204 SE Gingerbread Ln · Blue Springs, MO 64014

$300,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,932 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1979 9,026 sqft lot Est $298k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold before processed

Key facts

• Updated property
• New flooring
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• UPDATED PROPERTY
• NEW INTERIOR EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• NEW LIGHTING AND HARDWARE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-534/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Blue Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#11 in MO, #1,297 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Blue Springs R-IV (suburban): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #17 of 324 in MO (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: William Bryant Elem. (math 47% / reading 48%, grade D, #342 of 1,115 statewide, top 31%, 437 students, 30% FRL); Moreland Ridge Middle (math 51% / reading 55%, grade C+, #51 of 391 statewide, top 13%, 1,071 students, 31% FRL); Blue Springs South High (math 43% / reading 72%, grade C, #49 of 521 statewide, top 9%, 2,261 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $247,102 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.64%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,528
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 SE Gingerbread Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,951 (+1%)	1mo	$300,000	$154	93
1004 SE Gingerbread Ct	0.05mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-8%)	5mo	$300,000	$169	75
613 SE Bugle Ct	0.40mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,736 (-10%)	8mo	$289,000	$166	51
308 W Walnut St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,928 (-0%)	13mo	$240,000	$124	50
125 SE Moore St	0.64mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,214 (+15%)	8mo	$289,800	$131	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-46,076
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-20,749
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64014

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,471 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,581/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,527

Max offer price $292,134

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $40	+0% $-45	+5% $-129	+10% $-214
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-142	+0% $-45	+5% $53	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $32	base $-45	+0.5pp $-122	+1.0pp $-201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1707 SW Walnut St Blue Springs, MO	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,600	$1.44	19d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $300,000 Active
3. 2022-06-29
   soldstatus
4. 2022-06-28
   soldstatus Closed 21-char remark

   Show marketing remark (21 chars)

   Sold before processed

5. 2022-06-15
   listed $222,000 21-char remark

   Show marketing remark (21 chars)

   Sold before processed

6. 2022-06-15
   historical 21-char remark

   Show marketing remark (21 chars)

   Sold before processed

7. 1991-07-19
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,581 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,581 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,581
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,372
• − Management: −$2,372
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,705
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,369
• After-tax cash flow: $835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Springs R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $67,959
• Composite: 50.71/100
• National rank: #1819
• State rank: #17 of 324 in MO

Livability — Blue Springs

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #1297

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blue Springs, MO
• County: Jackson County · 687,798 people
• City population: 61,033
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 28,788
• Household income: $90,337
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 888.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 719,589 people
• By 2030: 731,456 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 746,689 · +3.8%
• By 2050: 749,289 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 736,227 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 668,210 · -7.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 10% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: D (+19.3) · D 58.9% · R 39.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.1pp toward R · 2008: 25.4pp · 2024: 19.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.3 2020: D+22.0 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.52%
• Current HPI: 236.8685
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.12%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+35.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $300,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-28 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-15 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-15 Listed $222,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,581 · +14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.