5284 Stumberg Ln Unit D · Baton Rouge, LA 70816

$127,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 5,550 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1987 871 sqft lot $23/sqft · 76% below area Est $127k · at est. $300/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A charming home ready for you. The kitchen includes a brand-new dishwasher and a cozy dining area ideal for everyday meals or hosting guests. The spacious living room provides plenty of comfort, featuring a ceiling fan and a convenient half bathroom downstairs. Upstairs offers two comfortable bedrooms and a full bathroom. Enjoy your own private, fenced-in patio--perfect for peaceful outdoor moments. (measurements are not warranted by realtor)

Key facts

• Cozy dining area
• Brand-new dishwasher
• Spacious living room

Tags

• BRAND-NEW DISHWASHER
• COZY DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• PRIVATE FENCED-IN PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $127k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#24 in LA, #4,535 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, employment D-.
• East Baton Rouge Parish (urban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #47 of 98 in LA (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 250 active listings in the ZIP; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $93k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,108 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,353
• List price: $127,000
• Delta: -0.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-32,520
• Equity at exit: $18,936

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-52,273
• Equity at exit: $10,981

Cash invested: $35,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70816

• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,340/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,431

Max offer price $103,108

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,750
• Closing costs: $3,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $127,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $127,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $127,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $127,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $127,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $127,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $127,000 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    A charming home ready for you. The kitchen includes a brand-new dishwasher and a cozy dining area ideal for everyday meals or hosting guests. The spacious living room provides plenty of comfort, featuring a ceiling fan and a convenient half bathroom downstairs. Upstairs offers two comfortable bedrooms and a full bathroom. Enjoy your own private, fenced-in patio—perfect for peaceful outdoor moments. (measurements are not warranted by realtor)

17. 2026-05-07
    price $127,000 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    A charming home ready for you. The kitchen includes a brand-new dishwasher and a cozy dining area ideal for everyday meals or hosting guests. The spacious living room provides plenty of comfort, featuring a ceiling fan and a convenient half bathroom downstairs. Upstairs offers two comfortable bedrooms and a full bathroom. Enjoy your own private, fenced-in patio—perfect for peaceful outdoor moments. (measurements are not warranted by realtor)

18. 2026-03-05
    listed $130,000 Active 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    A charming home ready for you. The kitchen includes a brand-new dishwasher and a cozy dining area ideal for everyday meals or hosting guests. The spacious living room provides plenty of comfort, featuring a ceiling fan and a convenient half bathroom downstairs. Upstairs offers two comfortable bedrooms and a full bathroom. Enjoy your own private, fenced-in patio—perfect for peaceful outdoor moments. (measurements are not warranted by realtor)

19. 2026-03-05
    listed $130,000 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    A charming home ready for you. The kitchen includes a brand-new dishwasher and a cozy dining area ideal for everyday meals or hosting guests. The spacious living room provides plenty of comfort, featuring a ceiling fan and a convenient half bathroom downstairs. Upstairs offers two comfortable bedrooms and a full bathroom. Enjoy your own private, fenced-in patio—perfect for peaceful outdoor moments. (measurements are not warranted by realtor)

20. 2025-04-30
    soldstatus Closed
21. 2025-04-02
    status Pending
22. 2025-03-21
    status Active
23. 2025-02-13
    status Pending
24. 2025-02-03
    price $79,900
25. 2025-02-03
    price $79,900
26. 2024-12-11
    listed $89,900 Active
27. 2024-12-11
    historical
28. 2024-11-21
    price $89,900
29. 2024-11-20
    price $89,900
30. 2024-11-07
    price $99,900
31. 2024-11-06
    price $99,900
32. 2024-10-22
    price $109,900
33. 2024-10-21
    price $109,900
34. 2024-09-04
    listed $114,900 Active
35. 2024-09-04
    listed $114,900 Active
36. 2024-06-07
    soldstatus $92,567
37. 2024-01-01
    historical
38. 2023-09-08
    price $100,000
39. 2023-08-07
    price $105,000
40. 2023-07-07
    listed $110,000 Active
41. 2023-07-07
    listed $100,000
42. 2018-02-21
    soldstatus $93,400
43. 2005-06-03
    soldstatus $78,900
44. 2004-04-28
    listed $76,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,340 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,340 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,114
• − Property taxes: −$1,340
• − Insurance: −$635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,210
• − Management: −$1,210
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$3,695
• Taxable loss: −$3,683
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$884
• After-tax cash flow: $-739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Baton Rouge Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200540
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $46,263
• Composite: 24.14/100
• National rank: #7745
• State rank: #47 of 98 in LA

Livability — Baton Rouge

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #4535

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baton Rouge, LA
• County: East Baton Rouge Parish · 399,686 people
• City population: 351,868
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 45,718
• Household income: $67,353
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2162.0

Population outlook (East Baton Rouge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 464,810 people
• By 2030: 472,137 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 480,243 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 484,422 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 492,069 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 476,347 · +2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% White 38% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · East Baton Rouge

• 2024 margin: D (+11.1) · D 54.5% · R 43.4% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: 11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+11.1 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+9.2 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.21%
• Current HPI: 157.3823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+65.1% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $127,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $127,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $130,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $130,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-04-30 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2025-04-02 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2025-03-21 Relisted — GBRMLS
• 2025-02-13 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $79,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $79,900 GBRMLS
• 2024-12-11 Listed $89,900 GBRMLS
• 2024-12-11 Delisted — GBRMLS
• 2024-11-21 Price Changed $89,900 GBRMLS
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $89,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-11-07 Price Changed $99,900 GBRMLS
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $99,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $109,900 GBRMLS
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $109,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-09-04 Listed $114,900 GBRMLS
• 2024-09-04 Listed $114,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $92,567 Public Records
• 2024-01-01 Delisted — GBRMLS
• 2023-09-08 Price Changed $100,000 GBRMLS
• 2023-08-07 Price Changed $105,000 GBRMLS
• 2023-07-07 Listed $100,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2023-07-07 Listed $110,000 GBRMLS
• 2018-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $93,400 Public Records
• 2005-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $78,900 Public Records
• 2004-04-28 Listed $76,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+22.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,340 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.