2107 Avensong Ln #105 · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$185,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,253 sqft · Condo public records · 214 Days on market

Built 2007 $148/sqft · 26% below area Est $253k · 26% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Bedroom/ 2.5 bathroom unit WITH garage in the gated community of 'Emerald Park Condominiums'! Minutes from the GULF, attractions, restaurants and more. Exterior showcases a covered front porch, and driveway parking. This unit boasts a spacious open concept floor plan featuring the staircase just off the entry way with 1/2 bath access, and laundry closet. Kitchen overlooks the living room and offers a breakfast bar, granite countertops, and pantry. The spacious living room has backyard access to a covered porch. Secondary bedroom and full guest bathroom featuring granite countertops and tub/shower combo located upstairs with master bedroom. The master bedroom and en-suite feature dual vanities, granite countertops, tub/shower combo and walk-in closet. Community amenities include pool and sun deck, clubhouse, and fitness center. HOA includes trash, water, internet, and basic cable. Call to schedule your private showing today! All Measurements approx. buyer to verify if important.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Covered front porch
• Backyard access

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BREAKFAST BAR
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LAUNDRY CLOSET
• BACKYARD ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $186k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $186k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,592 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.73%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,919
• List price: $185,900
• Delta: -26.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,678
• Equity at exit: $27,718

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $15,403
• Equity at exit: $16,073

Cash invested: $52,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,948 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$975
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,816/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,524

Max offer price $185,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,475
• Closing costs: $5,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,250	$2.07	13d	18	0.08mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	13d	1	0.27mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	13d	1	0.27mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,200	$1.43	13d	2	0.29mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	13d	1	0.31mi
1744 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	13d	1	0.42mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,792	$1.86	13d	12	0.43mi
1734 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	21d	1	0.44mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	21d	1	0.45mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	13d	1	0.47mi
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	21d	1	0.49mi
2521 Allison Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	21d	1	0.54mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,940	$1.91	13d	41	0.57mi
2110 Sterling Cove Blvd Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,800	$1.56	21d	1	0.59mi
2148 Sterling Cove Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,695	$1.47	21d	1	0.68mi
2917 Allison Ave Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,700	$1.07	21d	1	0.73mi
8623 N Lagoon Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1600	$2,350	$1.47	21d	1	0.96mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	21d	1	0.97mi
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$1,900	$1.34	13d	6	0.97mi
7664 Shadow Lake Dr Unit 1523352P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,210	$2.09	13d	1	0.99mi
8715 Surf Dr Unit 1523323P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$5,377	$4.50	13d	1	1.15mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	13d	1	1.23mi
204 Potters Bluff Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$1,651	$1.60	13d	12	1.30mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	21d	1	1.34mi
9902 S Thomas Dr Unit 1354966P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,970	$1.56	13d	1	1.41mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	21d	1	1.42mi
9815 S Thomas Dr Unit 1523339P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$4,018	$3.19	21d	1	1.44mi
7405A Beach Dr Unit 1355031P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$2,124	$1.65	21d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashinternetcablepoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,900 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,900 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,900 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,900 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,900 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,900 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,900 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,900 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,900 Active 204 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,900 Active 203 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,900 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,900 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,900 Active 198 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,900 Active 197 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,900 Active 196 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,900 Active 195 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,900 Active 194 DOM
18. 2026-03-30
    price $185,900 994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (994 chars)

    2 Bedroom/ 2.5 bathroom unit WITH garage in the gated community of 'Emerald Park Condominiums'! Minutes from the GULF, attractions, restaurants and more. Exterior showcases a covered front porch, and driveway parking. This unit boasts a spacious open concept floor plan featuring the staircase just off the entry way with 1/2 bath access, and laundry closet. Kitchen overlooks the living room and offers a breakfast bar, granite countertops, and pantry. The spacious living room has backyard access to a covered porch. Secondary bedroom and full guest bathroom featuring granite countertops and tub/shower combo located upstairs with master bedroom. The master bedroom and en-suite feature dual vanities, granite countertops, tub/shower combo and walk-in closet. Community amenities include pool and sun deck, clubhouse, and fitness center. HOA includes trash, water, internet, and basic cable. Call to schedule your private showing today! All Measurements approx. buyer to verify if important.

19. 2025-11-12
    listed $187,900 Active 994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (994 chars)

    2 Bedroom/ 2.5 bathroom unit WITH garage in the gated community of 'Emerald Park Condominiums'! Minutes from the GULF, attractions, restaurants and more. Exterior showcases a covered front porch, and driveway parking. This unit boasts a spacious open concept floor plan featuring the staircase just off the entry way with 1/2 bath access, and laundry closet. Kitchen overlooks the living room and offers a breakfast bar, granite countertops, and pantry. The spacious living room has backyard access to a covered porch. Secondary bedroom and full guest bathroom featuring granite countertops and tub/shower combo located upstairs with master bedroom. The master bedroom and en-suite feature dual vanities, granite countertops, tub/shower combo and walk-in closet. Community amenities include pool and sun deck, clubhouse, and fitness center. HOA includes trash, water, internet, and basic cable. Call to schedule your private showing today! All Measurements approx. buyer to verify if important.

20. 2021-11-17
    soldstatus $170,000
21. 2008-04-03
    soldstatus $207,900 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    TALK ABOUT MAINTENANCE FREE LIVING!!! Association fees include, PHONE, CABLE, INTERNET, WATER, SEWER, GARBAGE, LANDSCAPING!!! 2 Bedroom, 2 1/2 Bath Townhome In New Exclusive Gated Community. This 1253 Sq. Ft. Home Offers A Single Car Garage With Auto Opener, Custom Cabinetry, Solid Surface Countertops, A Full Kitchen Appliance Package, And Many More Upgrades. The Community Itself Will Offer A Clubhouse, Pool, Fitness Center & Extensive Landscaping. This Area Is Located Approximately 1 Mile From The Beach & Close To Area Shopping & Restaurants. (All Room Sizes Are Estimates - Please Measure If Necessary) Seller is a licensed realtor in the state of GA.

22. 2007-10-11
    listed $207,900 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    TALK ABOUT MAINTENANCE FREE LIVING!!! Association fees include, PHONE, CABLE, INTERNET, WATER, SEWER, GARBAGE, LANDSCAPING!!! 2 Bedroom, 2 1/2 Bath Townhome In New Exclusive Gated Community. This 1253 Sq. Ft. Home Offers A Single Car Garage With Auto Opener, Custom Cabinetry, Solid Surface Countertops, A Full Kitchen Appliance Package, And Many More Upgrades. The Community Itself Will Offer A Clubhouse, Pool, Fitness Center & Extensive Landscaping. This Area Is Located Approximately 1 Mile From The Beach & Close To Area Shopping & Restaurants. (All Room Sizes Are Estimates - Please Measure If Necessary) Seller is a licensed realtor in the state of GA.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,816 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,816 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,413
• − Property taxes: −$1,816
• − Insurance: −$930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
• − Management: −$1,870
• − Depreciation: −$5,408
• Taxable income: $1,067
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$256
• After-tax cash flow: $3,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $185,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $187,900 CPARMLS
• 2021-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2008-04-03 Sold (MLS) $207,900 CPARMLS
• 2007-10-11 Listed $207,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,816 · -12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.