18717 Mill Villa Rd #537 · Jamestown, CA 95327

$190,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,393 sqft · Manufactured · 60 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $130k · 47% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2025 Skyline Stone Harbor Home 2 Bedrooms & 2 Bathrooms Approx 1,393 Square Feet 26.8' x 52' Front Porch Carpet & Vinyl Flooring Blinds Throughout Full Kitchen Appliance Package Washer & Dryer Hook-Ups Covered Carport & Storage Shed Spacious Layout Great Location & Much More!

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Front porch
• Storage shed

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• FULL KITCHEN APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• WASHER AND DRYER HOOK-UPS
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,393; Address: 18717 Mill Villa Rd #537, Jamestown, CA 95327; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $190,000

Exterior

• Home design: Spec home — Plan: Mill Villa #537; Single-level residence
• Construction: Built 2026
• Exterior features: Located within Mill Villa community

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($113/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.9% in Jamestown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#980 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing C-, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Sonora Union High (town): math 21% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #243 of 517 in CA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jamestown Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,179 of 1,571 statewide, top 78%, 350 students, 75% FRL); Sonora High (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 919 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $167,398 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.21%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,549
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18717 Mill Villa Rd #515	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,394 (+0%)	2mo	$130,000	$93	98
18717 Mill Villa Rd #636	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	3mo	$87,500	$65	92
18717 Mill Villa Rd. #610 #610	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	4mo	$110,000	$82	91
18717 Mill Villa Rd #310 #310	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	7mo	$100,000	$74	88
18717 Mill Villa Rd #407 #407	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	7mo	$118,000	$88	88
18717 Mill Villa Rd. #100 #100	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+3%)	3mo	$151,000	$105	87
18717 Mill Villa Rd #328	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	10mo	$125,000	$93	86
18717 Mill Villa Rd #314 #314	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	10mo	$130,000	$97	86
18717 Mill Villa Rd #619	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-4%)	6mo	$130,000	$97	84
18717 Mill Villa #547	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+8%)	1mo	$133,500	$89	81
18615 Vista Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (+5%)	8mo	$330,000	$226	70
11761 Essen Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-4%)	2mo	$242,000	$180	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,164
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-25,393
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95327

• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,674 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $141	-5% $75	+0% $9	+5% $-56	+10% $-122
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-57	+0% $9	+5% $76	+10% $142
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $58	base $9	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $190,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 38 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,607
• − Management: −$1,607
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$743
• After-tax cash flow: $856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 85/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathroom. It has a front porch and covered carport, and the exterior siding appears to be in good condition. The property has potential for further value increases through painting, landscaping, and smart home system upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the property's appeal and marketability.
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the kitchen and living areas — Upgrading the flooring can improve the overall aesthetic and functionality of the space.
• Both Installing a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the property's appeal and marketability. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the kitchen and living areas — Upgrading the flooring can improve the overall aesthetic and functionality of the space. ↑
• Both Installing a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonora Union High
• NCES district ID: 0637260
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,252
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5470
• State rank: #243 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #980
• US rank: #24642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime B Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,799

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.96%
• Current HPI: 100.2616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B