106 Pence St · East Rockingham, NC 28379

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 192 Days on market

Built 2025 0.59 ac lot Est $126k · 11% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Immaculate 2025 Cavco 3 Bed, 2 Bath Home on Half Acre - Like New! Step into this pristine, like-new 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home, beautifully situated on a spacious half-acre lot. Built in 2025 by Cavco Industries, this home is ideal for first-time homebuyers or savvy investors alike. Inside, you'll find a fresh, modern interior that still carries that brand-new home scent. The spacious master suite offers an oversized soaking tub, separate stand-up shower, single vanity, and a walk-in closet. The second and third bedrooms are generously sized with ample closet space—perfect for guests, a home office, or family. The open kitchen features a brand-new refrigerator, stove, and dis

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Private laundry area
• Open kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS HALF ACRE LOT
• OVERSIZED SOAKING TUB
• OPEN KITCHEN
• PROFESSIONALLY LANDSCAPED YARD
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATE LAUNDRY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#579 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Richmond County Schools (town): math 30% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #139 of 178 in NC (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Rockingham Elementary (math 28% / reading 32%, grade F, #965 of 1,410 statewide, top 69%, 514 students, 99% FRL); Cordova Middle (math 17% / reading 36%, grade F, #381 of 475 statewide, top 81%, 270 students, 99% FRL); Richmond Senior High (math 58% / reading 38%, grade D, #329 of 535 statewide, top 62%, 1,286 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.01%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,464
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Watkins Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,196 (-2%)	7mo	$124,525	$104	82
57 Aleo Seventh Ave	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,176 (-3%)	16mo	$52,000	$44	74
290 Airport Rd	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (+4%)	10mo	$35,000	$28	68
128 Aleo Ninth Ave	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,180 (-3%)	16mo	$80,000	$68	66
403 Airport Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-2%)	1mo	$135,000	$114	63
164 Seaboard St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-1%)	18mo	$142,000	$118	63
213 9th Avenue Aleo Ave	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,078 (-11%)	15mo	$44,900	$42	52
131 Mill St	0.52mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,150 (-5%)	12mo	$119,000	$103	47
213 Hilltop Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-8%)	7mo	$152,500	$136	46
301 Beaverwood Ct	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,056 (-13%)	7mo	$110,000	$104	44
164 Sandhill Rd	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,083 (-11%)	19mo	$143,000	$132	40
104 Wallace Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,288 (+6%)	20mo	$27,500	$21	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-5,994
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $16,340
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28379

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,556 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $358	-5% $310	+0% $262	+5% $213	+10% $165
Rent	-10% $139	-5% $200	+0% $262	+5% $323	+10% $385
Rate	-1.0pp $332	-0.5pp $297	base $262	+0.5pp $225	+1.0pp $189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-20
   price $140,000
3. 2025-09-09
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $969
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$233
• After-tax cash flow: $2,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703870
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,224
• Composite: 26.97/100
• National rank: #7076
• State rank: #139 of 178 in NC

Livability — East Rockingham

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #579
• US rank: #21339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Rockingham, NC
• Population (ZIP): 24,068

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,892 people
• By 2030: 41,257 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 37,629 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 33,655 · -21.5%
• By 2075: 23,992 · -44.1%
• By 2100: 14,782 · -65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.9) · D 39.2% · R 60.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.4pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.9 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+10.1 2012: D+2.7 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.10%
• Current HPI: 203.0628
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $140,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $150,000 Hive MLS