1473 Towhee Canyon Dr · Gonzalez, FL 32533

$280,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,085 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2009 6,098 sqft lot $134/sqft · 6% below area Est $297k · 6% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2009, 1473 Towhee Canyon is an all-brick 4-bedroom home with 2,085 square feet, two dining areas, and a side-entry garage located in the Pine Meadow, Ransom, and Tate school districts. Every now and then a floor plan really stands out—and this one did. This home features a spacious living room that creates a great entertaining space, complete with updated neutral wood-look laminate flooring that adds warmth while remaining easy to maintain. The living area flows naturally into the kitchen and dining spaces, making the layout both comfortable and functional. The kitchen offers tons of cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for additional storage, along with a breakfast nook that provides the perfect spot for casual meals or morning coffee. With both a dining area and breakfast nook, you'll enjoy two dining spaces that work well for everyday living and gathering with friends and family. Whether you're hosting friends, enjoying family dinners, or simply relaxing at home, the layout of this home makes everyday living feel easy and connected. With four bedrooms and two bathrooms, the home provides flexibility for families, guests, or even a home office. Outside, you'll appreciate the two-car side-entry garage and an easy-to-maintain yard. While there is a neighbor on one side, the property enjoys no neighbors behind or to the left, creating a more open feel and added privacy. With solid brick construction and a floor plan that makes excellent use of the 2,085 square feet, this home offers tremendous value at $289,900. Bonus: The seller is willing to replace the roof with an acceptable offer, providing added peace of mind for the next owner.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Two dining spaces
• Tons of cabinetry

Tags

• ALL BRICK HOME
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• TONS OF CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• TWO DINING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 512 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $280k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,425 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,988
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -5.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1458 Towhee Canyon Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,044 (-2%)	4mo	$290,000	$142	87
1430 Towhee Canyon Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0	1,952 (-6%)	1mo	$293,000	$150	80
809 Bunting Ct	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,822 (-13%)	1mo	$297,600	$163	77
1935 Winners Cir	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,087 (+0%)	4mo	$300,000	$144	66
1825 Peace Ter	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,845 (-12%)	2mo	$359,900	$195	57
1499 Old Chemstrand Rd	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-4%)	20mo	$300,000	$150	53
1012 Brandermill Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,947 (-7%)	16mo	$405,000	$208	50
1260 Plata Canada Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,980 (-5%)	19mo	$289,999	$146	50
2065 Winners Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,909 (-8%)	1mo	$280,000	$147	49
1240 Tate Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-6%)	14mo	$278,000	$143	49
1219 Plata Canada Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,799 (-14%)	18mo	$277,000	$154	30
1025 Rachel Cir	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,776 (-15%)	22mo	$345,000	$194	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-52,905
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-55,680
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 512
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,855/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,445

Max offer price $259,016

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $40	-5% $-40	+0% $-119	+5% $-198	+10% $-277
Rent	-10% $-300	-5% $-209	+0% $-119	+5% $-28	+10% $62
Rate	-1.0pp $22	-0.5pp $-48	base $-119	+0.5pp $-191	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $280,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $285,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $285,000 1698-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1698 chars)

    Built in 2009, 1473 Towhee Canyon is an all-brick 4-bedroom home with 2,085 square feet, two dining areas, and a side-entry garage located in the Pine Meadow, Ransom, and Tate school districts. Every now and then a floor plan really stands out—and this one did. This home features a spacious living room that creates a great entertaining space, complete with updated neutral wood-look laminate flooring that adds warmth while remaining easy to maintain. The living area flows naturally into the kitchen and dining spaces, making the layout both comfortable and functional. The kitchen offers tons of cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for additional storage, along with a breakfast nook that provides the perfect spot for casual meals or morning coffee. With both a dining area and breakfast nook, you'll enjoy two dining spaces that work well for everyday living and gathering with friends and family. Whether you're hosting friends, enjoying family dinners, or simply relaxing at home, the layout of this home makes everyday living feel easy and connected. With four bedrooms and two bathrooms, the home provides flexibility for families, guests, or even a home office. Outside, you'll appreciate the two-car side-entry garage and an easy-to-maintain yard. While there is a neighbor on one side, the property enjoys no neighbors behind or to the left, creating a more open feel and added privacy. With solid brick construction and a floor plan that makes excellent use of the 2,085 square feet, this home offers tremendous value at $289,900. Bonus: The seller is willing to replace the roof with an acceptable offer, providing added peace of mind for the next owner.

17. 2026-04-18
    price $295,000 1698-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1698 chars)

    Built in 2009, 1473 Towhee Canyon is an all-brick 4-bedroom home with 2,085 square feet, two dining areas, and a side-entry garage located in the Pine Meadow, Ransom, and Tate school districts. Every now and then a floor plan really stands out—and this one did. This home features a spacious living room that creates a great entertaining space, complete with updated neutral wood-look laminate flooring that adds warmth while remaining easy to maintain. The living area flows naturally into the kitchen and dining spaces, making the layout both comfortable and functional. The kitchen offers tons of cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for additional storage, along with a breakfast nook that provides the perfect spot for casual meals or morning coffee. With both a dining area and breakfast nook, you'll enjoy two dining spaces that work well for everyday living and gathering with friends and family. Whether you're hosting friends, enjoying family dinners, or simply relaxing at home, the layout of this home makes everyday living feel easy and connected. With four bedrooms and two bathrooms, the home provides flexibility for families, guests, or even a home office. Outside, you'll appreciate the two-car side-entry garage and an easy-to-maintain yard. While there is a neighbor on one side, the property enjoys no neighbors behind or to the left, creating a more open feel and added privacy. With solid brick construction and a floor plan that makes excellent use of the 2,085 square feet, this home offers tremendous value at $289,900. Bonus: The seller is willing to replace the roof with an acceptable offer, providing added peace of mind for the next owner.

18. 2026-04-18
    status Active 1698-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1698 chars)

    Built in 2009, 1473 Towhee Canyon is an all-brick 4-bedroom home with 2,085 square feet, two dining areas, and a side-entry garage located in the Pine Meadow, Ransom, and Tate school districts. Every now and then a floor plan really stands out—and this one did. This home features a spacious living room that creates a great entertaining space, complete with updated neutral wood-look laminate flooring that adds warmth while remaining easy to maintain. The living area flows naturally into the kitchen and dining spaces, making the layout both comfortable and functional. The kitchen offers tons of cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for additional storage, along with a breakfast nook that provides the perfect spot for casual meals or morning coffee. With both a dining area and breakfast nook, you'll enjoy two dining spaces that work well for everyday living and gathering with friends and family. Whether you're hosting friends, enjoying family dinners, or simply relaxing at home, the layout of this home makes everyday living feel easy and connected. With four bedrooms and two bathrooms, the home provides flexibility for families, guests, or even a home office. Outside, you'll appreciate the two-car side-entry garage and an easy-to-maintain yard. While there is a neighbor on one side, the property enjoys no neighbors behind or to the left, creating a more open feel and added privacy. With solid brick construction and a floor plan that makes excellent use of the 2,085 square feet, this home offers tremendous value at $289,900. Bonus: The seller is willing to replace the roof with an acceptable offer, providing added peace of mind for the next owner.

19. 2026-03-13
    historical 1698-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1698 chars)

    Built in 2009, 1473 Towhee Canyon is an all-brick 4-bedroom home with 2,085 square feet, two dining areas, and a side-entry garage located in the Pine Meadow, Ransom, and Tate school districts. Every now and then a floor plan really stands out—and this one did. This home features a spacious living room that creates a great entertaining space, complete with updated neutral wood-look laminate flooring that adds warmth while remaining easy to maintain. The living area flows naturally into the kitchen and dining spaces, making the layout both comfortable and functional. The kitchen offers tons of cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for additional storage, along with a breakfast nook that provides the perfect spot for casual meals or morning coffee. With both a dining area and breakfast nook, you'll enjoy two dining spaces that work well for everyday living and gathering with friends and family. Whether you're hosting friends, enjoying family dinners, or simply relaxing at home, the layout of this home makes everyday living feel easy and connected. With four bedrooms and two bathrooms, the home provides flexibility for families, guests, or even a home office. Outside, you'll appreciate the two-car side-entry garage and an easy-to-maintain yard. While there is a neighbor on one side, the property enjoys no neighbors behind or to the left, creating a more open feel and added privacy. With solid brick construction and a floor plan that makes excellent use of the 2,085 square feet, this home offers tremendous value at $289,900. Bonus: The seller is willing to replace the roof with an acceptable offer, providing added peace of mind for the next owner.

20. 2026-03-12
    listed $289,900 Active 1698-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1698 chars)

    Built in 2009, 1473 Towhee Canyon is an all-brick 4-bedroom home with 2,085 square feet, two dining areas, and a side-entry garage located in the Pine Meadow, Ransom, and Tate school districts. Every now and then a floor plan really stands out—and this one did. This home features a spacious living room that creates a great entertaining space, complete with updated neutral wood-look laminate flooring that adds warmth while remaining easy to maintain. The living area flows naturally into the kitchen and dining spaces, making the layout both comfortable and functional. The kitchen offers tons of cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for additional storage, along with a breakfast nook that provides the perfect spot for casual meals or morning coffee. With both a dining area and breakfast nook, you'll enjoy two dining spaces that work well for everyday living and gathering with friends and family. Whether you're hosting friends, enjoying family dinners, or simply relaxing at home, the layout of this home makes everyday living feel easy and connected. With four bedrooms and two bathrooms, the home provides flexibility for families, guests, or even a home office. Outside, you'll appreciate the two-car side-entry garage and an easy-to-maintain yard. While there is a neighbor on one side, the property enjoys no neighbors behind or to the left, creating a more open feel and added privacy. With solid brick construction and a floor plan that makes excellent use of the 2,085 square feet, this home offers tremendous value at $289,900. Bonus: The seller is willing to replace the roof with an acceptable offer, providing added peace of mind for the next owner.

21. 2018-07-03
    soldstatus $155,000
22. 2018-06-30
    soldstatus $155,000 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    This is a very nice home, all brick with great floor plan, family room opens to the dining area, kitchen has a breakfast bar,pantry,breakfast nook,stainless steel appliances with real wood cabinets. laundry room between kitchen and garage, split floor plan, master bedroom is up front and the others bedroom down the hallway. back door leads to a small deck and small back yard, privacy fenced. fabric storm panels. Conveniently located to UWF and 9 mile rd.

23. 2018-05-09
    listed $159,000 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    This is a very nice home, all brick with great floor plan, family room opens to the dining area, kitchen has a breakfast bar,pantry,breakfast nook,stainless steel appliances with real wood cabinets. laundry room between kitchen and garage, split floor plan, master bedroom is up front and the others bedroom down the hallway. back door leads to a small deck and small back yard, privacy fenced. fabric storm panels. Conveniently located to UWF and 9 mile rd.

24. 2015-05-06
    historical
25. 2014-08-15
    listed $162,500
26. 2011-01-07
    listed $157,900
27. 2009-07-01
    soldstatus $102,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,855 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,855 · $321/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$3,855
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,202
• − Management: −$2,202
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$6,258
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,502
• After-tax cash flow: $77/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gonzalez, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+179.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $285,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $295,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $289,900 PARMLS
• 2018-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-30 Sold (MLS) $155,000 PARMLS
• 2018-05-09 Listed $159,000 PARMLS
• 2015-05-06 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2014-08-15 Listed $162,500 PARMLS
• 2011-01-07 Listed $157,900 PARMLS
• 2009-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,855 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.