9726 Banderilla Dr · Lake Don Pedro, CA 95329

$249,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 1990 1.10 ac lot Est $484k · 48% under $110/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new home near Lake Don Pedro! This roomy ranchette offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a handy half bathperfect for families who love both comfort and space. You'll have access to the Hacienda clubhouse, where you can swim in the pool, stay active in the fitness center, or gather with friends and neighbors. With zoning for animals, kids can enjoy the joy of raising pets or horses right at home. Surrounded by beautiful views, this property is less than two hours from most Bay Area locations, making weekend getaways easy. Plus, you're just a short drive from Yosemite National Park, Columbia State Park, Dodge Ridge Ski Resort, Pinecrest Lake, and family-friendly fun at B

Key facts

• Zoning for animals
• Fitness center
• Hacienda clubhouse

Tags

• HACIENDA CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER
• ZONING FOR ANIMALS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Don Pedro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#867 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, housing B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.84%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $484,000
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14377 Avenida Central	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,902 (-5%)	7mo	$460,000	$242	68
9739 Carrizo Way	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,917 (-4%)	3mo	$480,000	$250	62
9811 Buena Vista Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,828 (-9%)	18mo	$435,000	$238	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $26,160
• Equity at exit: $92,935

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $97,334
• Equity at exit: $129,629

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95329

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,716/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$110
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,216

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $365	-5% $295	+0% $224	+5% $153	+10% $83
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $125	+0% $224	+5% $323	+10% $422
Rate	-1.0pp $350	-0.5pp $288	base $224	+0.5pp $159	+1.0pp $93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14575 Avenida Central La Grange, CA	3.0	2.0	1982	$2,500	$1.26	15d	1	0.55mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $110 · $1,320/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,716 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,716 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,716
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$1,354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$325
• After-tax cash flow: $3,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mariposa County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623940
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,669
• Composite: 29.75/100
• National rank: #6438
• State rank: #282 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Don Pedro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #867
• US rank: #23601

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Don Pedro, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,339

Population outlook (Mariposa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,956 people
• By 2030: 15,078 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 13,413 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 12,232 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 11,143 · -30.2%
• By 2100: 10,187 · -36.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mariposa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.1% · R 59.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+18.1 2016: R+23.2 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Current HPI: 163.9206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,716 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.