449 Shire Dr Unit A · Clifton, CO 81504

$120,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Condo public records

Built 1978 $150/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently remodeled and move in ready! This cute 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom 800 square foot ranch style home is the perfect lock and leave opportunity for you! Upgrades include new paint, flooring, and fixtures throughout, new refrigerator, dishwasher, electric range oven and built in microwave. New cabinetry and countertops, and so much more! Come see for yourself everything this condo has to offer!

Key facts

• $150 HOA
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.3% in Clifton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#140 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, commute A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chatfield Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #568 of 966 statewide, top 60%, 401 students, 62% FRL); Grand Mesa Middle School (math 13% / reading 29%, grade F, #198 of 270 statewide, top 74%, 511 students, 59% FRL); Central High School (math 19% / reading 43%, grade F, #229 of 381 statewide, top 60%, 1,613 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 39% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.89%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-10,402
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,519
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81504

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,316 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $879/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,142

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $205	-5% $171	+0% $137	+5% $103	+10% $69
Rent	-10% $33	-5% $85	+0% $137	+5% $189	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $197	-0.5pp $167	base $137	+0.5pp $106	+1.0pp $74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
461 Topaz Dr Unit C Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	21d	1	0.31mi
463 Topaz Dr Unit D Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	21d	1	0.32mi
3210 Diamond Ct Unit B Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	21d	1	0.36mi
3197 Hill Ave Unit 3 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	1022	$1,095	$1.07	21d	1	0.38mi
3216 Chipeta Ct Unit 4 Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	1024	$1,250	$1.22	21d	1	0.47mi
3221 Chipeta Ct Apt 3 Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	984	$1,000	$1.02	21d	1	0.49mi
491 32 1/8 Rd Unit 2 Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	890	$1,200	$1.35	21d	1	0.56mi
3238 D 1/4 Rd Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	952	$2,000	$2.10	14d	1	0.66mi
451 Davis Rd Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	1102	$1,400	$1.27	21d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Likely covers: electric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2025-08-22
   historical
2. 2025-08-20
   listed $120,000
3. 2023-12-08
   soldstatus $160,000 Closed 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   Recently remodeled and move in ready! This cute 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom 800 square foot ranch style home is the perfect lock and leave opportunity for you! Upgrades include new paint, flooring, and fixtures throughout, new refrigerator, dishwasher, electric range oven and built in microwave. New cabinetry and countertops, and so much more! Come see for yourself everything this condo has to offer!

4. 2023-12-08
   soldstatus $160,000

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   Recently remodeled and move in ready! This cute 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom 800 square foot ranch style home is the perfect lock and leave opportunity for you! Upgrades include new paint, flooring, and fixtures throughout, new refrigerator, dishwasher, electric range oven and built in microwave. New cabinetry and countertops, and so much more! Come see for yourself everything this condo has to offer!

5. 2023-10-17
   status Pending 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   Recently remodeled and move in ready! This cute 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom 800 square foot ranch style home is the perfect lock and leave opportunity for you! Upgrades include new paint, flooring, and fixtures throughout, new refrigerator, dishwasher, electric range oven and built in microwave. New cabinetry and countertops, and so much more! Come see for yourself everything this condo has to offer!

6. 2023-08-31
   status Active 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   Recently remodeled and move in ready! This cute 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom 800 square foot ranch style home is the perfect lock and leave opportunity for you! Upgrades include new paint, flooring, and fixtures throughout, new refrigerator, dishwasher, electric range oven and built in microwave. New cabinetry and countertops, and so much more! Come see for yourself everything this condo has to offer!

7. 2023-08-21
   status Pending 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   Recently remodeled and move in ready! This cute 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom 800 square foot ranch style home is the perfect lock and leave opportunity for you! Upgrades include new paint, flooring, and fixtures throughout, new refrigerator, dishwasher, electric range oven and built in microwave. New cabinetry and countertops, and so much more! Come see for yourself everything this condo has to offer!

8. 2023-08-15
   historical 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   Recently remodeled and move in ready! This cute 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom 800 square foot ranch style home is the perfect lock and leave opportunity for you! Upgrades include new paint, flooring, and fixtures throughout, new refrigerator, dishwasher, electric range oven and built in microwave. New cabinetry and countertops, and so much more! Come see for yourself everything this condo has to offer!

9. 2023-08-09
   status Pending 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   Recently remodeled and move in ready! This cute 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom 800 square foot ranch style home is the perfect lock and leave opportunity for you! Upgrades include new paint, flooring, and fixtures throughout, new refrigerator, dishwasher, electric range oven and built in microwave. New cabinetry and countertops, and so much more! Come see for yourself everything this condo has to offer!

10. 2023-06-28
    listed $164,000 Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Recently remodeled and move in ready! This cute 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom 800 square foot ranch style home is the perfect lock and leave opportunity for you! Upgrades include new paint, flooring, and fixtures throughout, new refrigerator, dishwasher, electric range oven and built in microwave. New cabinetry and countertops, and so much more! Come see for yourself everything this condo has to offer!

11. 2008-10-23
    soldstatus $112,900
12. 2008-10-17
    soldstatus $112,900 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Open daily 1 to 5 New paint, laundry and bath flooring. FHA approved. Zero down with Rural Housing Loan. Call James at Fidelity 242-7000. Located on a dead end street, this condo is one of 8 in the complex. Day care across the street and Chatfield Elementry within a block. Roomy unit with strong HOA in place for water, sewer, trash, insurance, maintenance and grounds. Storage unit included and covered parking. Vacant, immediate occupancy available. All info subject to error and change.

13. 2007-10-29
    listed $112,900 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Open daily 1 to 5 New paint, laundry and bath flooring. FHA approved. Zero down with Rural Housing Loan. Call James at Fidelity 242-7000. Located on a dead end street, this condo is one of 8 in the complex. Day care across the street and Chatfield Elementry within a block. Roomy unit with strong HOA in place for water, sewer, trash, insurance, maintenance and grounds. Storage unit included and covered parking. Vacant, immediate occupancy available. All info subject to error and change.

14. 2007-07-05
    soldstatus $725,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $879 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $879 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$879
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,263
• − Management: −$1,263
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$230
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$55
• After-tax cash flow: $1,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesa County Valley School District No. 51
• NCES district ID: 0804350
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,189
• Composite: 27.83/100
• National rank: #6884
• State rank: #43 of 86 in CO

Livability — Clifton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #11665

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clifton, CO
• County: Mesa County · 143,088 people
• City population: 12,892
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• Population (ZIP): 32,376
• Household income: $70,958
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 808.0

Population outlook (Mesa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,000 people
• By 2030: 154,479 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 155,257 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 153,384 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 144,735 · -5.4%
• By 2100: 123,825 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Mesa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 36.6% · R 61.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -29.5pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+28.0 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+29.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.40%
• Current HPI: 309.0092
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.20%
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-83.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-22 Delisted — GJARA
• 2025-08-20 Listed $120,000 GJARA
• 2023-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-08 Sold (MLS) $160,000 GJARA
• 2023-10-17 Pending — GJARA
• 2023-08-31 Relisted — GJARA
• 2023-08-21 Pending — GJARA
• 2023-08-15 Delisted — GJARA
• 2023-08-09 Pending — GJARA
• 2023-06-28 Listed $164,000 GJARA
• 2008-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $112,900 Public Records
• 2008-10-17 Sold (MLS) $112,900 cren
• 2007-10-29 Listed $112,900 cren
• 2007-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $725,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $879 · +220.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.