1408 N Forest Ave · Springfield, MO 65802

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1915 6,534 sqft lot $96/sqft · 37% below area Est $120k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2-bed, 1-bath home sits on a level 0.15-acre lot and offers an affordable entry point for investors seeking value-add or rental income opportunities and would also be ideal for owner occupants.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1915

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($970 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 513 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.79%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,854
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -37.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1106 N Clifton Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0	808 (+3%)	0mo	$135,000	$167	79
906 N Brown Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0	796 (+2%)	3mo	$140,000	$176	74
2435 W Calhoun St	0.15mi	2/1.0	700 (-11%)	3mo	$140,000	$200	73
810 N West Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0	768 (-2%)	3mo	$119,000	$155	72
1122 N Brown Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0	704 (-10%)	6mo	$115,000	$163	65
2017 W Calhoun St	0.33mi	2/1.0	891 (+14%)	1mo	$142,500	$160	61
1030 N Warren Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0	700 (-11%)	7mo	$95,000	$136	60
1635 W Lynn St	0.60mi	2/1.0	732 (-7%)	1mo	$115,000	$157	60
1521 W Hamilton St	0.72mi	2/1.0	825 (+5%)	1mo	$134,900	$164	57
827 N Marion Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0	871 (+11%)	3mo	$115,000	$132	54
1836 W Hovey St	0.47mi	2/1.0	672 (-14%)	3mo	$50,000	$74	52
659 N Lafontaine Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	876 (+12%)	1mo	$164,900	$188	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $9,461
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $41,374
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65802

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 513
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $970 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $363/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $576

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $354	-5% $333	+0% $311	+5% $290	+10% $269
Rent	-10% $235	-5% $273	+0% $311	+5% $350	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $349	-0.5pp $330	base $311	+0.5pp $292	+1.0pp $272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2712 W Nichols St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	619	$795	$1.28	45d	1	0.54mi
740 N West Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	24d	1	0.57mi
741 N West Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	912	$950	$1.04	45d	1	0.58mi
922 N Glenn Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	45d	1	0.72mi
3016 W Hovey St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1059	$1,350	$1.27	45d	1	0.74mi
522 N Park Ave Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	608	$950	$1.56	45d	1	0.78mi
2115 N Grace Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	650	$850	$1.31	45d	1	0.80mi
3031 W Pacific St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,295	$1.28	22d	1	0.82mi
916 N Kansas Expy Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	573	$595	$1.04	45d	1	0.82mi
1406 W Calhoun St Unit B Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	885	$865	$0.98	24d	1	0.84mi
2224 N Clifton Ave Unit 2238-A Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	756	$695	$0.92	15d	1	0.94mi
2117 N Lexington Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,195	$1.15	45d	1	0.95mi
2126 N Lexington Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	990	$895	$0.90	15d	1	0.98mi
1126 W Hamilton St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	648	$895	$1.38	24d	1	1.01mi
2711 W Olive St Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	621	$750	$1.21	24d	1	1.10mi
1740 W Olive St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	736	$1,195	$1.62	15d	1	1.16mi
2120 N Johnston Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	880	$925	$1.05	45d	1	1.30mi
1911 W Elm St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	580	$875	$1.51	45d	1	1.31mi
2541 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1034	$975	$0.94	45d	1	1.33mi
2854 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	945	$995	$1.05	22d	1	1.34mi
520 S Scenic Ave Unit 101-A Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$650	$1.18	45d	1	1.35mi
3028 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$850	$0.87	22d	1	1.43mi
813 W Poplar St Unit 813 Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	560	$795	$1.42	15d	1	1.45mi
815 N Grant Ave Unit A Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	801	$625	$0.78	45d	1	1.49mi
603 W Division St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$995	$1.22	15d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $75,000 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $75,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $75,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $75,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-04-16
   listed $85,000 Active 198-char remark

   Show marketing remark (198 chars)

   This 2-bed, 1-bath home sits on a level 0.15-acre lot and offers an affordable entry point for investors seeking value-add or rental income opportunities and would also be ideal for owner occupants.

9. 2025-05-12
   historical $850
10. 2025-04-24
    listed $850
11. 2020-09-14
    soldstatus
12. 2020-09-14
    soldstatus
13. 2020-09-11
    soldstatus 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Investment property near West Division and Kansas Expressway. Home is a 2 bedroom, one bath in need of repair. Property lot is fairly level backs up to 5 vacant lots available for sale as well. For additional information on the lots, see MLS number 60171298.

14. 2020-08-18
    listed $30,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Investment property near West Division and Kansas Expressway. Home is a 2 bedroom, one bath in need of repair. Property lot is fairly level backs up to 5 vacant lots available for sale as well. For additional information on the lots, see MLS number 60171298.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $363 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $728 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$365/yr (+$30/mo · 100.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,637
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$363
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$931
• − Management: −$931
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,655
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$637
• After-tax cash flow: $3,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 46,739
• Household income: $55,019
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1818.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.72%
• Current HPI: 212.9826
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+183.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $85,000 SOMO
• 2025-05-12 Rental Removed $850 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-24 Listed for Rent $850 APPFOLIO
• 2020-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-11 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2020-08-18 Listed $30,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $363 · +23.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.