4950 Cottrell Road Rd · Tuscola, MI 48768

$74,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1950 0.57 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors for this Vassar home that is in a great location. Home is in very rough shape sellers have said they will get a dumpster and remove all junk and debris. This special thing about this property is is comes with an additional lot, House sets on a lot that is 107X198 and the extra lot is 107X198,

Key facts

• Great location
• Additional lot
• 0.57 acre lot

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• ADDITIONAL LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 125 x 199; Lot size about 0.57 acre

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room; Partial basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($989 rent vs $75k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Vassar Public Schools (town): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #450 of 540 in MI (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Tuscola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscola County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $74,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.10%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,604
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
953 Day Rd	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,360 (-2%)	10mo	$150,000	$110	59
738 Richard St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,319 (-5%)	1mo	$175,000	$133	57
391 Shirley St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	16mo	$170,000	$122	54
1023 King James Ct	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,545 (+11%)	7mo	$260,000	$168	53
5090 Cottrell Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,534 (+10%)	22mo	$210,000	$137	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $4,684
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $25,779
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48768

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $989 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $316	-5% $290	+0% $264	+5% $238	+10% $212
Rent	-10% $186	-5% $225	+0% $264	+5% $303	+10% $342
Rate	-1.0pp $302	-0.5pp $283	base $264	+0.5pp $244	+1.0pp $225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $74,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 316-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $74,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$950
• − Management: −$950
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $2,099
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$504
• After-tax cash flow: $2,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vassar Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634710
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $41,418
• Composite: 18.74/100
• National rank: #8878
• State rank: #450 of 540 in MI

Livability — Tuscola

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,144

Population outlook (Tuscola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,930 people
• By 2030: 47,294 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 41,504 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 35,560 · -28.8%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -51.0%
• By 2100: 16,507 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscola

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.0) · D 27.9% · R 70.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.8pp · 2024: -43.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.0 2020: R+39.3 2016: R+38.0 2012: R+10.8 2008: R+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.32%
• Current HPI: 257.233
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-16.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-11 Listed $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-08-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-08-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $64,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $64,500 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $89,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $89,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $99,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $99,500 REALCOMP
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $109,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-14 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $109,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-04-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-04-06 Listed $119,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-04-06 Listed $119,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $45 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.