188 Sweet Circle Dr · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$99,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Manufactured public records · 138 Days on market

Built 1982 4,931 sqft lot $279/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Become a share holder in this highly sought after 55+ gated community. If you are looking for the perfect retirement home, this one is for you! Located in Orange Manor West, it is one of the most popular 55+ communities in Winter Haven and surrounding area with many amenities. Pool, shuffle board, putt putt, horse shoes, crochet, bingo, lake access and much more. Legoland is around one mile away which is great for visiting family. This is a 1176 Square ft. 2 bedroom 2 bath 1991 mobile home with a front facing enclosed Florida room. The king size master bedroom has a walk-in closet and a private bathroom with step in shower. The monthly maintenance fee is $279.00 a month which includes cable

Key facts

• Gated community
• Walk-in closet
• Private bathroom

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• LAKE ACCESS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• STEP IN SHOWER
• FULLY FURNISHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community; Pets not allowed; Furnished (yes)
• Financial info: Total annual fees $3,348; Monthly HOA $279
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $279; includes cable TV, common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, internet, grounds maintenance, management, private road, recreational facilities, trash); Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, basketball court, shuffleboard court, recreation facilities, gated community, lobby key required; vehicle and fence restrictions; deed restrictions; buyer approval required; Association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Phone available; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Faces east; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed front porch; French doors; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Attic fan
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $528 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $100k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.72%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $15,617
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $49,412
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,298/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$279
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,203

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $584	-5% $556	+0% $528	+5% $499	+10% $471
Rent	-10% $380	-5% $454	+0% $528	+5% $601	+10% $675
Rate	-1.0pp $578	-0.5pp $553	base $528	+0.5pp $502	+1.0pp $476

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
670 Eagle Landing Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,999	$1.35	4d	1	0.69mi
3889 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,000	$1.35	24d	1	0.69mi
3916 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	4d	1	0.71mi
3912 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,900	$1.28	22d	1	0.71mi
4981 Kaia Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,875	$1.48	20d	1	0.74mi
4973 Kaia Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,900	$1.28	4d	1	0.75mi
3063 Laurel Oak Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,695	$1.34	15d	1	1.16mi
3063 Laurel Oak Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,695	$1.34	24d	1	1.16mi
1734 Carnostie Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,050	$1.45	24d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $279 · $3,348/yr
• Likely covers: cablepoolsecurity

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,500 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,500 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $99,500 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-01-31
    listed $105,000 Active
15. 2005-11-15
    soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,298 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,298 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,298
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − HOA: −$3,348
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $5,246
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,259
• After-tax cash flow: $5,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+238.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Listed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,298 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.