18162 9th Ave · Jamestown, CA 95327

$235,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1987 4,602 sqft lot Est $441k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Positioned on a spacious, fully fenced lot in Jamestown, this single-story property presents a rare opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers looking to create something truly special from the ground up. Surrounded by mature trees and a peaceful natural setting, the property offers a beautiful backdrop, but it is important to note that the home is being sold as-is and requires significant repairs, updating, and overall TLC to reach its full potential. From the moment you arrive, the setting stands out. Towering mature trees provide shade, privacy, and a sense of established character that is increasingly hard to find. The fully fenced lot offers structure and security, while the front

Key facts

• Front porch
• Zoned r-2
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• MATURE TREES
• FRONT PORCH
• EXPANSIVE OUTDOOR SPACE
• ZONED R-2

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No accessory dwelling unit (ADU); No common walls (detached); Total units: 1

Exterior

• Utilities: 220V electrical throughout; Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: House; Single-story; Front entry
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Certified 433a foundation; Built year available from public records
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Rectangular lot shape; Suburban setting; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminated flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Cathedral/vaulted ceilings; Granite counters; One-level entry (front entry); Has view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.9% in Jamestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#980 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing C-, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Sonora Union High (town): math 21% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #243 of 517 in CA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jamestown Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,179 of 1,571 statewide, top 78%, 350 students, 75% FRL); Sonora High (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 919 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $235k implies a 658% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,370 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.72%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $440,640
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18189 5th Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,611 (-1%)	4mo	$380,000	$236	82
10626 River Oak Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (+5%)	1mo	$465,000	$274	62
18128 4th	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,724 (+6%)	20mo	$360,000	$209	60
17846 Black Bart	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,710 (+6%)	15mo	$394,000	$230	56
18120 4th	0.29mi	4/3.0	1,705 (+5%)	21mo	$510,000	$299	56
10661 Mountain Oaks Ct	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,617 (-0%)	15mo	$455,000	$281	55
11042 Campo Seco Rd	0.50mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,670 (+3%)	13mo	$250,000	$150	52
18450 Golden Oaks Dr	0.58mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,675 (+3%)	9mo	$455,000	$272	49
10668 Mountain Oak	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,545 (-5%)	24mo	$524,900	$340	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-32,176
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-20,673
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95327

• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,924 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,143/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,805

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $227	-5% $161	+0% $94	+5% $28	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-58	-5% $18	+0% $94	+5% $170	+10% $246
Rate	-1.0pp $213	-0.5pp $154	base $94	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $235,000 Active 45 DOM
18. 2026-04-15
    listed $235,000 Active
19. 2000-05-31
    soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,143 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,786 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$643/yr (+$54/mo · 56.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,143
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,847
• − Management: −$1,847
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$2,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$703
• After-tax cash flow: $1,833/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonora Union High
• NCES district ID: 0637260
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,252
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5470
• State rank: #243 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #980
• US rank: #24642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime B Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,799

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.96%
• Current HPI: 100.2616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+658.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $235,000 CRMLS
• 2000-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,143 · -67.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.