3105 Palm Warbler Ct · Indian River Estates, FL 34952

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2005 6,999 sqft lot Est $157k · 27% under $309/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Gorgeous, move in Ready! $20,000 price reduction! Located in fabulous 55+ Savanna Club. This 2-bedroom, 2 bath home has been meticulously maintained. Offered partially furnished. Large carport. roof replaced in 2020, A/C in 2019. 18-hole golf course located in Savanna Club, 3 club houses (one is totally fitness), tennis courts, Pickel ball, bocce, 3 heated pools, Accordion hurricane shutters, sprinkler on a well. HTW replaced in 2025. Active social community. Fitness center in each clubhouse. Restaurant also in Savanna Club. Large master suite. Double sinks in master bath. Fully equipped kitchen. Breakfast nook adjacent to kitchen. Full size washer and dryer, indoors. 700 seat theatre. Sava

Key facts

• Tennis courts
• 3 club houses
• 18 hole golf course

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• ROOF REPLACED
• A/C IN
• 18 HOLE GOLF COURSE
• 3 CLUB HOUSES
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community
• Financial info: Land lease in effect (monthly land lease); Pets allowed with restrictions (dogs allowed, breed restrictions, number limit, possible pet restrictions)
• HOA & community: Has association (Savanna Club Home Association); Monthly association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, heated pool, spa/hot tub, sauna, tennis, pickleball, shuffleboard, bocce, putting green, golf course, basketball court, pool, recreation facilities, management, manager on site, business center, library, cafe/restaurant, lobby, maintained community, internet included, security

Exterior

• Parking: Total parking for 7 vehicles; Attached carport with 4 covered/carport spaces; 3 open driveway spaces; Concrete driveway, covered and open parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electric service with circuit breakers; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Front entry; Faces east; Resale property
• Construction: Built with frame construction; Foam insulation; Vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof; Combination foundation; Aluminum skirt
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Porch; Shed(s); Landscaped lot; Public maintained paved asphalt road frontage; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric range / cooktop; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Humidity control
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s); Split bedroom layout; Partially furnished; Shutters on windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the main level; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $555 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 5.3% in Indian River Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#653 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.69%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,248
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3115 Palm Warbler Ct	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,429 (+2%)	9mo	$140,000	$98	88
7953 Horned Lark Cir	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,286 (-8%)	1mo	$130,000	$101	74
3005 Approach Shot Way	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,333 (-5%)	3mo	$149,900	$112	72
7921 Meadowlark Ln	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,301 (-7%)	2mo	$115,000	$88	68
7928 Meadowlark Ln	0.41mi	2/3.0	1,475 (+5%)	2mo	$65,000	$44	67
3425 Crabapple Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,395 (-1%)	18mo	$205,000	$147	61
7822 White Ibis Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,612 (+15%)	2mo	$115,000	$71	60
3305 Red Tailed Hawk Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,240 (-12%)	14mo	$179,000	$144	59
2948 Fiddlewood Cir	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,280 (-9%)	1mo	$122,000	$95	49
3033 Satinleaf Ln	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-11%)	4mo	$195,000	$156	46
3801 Meadowlark Cir	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	4mo	$152,000	$125	44
3813 Doral Ct	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,273 (-9%)	15mo	$230,000	$181	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $14,770
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $50,528
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,973 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $518/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$309
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $555

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,270

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $620	-5% $588	+0% $555	+5% $523	+10% $490
Rent	-10% $399	-5% $477	+0% $555	+5% $633	+10% $711
Rate	-1.0pp $613	-0.5pp $585	base $555	+0.5pp $526	+1.0pp $495

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3784 Sapodilla Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,300	$2.05	24d	1	1.01mi
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	14d	15	1.12mi
71 W Caribbean Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	24d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $309 · $3,708/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    price $115,000
18. 2026-05-06
    price $135,000
19. 2026-04-13
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $518 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$436/yr (+$36/mo · 84.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$518
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
• − Management: −$1,894
• − HOA: −$3,708
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $5,297
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,271
• After-tax cash flow: $5,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Indian River Estates

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #653
• US rank: #12946

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-20.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $115,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $135,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $145,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $518 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.