9494 Norms Rd · Long Rapids, MI 49707

$87,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1979 1.15 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled comfortably in the woods. Plenty of privacy. Sit back and relax. This 2-bedroom 1 Full bath may have been manufactured in 1979 however, you would never know it. Everything is in mint condition. You have no need to do a thing. The home comes completely furnished. Enjoy the mornings on the back porch and the evenings on the screened in 3 season front porch/ sunroom. Having company over? Thats great check out the adorable 12x16 bunk house in the back yard. With a 6x12 covered porch out the front and 8x12 covered porch out the back. There is also a 8x12 tool shed. This would make a great home or hunting camp.

Key facts

• Amish cabin
• Storage shed
• All appliances

Tags

• PRIVATE LOCATION
• AMISH CABIN
• STORAGE SHED
• ALL APPLIANCES
• FURNISHINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Crawl space or no basement
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Guest house; Dirt road access; Approximately 1.15 acres (250 x 200)

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $81k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $81k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Alpena Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #345 of 540 in MI (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wilson Elementary (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #923 of 1,397 statewide, top 69%, 260 students, 66% FRL); Thunder Bay Junior High School (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #363 of 493 statewide, top 75%, 844 students, 60% FRL); Alpena High School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 1,101 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 46 units permitted in Alpena County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $607 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alpena County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $80,740 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.61%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-6,952
• Equity at exit: $13,091

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,206
• Equity at exit: $7,591

Cash invested: $24,584 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49707

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$460
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $312/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $662

Max offer price $87,800

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $140	+0% $115	+5% $90	+10% $65
Rent	-10% $51	-5% $83	+0% $115	+5% $147	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $137	base $115	+0.5pp $92	+1.0pp $69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,950
• Closing costs: $2,634
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 388-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $87,800 Active 388-char remark
3. 2022-06-16
   soldstatus $66,000 620-char remark

   Show marketing remark (620 chars)

   Nestled comfortably in the woods. Plenty of privacy. Sit back and relax. This 2-bedroom 1 Full bath may have been manufactured in 1979 however, you would never know it. Everything is in mint condition. You have no need to do a thing. The home comes completely furnished. Enjoy the mornings on the back porch and the evenings on the screened in 3 season front porch/ sunroom. Having company over? Thats great check out the adorable 12x16 bunk house in the back yard. With a 6x12 covered porch out the front and 8x12 covered porch out the back. There is also a 8x12 tool shed. This would make a great home or hunting camp.

4. 2022-05-16
   listed $69,900 620-char remark

   Show marketing remark (620 chars)

   Nestled comfortably in the woods. Plenty of privacy. Sit back and relax. This 2-bedroom 1 Full bath may have been manufactured in 1979 however, you would never know it. Everything is in mint condition. You have no need to do a thing. The home comes completely furnished. Enjoy the mornings on the back porch and the evenings on the screened in 3 season front porch/ sunroom. Having company over? Thats great check out the adorable 12x16 bunk house in the back yard. With a 6x12 covered porch out the front and 8x12 covered porch out the back. There is also a 8x12 tool shed. This would make a great home or hunting camp.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $312 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $832 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$520/yr (+$43/mo · 166.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,918
• − Property taxes: −$312
• − Insurance: −$439
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$775
• − Management: −$775
• − Depreciation: −$2,554
• Taxable loss: −$84
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$20
• After-tax cash flow: $1,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpena Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2602730
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,327
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7119
• State rank: #345 of 540 in MI

Livability — Long Rapids

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,050

Population outlook (Alpena County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,245 people
• By 2030: 26,142 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 23,449 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 20,729 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 15,422 · -43.4%
• By 2100: 10,723 · -60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alpena

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.6) · D 35.1% · R 63.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.5pp toward R · 2008: 3.9pp · 2024: -28.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.6 2020: R+27.6 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+5.3 2008: D+3.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.41%
• Current HPI: 232.1238
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+25.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — WWMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $87,800 WWMLS
• 2022-06-16 Sold (MLS) $66,000 WWMLS
• 2022-05-16 Listed $69,900 WWMLS

Property tax history

-8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $312 · -58.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.