2027 Woodland Dr · Cadiz, KY 42211

$159,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 875 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 0.28 ac lot $182/sqft · at area comps Est $161k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New construction. 2 bedroom 1 bath lake area home. Home features central heat and air, within 5 minutes from boat ramp, stainless appliances and maintenance free smart siding

Key facts

• Central heat and air
• Stainless appliances
• Lake area home

Tags

• LAKE AREA HOME
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• MAINTENANCE FREE SMART SIDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Cable available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; 1 story
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built with a single story
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Cooktop
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($191/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.6% in Cadiz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#354 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Trigg County (town): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #90 of 165 in KY (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Trigg County Primary School (516 students, 66% FRL); Trigg County Middle School (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 440 students, 60% FRL); Trigg County High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 617 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Trigg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trigg County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $141,106 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.43%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,609
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -1.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-24,729
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-20,141
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42211

• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,411 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $71	+0% $16	+5% $-39	+10% $-94
Rent	-10% $-96	-5% $-40	+0% $16	+5% $72	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $56	base $16	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $159,000 Active 175-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,355
• − Management: −$1,355
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$2,488
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$597
• After-tax cash flow: $788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is move-in ready with a fresh interior and exterior, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Furniture — Ready for immediate move-in

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Furniture — Ready for immediate move-in ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trigg County
• NCES district ID: 2105580
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,636
• Composite: 26.87/100
• National rank: #7100
• State rank: #90 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cadiz

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #16772

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,912

Population outlook (Trigg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,071 people
• By 2030: 13,950 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 13,575 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 13,065 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 11,990 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 10,802 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trigg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.2% · R 75.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -29.8pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+49.6 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+29.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.15%
• Current HPI: 130.8351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $159,000 WKRMLS