8856 Smokey Hollow Rd · Baldwinsville, NY 13027

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2005 6.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious and private home is ready for its new owners. Lovingly cared for and immaculately maintained, this property offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and an oversized gathering room perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family and friends. The kitchen, dining area, and oversized family room with fireplace provide a warm and inviting layout designed for comfortable everyday living. Outside, you’ll find an oversized two-bay garage or workshop space with front and rear entrances, complete with electric door openers. In addition, there are two generously sized sheds on the property, all meticulously maintained. Situated on 1.88 acres of dry land, the property also includes an add

Key facts

• Workshop space
• Two-bay garage
• Kitchen dining area

Tags

• OVERSIZED GATHERING ROOM
• KITCHEN DINING AREA
• OVERSIZED FAMILY ROOM
• TWO-BAY GARAGE
• WORKSHOP SPACE
• GENEROUSLY SIZED SHEDS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with workshop space; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Circuit breaker electrical service; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; One story; Existing construction
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; Frame construction; Blown-in insulation; PEX plumbing; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Dirt and gravel driveways; Propane tank (leased); Shed(s) and storage; Rectangular lot; Road frontage on a main thoroughfare

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry / walk-in pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl / resilient / vinyl flooring; Varied flooring types
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Hot water heating; Electric heating; Propane heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Cathedral ceilings; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Guest accommodations; Great room; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry with walk-in pantry; Bedroom on main level; Primary suite with bath in primary bedroom and main level primary; Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-854/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Baldwinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#199 in NY, #3,083 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Baldwinsville Central School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #355 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $250k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $213,502 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,976
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,793
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13027

• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,135 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,118/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,225

Max offer price $237,328

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $70	-5% $0	+0% $-71	+5% $-142	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-155	+0% $-71	+5% $13	+10% $98
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $-8	base $-71	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-16
   historical Active Under Contract 1162-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $249,900 Active 1162-char remark
3. 2004-10-26
   soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,171 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: +$52/yr (+$4/mo · 1.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,118
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,050
• − Management: −$2,050
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,115
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,228
• After-tax cash flow: $374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwinsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,182
• Composite: 44.22/100
• National rank: #2848
• State rank: #355 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baldwinsville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #3083

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 35,088
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 35,088
• Household income: $91,797
• Rent vs Own: 30.9% rent · 69.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.01%
• Current HPI: 321.8247
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+899.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-16 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $249,900 CNYIS
• 2004-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,118 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.