2100: 184,489 · +79.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maury

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.6) · D 27.1% · R 71.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -44.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.6 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.75%
• Current HPI: 343.0362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-13 Listed $120,000 Zillow
• 2025-10-21 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Listed $120,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $325 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.