Gerson Plan · Uhland, TX 78640

$223,249

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $223,249 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $238,510.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 577 students, 71% FRL); D J Red Simon Middle (math 16% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 733 students, 78% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 43% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hays CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2089 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $182,011 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.78%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,510
• List price: $223,249
• Delta: -6.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
192 Pink Footed Pass	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,354 (0%)	2mo	$202,490	$150	79
143 Pink Footed Pass	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,354 (0%)	2mo	$207,490	$153	76
289 Speckled Belly Bnd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+4%)	2mo	$217,999	$154	74
747 Whoopers Loop	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+4%)	1mo	$221,999	$157	74
674 Whoopers Loop	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+4%)	2mo	$225,999	$160	73
127 Orange Flame Blvd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,329 (-2%)	2mo	$219,990	$166	72
184 Pink Footed Pass	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,213 (-10%)	2mo	$203,490	$168	61
135 Pink Footed Pass	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	2mo	$212,490	$143	56
148 Orange Flame Blvd	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,485 (+10%)	2mo	$231,990	$156	55
191 Pink Footed Pass	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+11%)	1mo	$189,999	$127	55
135 Orange Flame Blvd	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,485 (+10%)	2mo	$231,990	$156	54
1205 Celosia Loop	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,485 (+10%)	1mo	$231,990	$156	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-57,356
• Equity at exit: $35,563

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-87,702
• Equity at exit: $20,622

Cash invested: $66,783 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 38 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.3 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $236,984 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 140 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2089
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,251
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$298 /mo · $3,578/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,086

Max offer price $208,064

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-128	+0% $-210	+5% $-293	+10% $-375
Rent	-10% $-354	-5% $-282	+0% $-210	+5% $-139	+10% $-67
Rate	-1.0pp $-90	-0.5pp $-150	base $-210	+0.5pp $-272	+1.0pp $-335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,627
• Closing costs: $7,155
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
787 Arnold Loop , TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,300	$1.25	9d	1	0.30mi
263 Speckled Belly Bnd Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,600	$1.00	34d	1	0.38mi
222 Arnold Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,673	$1.10	21d	1	0.47mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	73d	1	0.50mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	93d	1	0.50mi
151 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,600	$1.08	73d	1	0.50mi
129 Pineland Ave Niederwald, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,349	$0.89	13d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $223,249 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $223,249 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $223,249 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $223,249 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $223,249 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $223,249 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $223,249 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $223,249 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $223,249 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $223,249 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $223,249 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $223,249 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $223,249 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $223,249 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $223,249 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $222,999 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $222,999 Active 150 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $222,999 Active 149 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $222,999 Active 148 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $222,999 Active 147 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $222,999 Active 146 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $222,999 Active 145 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $222,999 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $222,999 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $222,999 Active 141 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    price $222,999 Active 140 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $220,999 Active 140 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $220,999 Active 139 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $218,999 Active 137 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $218,999 Active 136 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $218,999 Active 135 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $218,999 Active 134 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $218,999 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $218,999 Active 132 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $218,999 Active 131 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $218,999 Active 130 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $218,999 Active 128 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $218,999 Active 126 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $218,999 Active 125 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $218,999 Active 122 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $218,999 Active 121 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $218,999 Active 120 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $218,999 Active 119 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $218,999 Active 117 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $218,999 Active 113 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $218,999 Active 112 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $218,999 Active 111 DOM
48. 2026-06-05
    days on market $218,999 Active 108 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $218,999 Active 107 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $218,999 Active 106 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,360
• − Property taxes: −$3,578
• − Insurance: −$1,193
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,747
• − Management: −$1,747
• − Depreciation: −$6,938
• Taxable loss: −$6,722
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,613
• After-tax cash flow: $-911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,770–$20,310 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. A fresh coat of paint and cleaning gutters would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hemphill El F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle D J Red Simon Middle F TX #1,466/1,662 Nat'l #11,948/14,009 High Lehman H S F TX #1,234/1,632 Nat'l #12,251/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 54/100

Livability — Uhland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1385
• US rank: #23774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Uhland, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $218,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $218,490 Zillow