2027 Woodland Dr · Cadiz, KY 42211

$159,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 875 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 0.28 ac lot $182/sqft · at area comps Est $163k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New construction. 2 bedroom 1 bath lake area home.

Key facts

• Central heat and air
• Stainless appliances
• Lake area home

Tags

• LAKE AREA HOME
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• MAINTENANCE FREE SMART SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-42/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Cadiz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#354 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Trigg County (town): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #90 of 165 in KY (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Trigg County Primary School (516 students, 66% FRL); Trigg County Middle School (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 440 students, 60% FRL); Trigg County High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 617 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 390 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Trigg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trigg County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $138,650 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,833
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -2.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2027 Woodland Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	875 (0%)	1mo	$163,000	$186	99
444 Mayapple Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	910 (+4%)	33mo	$141,500	$155	37
347 Rabbit Rdg	1.38mi	2/1.5	784 (-10%)	14mo	$80,000	$102	34
89 Oakley Dr	1.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,031 (+18%)	10mo	$475,000	$461	22
328 Riverview Trl	1.40mi	2/2.0	980 (+12%)	26mo	$88,500	$90	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-25,965
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-22,811
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42211

• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,386 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $158,497

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $51	+0% $-3	+5% $-58	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $-58	+0% $-3	+5% $51	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $37	base $-3	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Cable availableSeptic tank
• Home design: Single-family residenceResidential property1 story
• Construction: Frame constructionMetal roofSlab foundationBuilt with a single story
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveRefrigeratorCooktop
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-07-06
   days on market $159,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-07-05
   days on market $159,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-07-04
   days on market $159,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-07-03
   days on market $159,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-07-02
   days on market $159,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-07-01
   days on market $159,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-30
   days on market $159,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-29
   days on market $159,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-28
   days on market $159,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-27
    days on market $159,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-26
    days on market $159,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-22
    days on market $159,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-21
    days on market $159,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-19
    days on market $159,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-18
    days on market $159,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-06-17
    days on market $159,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-06-16
    days on market $159,000 Active 36 DOM
18. 2026-06-15
    days on market $159,000 Active 35 DOM
19. 2026-06-14
    days on market $159,000 Active 33 DOM
20. 2026-06-12
    days on market $159,000 Active 32 DOM
21. 2026-06-09
    days on market $159,000 Active 29 DOM
22. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 28 DOM
23. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 27 DOM
24. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 24 DOM
25. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 23 DOM
26. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 22 DOM
27. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 21 DOM
28. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 20 DOM
29. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 19 DOM
30. 2026-05-11
    listed $159,000 Active 175-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,331
• − Management: −$1,331
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$2,736
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$657
• After-tax cash flow: $615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is move-in ready with a fresh interior and exterior, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Furniture — Ready for immediate move-in ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Trigg County Primary School Middle Trigg County Middle School F KY #125/217 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Trigg County High School F KY #97/254 Nat'l #10,416/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trigg County
• NCES district ID: 2105580
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,636
• Composite: 26.87/100
• National rank: #7100
• State rank: #90 of 165 in KY

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Cadiz

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #16772

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Trigg · 14,071 people
• Metro: Clarksville, TN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 12,912
• Household income: $54,039
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Trigg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,071 people
• By 2030: 13,950 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 13,575 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 13,065 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 11,990 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 10,802 · -23.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Trigg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.2% · R 75.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -29.8pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+49.6 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+29.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.15%
• Current HPI: 130.8351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Cable availableSeptic tank
• Home design: Single-family residenceResidential property1 story
• Construction: Frame constructionMetal roofSlab foundationBuilt with a single story
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveRefrigeratorCooktop
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $159,000 WKRMLS