9415 Dazzling Tentacle Dr · Baytown, TX 77521

$255,690

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $130/sqft · 14% below area Est $297k · 14% under $192/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW! Lennar Watermill Collection "Littleton" Plan with Brick Elevation "J3" in Scotts Bend in Baytown Crossings! On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests. * * HOA includes Internet service and front lawn maintenance!!

Key facts

• Central game room
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL GAME ROOM
• THREE SECONDARY BEDROOMS
• HOA INCLUDES INTERNET SERVICE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Banuelos El (math 33% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 765 students, 79% FRL); Highlands J H (math 46% / reading 37%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 61% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 791 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,292 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,791
• List price: $255,690
• Delta: -13.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9319 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,968 (0%)	0mo	$255,690	$130	97
9227 Alaska Shores Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,900 (-4%)	0mo	$272,290	$143	88
9235 Alaska Shores Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-1%)	0mo	$309,990	$159	87
9315 Captain Terrace Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-4%)	0mo	$318,990	$170	82
9411 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-11%)	0mo	$286,990	$163	79
9331 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-11%)	1mo	$288,990	$164	79
9323 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-11%)	0mo	$244,890	$139	77
9327 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-13%)	0mo	$241,440	$140	73
5243 El Tigre Ln	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,174 (+10%)	1mo	$259,000	$119	69
9515 Twilight Briar Ln	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,940 (-1%)	0mo	$295,000	$152	69
9227 Callum Nest Ct	0.09mi	4/3.5	2,233 (+14%)	1mo	$329,990	$148	68
4314 Mulberry Sage Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,806 (-8%)	1mo	$268,000	$148	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-58,530
• Equity at exit: $38,124

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-81,499
• Equity at exit: $22,107

Cash invested: $71,593 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 124 active · 78 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.1 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,450 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 74 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 791
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,203 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$320 /mo · $3,835/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,480

Max offer price $224,042

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-42	-5% $-130	+0% $-219	+5% $-307	+10% $-395
Rent	-10% $-393	-5% $-306	+0% $-219	+5% $-132	+10% $-45
Rate	-1.0pp $-90	-0.5pp $-154	base $-219	+0.5pp $-285	+1.0pp $-352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,922
• Closing costs: $7,671
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5130 Red Drum Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,050	$1.35	0d	1	0.23mi
4606 Wild Flora Way Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,366	$1.04	62d	1	0.44mi
9502 Brookside Point Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2119	$2,800	$1.32	93d	1	0.75mi
6019 Standpiper Loop Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,125	$1.28	4d	1	0.76mi
8814 Bar Harbor Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,896	$1.13	73d	1	0.80mi
9214 Burnet Fields Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,801	$1.23	93d	1	0.81mi
4151 Saw Mill Peak Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1619	$1,951	$1.21	7d	1	0.81mi
4730 Black Rock St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,973	$1.28	20d	1	0.84mi
8311 Caraway Lake Cir Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2391	$2,450	$1.02	12d	1	0.87mi
4847 Camden Bristol Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2289	$2,695	$1.18	0d	1	0.88mi
8110 Berkely Ct Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,946	$1.06	54d	1	0.89mi
5426 Cinnamon Lake Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$2,200	$0.98	93d	1	0.96mi
5631 Cinnamon Lake Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	1999	$2,126	$1.06	4d	1	0.99mi
8002 Sesame St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,100	$1.15	67d	1	1.12mi
8026 Rosemary Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2390	$2,150	$0.90	93d	1	1.17mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure included
• Financial info: Annual association fee of $2,300
• HOA & community: Association (ACMI) with annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationBuilt in 2026Approximately 1,968 total building area
• Construction: Brick and cement siding constructionComposition roofSlab foundationNew construction by Lennar Homes Village Builders
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot settingComposition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 15)Three secondary bedrooms on the second floor (approx. 10 x 11, 10 x 10, 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Game room on the second floor (approx. 12 x 20)Family room on the first floor (approx. 15 x 16)Dining room on the first floor (approx. 10 x 9)
• Laundry & utility: No lease considered (owner/occupancy detail)

HOA detail $192/mo · $2,304/yr

• Likely covers: waterinternet

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-18
   price $255,690 638-char remark
2. 2026-05-15
   price $259,990 430-char remark
3. 2026-05-14
   price $259,990 638-char remark
4. 2026-05-12
   price $281,990 430-char remark
5. 2026-05-11
   price $281,990 638-char remark
6. 2026-05-08
   price $278,790 430-char remark
7. 2026-05-07
   listed $278,790 Active 638-char remark
8. 2026-05-06
   listed $299,990 Active 430-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,835
• − Insurance: −$1,278
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,115
• − Management: −$2,115
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$7,438
• Taxable loss: −$6,973
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $-951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase property value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Enhances the overall aesthetic and can increase property value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Banuelos El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Highlands J H F TX #595/1,662 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Goose Creek Memorial F TX #924/1,632 Nat'l #9,347/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure included
• Financial info: Annual association fee of $2,300
• HOA & community: Association (ACMI) with annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationBuilt in 2026Approximately 1,968 total building area
• Construction: Brick and cement siding constructionComposition roofSlab foundationNew construction by Lennar Homes Village Builders
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot settingComposition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 15)Three secondary bedrooms on the second floor (approx. 10 x 11, 10 x 10, 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Game room on the second floor (approx. 12 x 20)Family room on the first floor (approx. 15 x 16)Dining room on the first floor (approx. 10 x 9)
• Laundry & utility: No lease considered (owner/occupancy detail)

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $255,690 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $281,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $278,790 HARMLS