3077 W Park Plaza Dr · Snowflake, AZ 85937

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1998 0.37 ac lot Est $253k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living In the heart of Snowflake AZ! Comfortable family home or mountain getaway. Big .30 lot with a well appointed three bedroom two bath home. Open floor plan, vaulted ceilings. Kitchen features lots of oak cabinets and a new gas stove and dishwasher. Tiled dining area. Separate primary bedroom and bath. Two good sized guest rooms. Inside laundry room with extra storage. Fully fenced back yard. Detached oversized two car garage perfect for a work shop! Large covered front porch to enjoy the beautiful White Mountain weather.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Big lot
• Oak cabinets

Tags

• BIG LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• OAK CABINETS
• NEW GAS STOVE
• NEW DISHWASHER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-230 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (35.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.0% in Snowflake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#46 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Snowflake Unified District (4391) (town): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #36 of 249 in AZ (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Highland Primary School (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #180 of 1,109 statewide, top 17%, 525 students, 45% FRL); Snowflake Junior High School (math 51% / reading 52%, grade C, #22 of 218 statewide, top 10%, 486 students, 44% FRL); Snowflake High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #38 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 943 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 297 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $299k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $191,868 (35.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.30%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,344
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3055 W Ridge View Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (+10%)	15mo	$280,000	$156	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $147,998
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.34×
• Total profit: $447,038
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85937

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $644/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,210

Max offer price $258,289

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-61	-5% $-146	+0% $-230	+5% $-315	+10% $-757
Rent	-10% $-382	-5% $-306	+0% $-230	+5% $-155	+10% $-79
Rate	-1.0pp $-80	-0.5pp $-154	base $-230	+0.5pp $-308	+1.0pp $-387

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 84 DOM
18. 2026-03-25
    price $299,000 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Country living In the heart of Snowflake AZ! Comfortable family home or mountain getaway. Big .30 lot with a well appointed three bedroom two bath home. Open floor plan, vaulted ceilings. Kitchen features lots of oak cabinets and a new gas stove and dishwasher. Tiled dining area. Separate primary bedroom and bath. Two good sized guest rooms. Inside laundry room with extra storage. Fully fenced back yard. Detached oversized two car garage perfect for a work shop! Large covered front porch to enjoy the beautiful White Mountain weather.

19. 2026-03-25
    price $299,000 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Country living In the heart of Snowflake AZ! Comfortable family home or mountain getaway. Big .30 lot with a well appointed three bedroom two bath home. Open floor plan, vaulted ceilings. Kitchen features lots of oak cabinets and a new gas stove and dishwasher. Tiled dining area. Separate primary bedroom and bath. Two good sized guest rooms. Inside laundry room with extra storage. Fully fenced back yard. Detached oversized two car garage perfect for a work shop! Large covered front porch to enjoy the beautiful White Mountain weather.

20. 2026-03-07
    listed $350,000 Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Country living In the heart of Snowflake AZ! Comfortable family home or mountain getaway. Big .30 lot with a well appointed three bedroom two bath home. Open floor plan, vaulted ceilings. Kitchen features lots of oak cabinets and a new gas stove and dishwasher. Tiled dining area. Separate primary bedroom and bath. Two good sized guest rooms. Inside laundry room with extra storage. Fully fenced back yard. Detached oversized two car garage perfect for a work shop! Large covered front porch to enjoy the beautiful White Mountain weather.

21. 2026-03-07
    listed $350,000 Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Country living In the heart of Snowflake AZ! Comfortable family home or mountain getaway. Big .30 lot with a well appointed three bedroom two bath home. Open floor plan, vaulted ceilings. Kitchen features lots of oak cabinets and a new gas stove and dishwasher. Tiled dining area. Separate primary bedroom and bath. Two good sized guest rooms. Inside laundry room with extra storage. Fully fenced back yard. Detached oversized two car garage perfect for a work shop! Large covered front porch to enjoy the beautiful White Mountain weather.

22. 2017-12-18
    soldstatus $127,000
23. 2017-12-18
    soldstatus $127,000
24. 2013-10-28
    soldstatus $113,500
25. 2011-03-02
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $644 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,973 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,330/yr (+$111/mo · 206.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$644
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$8,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,979
• After-tax cash flow: $-787/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowflake Unified District (4391)
• NCES district ID: 0407820
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,767
• Composite: 45.91/100
• National rank: #2545
• State rank: #36 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Snowflake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #8817

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Snowflake, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,975

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.31%
• Current HPI: 480.9577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+171.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $299,000 WMMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $299,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $350,000 WMMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2017-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-18 Sold (MLS) $127,000 WMMLS
• 2013-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $113,500 Public Records
• 2011-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $644 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.