1052 Fernwood · South Lockport, NY 14094

$69,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market

Built 1990

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

From the minute you see this great home you'll want it! 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with vanity sinks. First floor laundry room (gas dryer) with storage. Entrance foyer with ceramic flooring brings you into the living room with cathedral ceiling. The dining room opens to the living room so you can still host those large gatherings! Large kitchen with gas stove & dbl stainless steel sink, lots of counters and cabinets and ceramic backsplash! Appliances included!!! Roof -1997, furnace and central air- 2009. Mkae-Fleetwood, serial#PAFLK22AB01282CG

Key facts

• Wired for electric
• Extra-wide shed
• Private guest suite

Tags

• PRIVATE GUEST SUITE
• REMOVABLE PRIVACY CURTAIN
• LOW-MAINTENANCE PERENNIALS
• EXTRA-WIDE SHED
• WIRED FOR ELECTRIC
• WORKBENCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease of $855

Exterior

• Parking: One-car garage; Carport
• Utilities: Cable available; High-speed internet available; Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home (Fleetwood); One-story; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Blown-in insulation; Asphalt shingle roof; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop and concrete driveways; Covered porch; Private yard; Shed(s)/storage; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas oven; Gas range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Bedroom measurements: Primary 13 x 13; two additional bedrooms 11 x 10 and 11 x 10; third bedroom 11 x 10
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; In-law floorplan; Main level primary; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 1.5% in South Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $70k implies a 379% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,245 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.00%
• DSCR: 2.87
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,300
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1163 Timberwood Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,283 (-5%)	18mo	$69,900	$54	63
6460 Rapids Rd	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-11%)	10mo	$335,000	$279	42
6440 Rapids Rd	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-11%)	19mo	$309,000	$258	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $33,139
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $88,958
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $729	-5% $705	+0% $681	+5% $657	+10% $633
Rent	-10% $565	-5% $623	+0% $681	+5% $739	+10% $797
Rate	-1.0pp $716	-0.5pp $699	base $681	+0.5pp $663	+1.0pp $645

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,500 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,500 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,500 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,500 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,500 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,500 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,500 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,500 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,500 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,500 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,500 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,500 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,500 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,500 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-10
    price $69,500
18. 2026-03-13
    listed $74,500 Active
19. 2012-02-14
    soldstatus $14,500 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    From the minute you see this great home you'll want it! 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with vanity sinks. First floor laundry room (gas dryer) with storage. Entrance foyer with ceramic flooring brings you into the living room with cathedral ceiling. The dining room opens to the living room so you can still host those large gatherings! Large kitchen with gas stove & dbl stainless steel sink, lots of counters and cabinets and ceramic backsplash! Appliances included!!! Roof -1997, furnace and central air- 2009. Mkae-Fleetwood, serial#PAFLK22AB01282CG

20. 2011-11-23
    listed $25,000 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    From the minute you see this great home you'll want it! 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with vanity sinks. First floor laundry room (gas dryer) with storage. Entrance foyer with ceramic flooring brings you into the living room with cathedral ceiling. The dining room opens to the living room so you can still host those large gatherings! Large kitchen with gas stove & dbl stainless steel sink, lots of counters and cabinets and ceramic backsplash! Appliances included!!! Roof -1997, furnace and central air- 2009. Mkae-Fleetwood, serial#PAFLK22AB01282CG

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,411
• − Management: −$1,411
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $7,514
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,803
• After-tax cash flow: $6,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Lockport

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #11642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+178.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $69,500 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $74,500 WNYREIS
• 2012-02-14 Sold (MLS) $14,500 WNYREIS
• 2011-11-23 Listed $25,000 WNYREIS