109 Creek Bluff Trl · Centerville, GA 31093

$258,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,775 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 165 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot $145/sqft · at area comps Est $249k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this like new single story home in the Old Stone Crossing community. It features open floor plan, deluxe kitchen with granite countertops and stainless appliances, 4 bedroom, 2 bath and covered patio. It has fresh paint and new carpet. Easy 1 step entry with a 2 car garage. The primary suite has a private bath with dual sinks and walk in closet. Call Today for your private showing!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Fresh paint
• Deluxe kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• DELUXE KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• COVERED PATIO
• FRESH PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($685/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#56 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centerville Elementary School (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #264 of 1,228 statewide, top 23%, 630 students, 84% FRL); Northside Middle School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #243 of 470 statewide, top 53%, 844 students, 84% FRL); Northside High School (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #331 of 424 statewide, top 78%, 1,959 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 46% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,146/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 1516% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,600 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,273
• List price: $258,000
• Delta: 3.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Red Birch Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,742 (-2%)	4mo	$270,000	$155	87
132 Price Mill Trl	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,773 (-0%)	12mo	$249,990	$141	83
126 Concord Rdg	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+0%)	8mo	$285,000	$160	81
104 Sourwood Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5	1,823 (+3%)	3mo	$247,000	$135	81
129 Martin Mill Trl	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,781 (+0%)	8mo	$260,000	$146	81
130 Sunnymeade Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,633 (-8%)	10mo	$248,500	$152	74
208 Sunnymeade Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,645 (-7%)	7mo	$232,000	$141	70
124 Logans Mill Trail Trl	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,728 (-3%)	8mo	$272,000	$157	66
163 Sourwood Ln	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (+8%)	7mo	$259,999	$135	62
166 Sourwood Ln	0.28mi	4/3.0	1,959 (+10%)	10mo	$255,000	$130	57
113 Sourwood Ln	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,514 (-15%)	6mo	$236,500	$156	51
152 Back Cedar Ln	0.39mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,584 (-11%)	10mo	$224,999	$142	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-38,700
• Equity at exit: $38,469

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-31,182
• Equity at exit: $22,307

Cash invested: $72,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31093

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,929/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,074

Max offer price $258,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $130	+0% $57	+5% $-16	+10% $-89
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-28	+0% $57	+5% $142	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $187	-0.5pp $123	base $57	+0.5pp $-10	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,500
• Closing costs: $7,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Flat Rock Mill Trl Warner Robins, GA	4.0	2.5	2014	$2,125	$1.06	15d	1	0.02mi
112 Flat Rock Mill Trl Warner Robins, GA	4.0	3.0	2376	$2,225	$0.94	45d	1	0.05mi
151 Rock Run Trl Warner Robins, GA	5.0	3.0	2176	$2,400	$1.10	45d	1	0.13mi
112 Rock Run Trl Warner Robins, GA	4.0	2.5	2376	$2,295	$0.97	45d	1	0.17mi
130 English Oak Ln Warner Robins, GA	4.0	3.0	1923	$2,195	$1.14	45d	1	0.22mi
308 Silver Maple Ln Warner Robins, GA	4.0	2.5	1865	$2,095	$1.12	45d	1	0.27mi
121 Limestone Trl Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1719	$1,850	$1.08	45d	1	0.63mi
210 Surrey Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,600	$0.99	23d	1	0.79mi
1280 Dunbar Rd Warner Robins, GA	2.0–4.0	2.0	1235	$2,400	$1.94	15d	11	0.82mi
156 Amelia Dr Byron, GA	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,300	$1.05	15d	1	0.91mi
807 Citrona Dr Byron, GA	4.0	2.5	2164	$2,020	$0.93	45d	1	1.00mi
807 Citrona Dr Byron, GA	4.0	2.5	2164	$2,020	$0.93	23d	1	1.00mi
15 Michelle Dr Byron, GA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,195	$0.96	15d	1	1.05mi
104 Village Walk Centerville, GA	3.0	2.0	1887	$1,950	$1.03	45d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-11
   price $258,000 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   Take a look at this like new single story home in the Old Stone Crossing community. It features open floor plan, deluxe kitchen with granite countertops and stainless appliances, 4 bedroom, 2 bath and covered patio. It has fresh paint and new carpet. Easy 1 step entry with a 2 car garage. The primary suite has a private bath with dual sinks and walk in closet. Call Today for your private showing!

2. 2026-05-10
   price $258,000 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Take a look at this like new single story home in the Old Stone Crossing community. It features open floor plan, deluxe kitchen with granite countertops and stainless appliances, 4 bedroom, 2 bath and covered patio. It has fresh paint and new carpet. Easy 1 step entry with a 2 car garage. The primary suite has a private bath with dual sinks and walk in closet. Call Today for a private showing.

3. 2026-05-08
   price $258,000
4. 2026-02-11
   price $265,000 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Take a look at this like new single story home in the Old Stone Crossing community. It features open floor plan, deluxe kitchen with granite countertops and stainless appliances, 4 bedroom, 2 bath and covered patio. It has fresh paint and new carpet. Easy 1 step entry with a 2 car garage. The primary suite has a private bath with dual sinks and walk in closet. Call Today for a private showing.

5. 2026-02-11
   price $265,000 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Take a look at this like new single story home in the Old Stone Crossing community. It features open floor plan, deluxe kitchen with granite countertops and stainless appliances, 4 bedroom, 2 bath and covered patio. It has fresh paint and new carpet. Easy 1 step entry with a 2 car garage. The primary suite has a private bath with dual sinks and walk in closet. Call Today for a private showing.

6. 2026-02-10
   price $265,000
7. 2025-12-11
   listed $269,900 New 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   Take a look at this like new single story home in the Old Stone Crossing community. It features open floor plan, deluxe kitchen with granite countertops and stainless appliances, 4 bedroom, 2 bath and covered patio. It has fresh paint and new carpet. Easy 1 step entry with a 2 car garage. The primary suite has a private bath with dual sinks and walk in closet. Call Today for your private showing!

8. 2025-12-11
   listed $269,900 Active 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   Take a look at this like new single story home in the Old Stone Crossing community. It features open floor plan, deluxe kitchen with granite countertops and stainless appliances, 4 bedroom, 2 bath and covered patio. It has fresh paint and new carpet. Easy 1 step entry with a 2 car garage. The primary suite has a private bath with dual sinks and walk in closet. Call Today for your private showing!

9. 2025-12-11
   listed $269,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   Take a look at this like new single story home in the Old Stone Crossing community. It features open floor plan, deluxe kitchen with granite countertops and stainless appliances, 4 bedroom, 2 bath and covered patio. It has fresh paint and new carpet. Easy 1 step entry with a 2 car garage. The primary suite has a private bath with dual sinks and walk in closet. Call Today for your private showing!

10. 2024-06-28
    soldstatus $243,990 Sold
11. 2024-06-28
    soldstatus $243,990
12. 2024-05-01
    listed $243,990
13. 2024-03-20
    status Under Contract
14. 2024-03-01
    listed $243,990 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,929 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,374 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$445/yr (+$37/mo · 23.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,452
• − Property taxes: −$1,929
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$7,505
• Taxable loss: −$3,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$900
• After-tax cash flow: $1,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home in Old Stone Crossing is in good condition with modern updates and a fresh paint job. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and potential for further value through landscaping and smart home integration.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Paint exterior — Improves curb appeal and property value
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances home's marketability and convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Paint exterior — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances home's marketability and convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #5374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centerville, GA
• County: Houston County · 157,321 people
• City population: 6,312
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 26,872
• Household income: $45,991
• Rent vs Own: 47.1% rent · 52.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1516.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.35%
• Current HPI: 222.1627
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+5.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $258,000 CGMLS
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $258,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $258,000 MGMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $265,000 CGMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $265,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $265,000 MGMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $269,900 MGMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $269,900 CGMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $269,900 GAMLS
• 2024-06-28 Sold (MLS) $243,990 MGMLS
• 2024-06-28 Sold (MLS) $243,990 GAMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listed $243,990 MGMLS
• 2024-03-20 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-03-01 Listed $243,990 GAMLS