11453 Bayview Edison Rd #16 · Bay View, WA 98273

$182,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2015 Est $257k · 29% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very Rare, View Mobile home with southwesterly water views in Bayview. This 2 bedroom 1.75 bath home is 1,344 sqft, open concept living/dining and kitchen space. Abundance of windows to enjoy the views. Primary bedroom ensuite bathroom generous closet. Spectacular views, sunsets, water views, farmland, from living room, kitchen, front sitting room and covered front entry with ramp. Many custom extra storage and work shop. Quiet for nature lovers, it’s just a short stroll across the street to the picturesque Bayshore Trail, ideal for walking or cycling along the waterfront. Covered front porch with sunset views. Gravel parking for 3 cars. 55+ Community park. This has all the right feat

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Open concept living
• Custom extra storage

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• ABUNDANCE OF WINDOWS
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• CUSTOM EXTRA STORAGE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $182k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $182k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#281 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Burlington-Edison School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #229 of 291 in WA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bay View Elementary (409 students, 47% FRL); Burlington Edison High School (1,139 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $177,025 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.60%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $256,704
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11453 Bayview Edison Rd #16	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$182,500	$136	99
11453 Bayview Edison Rd #25	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,142 (-15%)	7mo	$50,000	$44	69
11453 Bayview Edison Rd #36	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,188 (-12%)	16mo	$227,500	$191	68
13357 Josh Wilson Rd	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,188 (-12%)	21mo	$500,000	$421	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,281
• Equity at exit: $27,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $12,264
• Equity at exit: $15,779

Cash invested: $51,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98273

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$957
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$228 /mo · $2,738/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $182,500

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $450	-5% $387	+0% $324	+5% $260	+10% $197
Rent	-10% $165	-5% $244	+0% $324	+5% $403	+10% $482
Rate	-1.0pp $415	-0.5pp $370	base $324	+0.5pp $276	+1.0pp $228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,625
• Closing costs: $5,475
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $182,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,223
• − Property taxes: −$2,738
• − Insurance: −$912
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − Depreciation: −$5,309
• Taxable income: $1,038
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$249
• After-tax cash flow: $3,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burlington-Edison School District
• NCES district ID: 5300780
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,128
• Composite: 35.41/100
• National rank: #9782
• State rank: #229 of 291 in WA

Livability — Bay View

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #281
• US rank: #9698

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay View, WA
• County: Skagit County · 118,108 people
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• Population (ZIP): 30,001
• Household income: $76,717
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1045.0

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -525.00%
• Current HPI: 395.3742
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.33%
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $182,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-13.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $298 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.