30510 Wolfburn St · Waller, TX 77484

$189,185

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,353 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $92/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable and efficient, the Davilla offers 3 bedrooms, an open-concept design filled with natural light, stainless steel appliances, energy-efficient features, a covered patio with storage, and available smart home upgrades.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 2026
• Listed 45 days

🏗️ New construction. The $189,185 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $219,758.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $189k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $175,714 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.34%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,758
• List price: $189,185
• Delta: -13.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30518 Wolfburn St	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,353 (0%)	2mo	$210,025	$155	97
30524 Wolfburn St	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,256 (-7%)	4mo	$195,035	$155	83
30511 Wolfburn St	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,497 (+11%)	2mo	$249,540	$167	78
23123 Daftmill Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-11%)	0mo	$239,230	$199	75
23111 Daftmill Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	0mo	$261,370	$173	74
23027 Daftmill Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	0mo	$249,240	$165	74
23107 Daftmill Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-11%)	2mo	$239,230	$199	74
30519 Longmorn Glass Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	2mo	$229,490	$152	73
23007 Daftmill Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	1mo	$219,990	$145	72
23015 Daftmill Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	1mo	$249,240	$165	72
23119 Daftmill Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	2mo	$239,970	$159	72
30550 Longmorn Glass Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+11%)	1mo	$239,660	$160	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-54,851
• Equity at exit: $32,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-85,579
• Equity at exit: $19,001

Cash invested: $61,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.9 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $250,990 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 235 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1496
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,152
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,296/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,039

Max offer price $187,554

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-71	-5% $-147	+0% $-223	+5% $-298	+10% $-374
Rent	-10% $-361	-5% $-292	+0% $-223	+5% $-153	+10% $-84
Rate	-1.0pp $-112	-0.5pp $-167	base $-223	+0.5pp $-279	+1.0pp $-337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,939
• Closing costs: $6,593
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community poolCurbs and gutters
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Association managed by Associate Principal Mgmt GroupAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-family style, 2-story layout implied
• Construction: Built in 2026Wood siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Backs to greenbelt/parkConcrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeMicrowaveDisposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13x11)Two additional bedrooms on second floor (each 10x10)One bedroom on first floor (10x10)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Tub/shower

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $189,185 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $189,185 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $189,185 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $189,185 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $189,185 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   pricedays on market $189,185 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $216,595 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   statusdays on market $216,595 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-07-01
   status $216,595 Pending 34 DOM
10. 2026-07-01
    days on market $216,595 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-30
    days on market $216,595 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-29
    days on market $216,595 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-28
    days on market $216,595 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-27
    days on market $216,595 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-06-26
    days on market $216,595 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-06-24
    days on market $216,595 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-06-21
    days on market $216,595 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-06-18
    days on market $216,595 Active 21 DOM
19. 2026-06-17
    days on market $216,595 Active 20 DOM
20. 2026-06-16
    days on market $216,595 Active 19 DOM
21. 2026-06-15
    days on market $216,595 Active 18 DOM
22. 2026-06-13
    days on market $216,595 Active 16 DOM
23. 2026-06-09
    days on market $216,595 Active 12 DOM
24. 2026-06-08
    days on market $216,595 Active 11 DOM
25. 2026-06-07
    days on market $216,595 Active 10 DOM
26. 2026-06-04
    days on market $216,595 Active 7 DOM
27. 2026-06-03
    days on market $216,595 Active 6 DOM
28. 2026-06-02
    days on market $216,595 Active 5 DOM
29. 2026-06-01
    days on market $216,595 Active 4 DOM
30. 2026-05-31
    days on market $216,595 Active 3 DOM
31. 2026-05-28
    listed $216,595 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,310
• − Property taxes: −$3,296
• − Insurance: −$1,099
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
• − Management: −$1,687
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$6,393
• Taxable loss: −$6,490
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,558
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This newly constructed single-family home by Centex is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern amenities, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fields Store El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community poolCurbs and gutters
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Association managed by Associate Principal Mgmt GroupAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-family style, 2-story layout implied
• Construction: Built in 2026Wood siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Backs to greenbelt/parkConcrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeMicrowaveDisposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13x11)Two additional bedrooms on second floor (each 10x10)One bedroom on first floor (10x10)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Tub/shower

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $189,185 Zillow
• 2026-05-30 Listed $216,595 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Listed $216,595 HARMLS