31 Marvin Ave · Lakewood, NY 14750

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1949 5,250 sqft lot Est $194k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Neat Village of Lakewood Cape that is perfect for the first time home buyer or someone looking to downsize. Lake access from the end of Pine St. makes this home affordable to someone from out of town who is looking for a weekend retreat. This home has many vinyl replacement windows, vinyl siding, roof replaced in 1994, furnace and hot water tank replaced 3 or 4 years ago

Key facts

• Deeded lake rights
• Private backyard
• Dedicated dog bath

Tags

• DEEDED LAKE RIGHTS
• COZY FIREPLACE
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• DEDICATED DOG BATH
• SHORT DISTANCE TO DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Vinyl siding; Entry level: main level; Asphalt roof; Existing construction
• Construction: Block foundation; Built (existing year)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Deeded lake access to Chautauqua Lake; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Separate/formal living room; Solid surface counters; Programmable thermostat; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $445 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.0% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#398 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Southwestern Central School District At Jamestown (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #373 of 590 in NY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southwestern Elementary School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 583 students, 36% FRL); Southwestern Middle School (math 26% / reading 55%, grade F, #409 of 729 statewide, top 56%, 307 students, 39% FRL); Southwestern Senior High School (math 98% / reading 95%, grade A+, #59 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 429 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $180k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $180,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.60%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,648
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Case Ave	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,125 (+6%)	10mo	$240,000	$213	78
145 E Terrace Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,076 (+1%)	11mo	$185,000	$172	72
24 East Second St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,163 (+9%)	19mo	$95,000	$82	56
19 Southland Ave	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	908 (-15%)	21mo	$175,000	$193	44
180 E Terrace Ave	0.42mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,216 (+14%)	9mo	$221,000	$182	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-737
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $36,142
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14750

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,284/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,636

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $547	-5% $496	+0% $445	+5% $394	+10% $343
Rent	-10% $272	-5% $358	+0% $445	+5% $532	+10% $619
Rate	-1.0pp $536	-0.5pp $491	base $445	+0.5pp $399	+1.0pp $351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3779 Heineman Rd Bemus Point, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	45d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $180,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $180,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-09
   listed $180,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,284 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,284 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$3,284
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $2,673
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$641
• After-tax cash flow: $4,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwestern Central School District At Jamestown
• NCES district ID: 3627660
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,567
• Composite: 43.21/100
• National rank: #3062
• State rank: #373 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #6904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,411

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.43%
• Current HPI: 318.8566
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+157.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $180,000 UNYREIS
• 2007-08-02 Sold (MLS) $64,500 UNYREIS
• 2007-05-15 Listed $69,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,284 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.