231 Hickory Shores Dr · Bogue, NC 28570

$379,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · Other public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2022 0.34 ac lot $25/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New construction in Hickory Shores. Great open floor plan with principal suite on first floor, additional (2) bedrooms, flex room and sitting area on the second floor. High lot, two car garage and lovely neighborhood will make this a Must-Have! Anticipated completion is end September 2022 Professional photos & 3D tour coming soon.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $379k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($91k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $379k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#311 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: White Oak Elementary (math 76% / reading 65%, grade A-, #88 of 1,410 statewide, top 6%, 772 students, 100% FRL); Broad Creek Middle (math 63% / reading 68%, grade A-, #28 of 475 statewide, top 6%, 710 students, 100% FRL); Croatan High (math 82% / reading 78%, grade A, #73 of 535 statewide, top 13%, 974 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 39% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 72% at this address vs 60% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Carteret County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $12,433/mo this rent would consume 212% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $106k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $379,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.48%
• DSCR: 4.80
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $420,026
• Equity at exit: $56,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.29×
• Total profit: $985,594
• Equity at exit: $32,769

Cash invested: $106,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,433 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,107/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,611
• Net cashflow: $7,560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,864

Max offer price $379,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,750
• Closing costs: $11,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $379,000 Active
3. 2022-09-29
   soldstatus $329,900 Closed 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   New construction in Hickory Shores. Great open floor plan with principal suite on first floor, additional (2) bedrooms, flex room and sitting area on the second floor. High lot, two car garage and lovely neighborhood will make this a Must-Have! Anticipated completion is end September 2022 Professional photos & 3D tour coming soon.

4. 2022-08-27
   status Pending 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   New construction in Hickory Shores. Great open floor plan with principal suite on first floor, additional (2) bedrooms, flex room and sitting area on the second floor. High lot, two car garage and lovely neighborhood will make this a Must-Have! Anticipated completion is end September 2022 Professional photos & 3D tour coming soon.

5. 2022-08-22
   listed $329,900 Active 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   New construction in Hickory Shores. Great open floor plan with principal suite on first floor, additional (2) bedrooms, flex room and sitting area on the second floor. High lot, two car garage and lovely neighborhood will make this a Must-Have! Anticipated completion is end September 2022 Professional photos & 3D tour coming soon.

6. 2021-06-11
   soldstatus $51,000 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   This homesite is the perfect location for your next home. Whether you are ready to build now or in the future, you won't be disappointed in this well established waterfront community! And it is located in the highly desired Carteret County School District. This lot is cleared and ready for you to build in this neighborhood of Hickory Shores. 3 bedroom septic is already installed, just bring your floorplan! Enjoy the community features that include a private community pier, water access, & recreation area. Conveniently located to both Cape Carteret and Morehead City. Just minutes from the Crystal Coasts most beautiful beaches. And you are just a short few minutes from the intercoastal waterway. Come see your new homesite today!

7. 2020-06-16
   listed $53,900 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   This homesite is the perfect location for your next home. Whether you are ready to build now or in the future, you won't be disappointed in this well established waterfront community! And it is located in the highly desired Carteret County School District. This lot is cleared and ready for you to build in this neighborhood of Hickory Shores. 3 bedroom septic is already installed, just bring your floorplan! Enjoy the community features that include a private community pier, water access, & recreation area. Conveniently located to both Cape Carteret and Morehead City. Just minutes from the Crystal Coasts most beautiful beaches. And you are just a short few minutes from the intercoastal waterway. Come see your new homesite today!

8. 2020-05-01
   historical
9. 2019-05-06
   listed $53,900
10. 2016-04-01
    historical
11. 2015-01-23
    listed $80,500
12. 2014-08-31
    historical
13. 2014-01-04
    listed $88,500
14. 2007-02-23
    soldstatus $96,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,108 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,001/yr (+$167/mo · 180.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $149,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,230
• − Property taxes: −$1,107
• − Insurance: −$1,895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,936
• − Management: −$11,936
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$11,025
• Taxable income: $89,769
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$21,545
• After-tax cash flow: $69,170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

Livability — Bogue

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #13024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Carteret County · 52,389 people
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+294.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $379,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-09-29 Sold (MLS) $329,900 Hive MLS
• 2022-08-27 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2022-08-22 Listed $329,900 Hive MLS
• 2021-06-11 Sold (MLS) $51,000 Hive MLS
• 2020-06-16 Listed $53,900 Hive MLS
• 2020-05-01 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2019-05-06 Listed $53,900 Hive MLS
• 2016-04-01 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2015-01-23 Listed $80,500 Hive MLS
• 2014-08-31 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2014-01-04 Listed $88,500 Hive MLS
• 2007-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+23.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,107 · +20.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.