7 Magic Mountain Rd · Cazadero, CA 95421

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1972 1.01 ac lot $192/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This mobile home needs remodeling. Electrical service was upgraded with permits but the interior electrical needs to be completed. This is a fixer.

Key facts

• Space for storage
• Detached studio
• Storage containers

Tags

• DETACHED STUDIO
• STORAGE CONTAINERS
• SPACE FOR STORAGE
• SHORT DRIVE FROM SONOMA COAST
• SHORT DRIVE FROM DUNCANS MILLS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Magic Mountain Property Owners' Association; Association fee $2,300 annually; Association provides other amenities

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (unassigned)
• Utilities: Septic system
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-story; Main level includes bedrooms, full baths, and kitchen
• Construction: No ADU/second unit
• Exterior features: Lot allows no horses; Lot features: other

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: One-story home; Wood-burning fireplace; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $879 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $179k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#722 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, schools B; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• West Sonoma County Union High (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #143 of 517 in CA (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $179k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $179,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.04%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $27,057
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $95,981
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95421

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,191/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $879

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,651

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $980	-5% $930	+0% $879	+5% $828	+10% $778
Rent	-10% $661	-5% $770	+0% $879	+5% $988	+10% $1,097
Rate	-1.0pp $969	-0.5pp $924	base $879	+0.5pp $833	+1.0pp $785

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 628-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    listed $179,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,191 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,360 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$169/yr (+$14/mo · 14.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥84°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,191
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,653
• − Management: −$2,653
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $8,236
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,977
• After-tax cash flow: $8,571/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Sonoma County Union High
• NCES district ID: 0602670
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $61,845
• Composite: 43.45/100
• National rank: #3006
• State rank: #143 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cazadero

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #722
• US rank: #21405

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,453

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Scotch-Irish 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.86%
• Current HPI: 277.5282
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+404.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $179,000 BAREIS
• 2014-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 2014-11-21 Sold (MLS) $91,000 BAREIS
• 2014-11-02 Pending — BAREIS
• 2014-10-31 Delisted — BAREIS
• 2014-10-09 Listed $95,000 BAREIS
• 2012-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2012-12-31 Sold (MLS) $139,000 BAREIS
• 2012-12-08 Pending — BAREIS
• 2012-08-13 Price Changed $139,000 BAREIS
• 2012-07-18 Price Changed $145,000 BAREIS
• 2012-06-25 Listed $159,000 BAREIS
• 1995-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 1990-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $35,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,191 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.